저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 장기 복리 투자와 집중 포트폴리오 보유가 부의 핵심이며, 단기 등락에 흔들리지 말고 우량 기업을 오래 보유해야 한다는 메시지. 장기 복리의 중요성: 인도 Sensex가 1979년 100에서 현재 약 80,000(800배)으로 상승한 사례를 들며, 복리를 통해 장기 보유 시 큰 부를 만들 수 있다고 강조. 버핏의 집중 투자·장기 보유 철학에 영향을 받았다고 설명. 단기 매매와 조기 매도의 문제: HDFC Bank를 1995년 조기 매도해 큰 수익을 놓친 경험을 소개. 세금과 재투자 기회 상실로 인해 장기 보유가 유리하다고 주장. 좋은 기업의 선별: 전체 약 4,000개 상장사 중 장기 복리가 가능한 우량 기업은 300~400개 수준이라고 언급. 10~15년 단위 성장 가능성을 보고 종목을 골라야 한다고 조언. 시장 전망: 지수 밸류에이션이 과거보다 비싸졌지만 인도 GDP 성장과 시장 확대로 기회는 여전히 크다고 봄. 향후 2년 내 Nifty 35,000 도달 가능성을 언급하고, 하방은 제한적(약 23,000 포인트 수준 하락 가능성), 상방은 약 8,000포인트 상승 여지가 있어 비대칭적 수익 구조라고 평가. 다만 6개월 정도 변동성이 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 리스크와 심리: 주가 조정과 뉴스에 흔들리지 않는 인내, 욕심 통제(지수 대비 2~3%p 초과 수익 기대 정도가 현실적), 기업의 사업·경영·성장을 주가보다 우선 점검할 것을 강조. 투자 방법: 소액 투자자는 우선 적립식이나 펀드를 활용하고, 집중 투자는 여유 자금으로 장기 보유할 것을 권고. 출연자 전망 요약: 인도 주식시장은 장기적으로 우상향하나 단기 변동성 존재, 지수 상단은 밸류에이션 부담 있으나 상승 여력 유효.
다듬은 글
Hello, I am Anil Singh and this is our special series dedicated to Teachers Day and mentors, Market Mentors and you all are welcome to it. Through this series, we are talking to five such big giants of the market who have deep experience of many decades in the market and today we will try to bring their experiences and their learnings of so many years in the market in front of you so that you can become a better investor and in this series, today I am going to introduce you to such a guru of the market who has not only created huge wealth for himself and his investors but also has amazing experience in choosing multibagger shares and the most important thing is that we have to make money but we have to make it very big.
He is a master of this thought process and we will also learn from him some of the best tips to strengthen the portfolio. So without any delay, let us introduce you to Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman and Co-Founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the market expert and wealth creation guru. Ramdev Sir, you are most welcome.
First look at the teachers. Many congratulations and best wishes to you and thank you too. We have a lot to learn from you in life, oh no sir, we always learn from you, market is the biggest guru. Of course, the market is the biggest guru, but we get to learn and understand a lot from the real guru.
One thing I have seen different in you from others. Although we meet many big names in the market. But your thinking is very big. I understand this because whenever I talk to you, you do not talk about making small money. You will always talk about market cap, from this much market cap, this much market cap will become this much, it will become this much, that is, this much time will pass and I remember you had told me in a show that there is more money in this market than there is water in Ganga, it is much more than that, generally no person thinks like this.
We feel that if we make 10, 20, 50% and it doubles then we are a great emperor. How do we get this thought process? Please teach us this and explain it to us. I do n't know where it came from [laughs] but we started it just like everybody else did. It was started in 87, right? I think this is from Buffedology.
Buffett's long term thinking was to buy fewer companies, buy quality companies, you know, and have a focused portfolio, buy and hold, buy and hold, so he taught it, he talked about it, correct, so if you buy and hold, then compounding is required, then we [sound of clearing throat] or if you kept it for 10 years, 20 years, then at what rate did your company, that is, your investment, grow, from 15% to 20% to 25%, that is the thought process, first of all, we learned compounding in 91, before I met Buffett, I learned compounding from the late Chandrakant ji, correct, in 91, and combined the market and compounding, so now my thinking is this, that is, you should make it as long as you want, you have to think for 100 years, think for 100 years, that can only be done through compounding, correct, you know, well, I have seen the market for 45 years, I remember the Sussex of 100, right now it was 80, right, so this is what happens.
It is 800 times 800 times, yes this happens, I mean there is no doubt that the next 800 times will also happen again, we have spent 45 years now, it may take 50 years or 40 years, this will happen again, now what happens in this, it will happen, so this is 99% my given, it is a given, now the question is that whatever is going to happen is known but when it will happen is not known and that frustration which is there like [sound of clearing throat] the market has not moved for two years, the index is the same, it is hovering at 23 24 23 24, it means the public is tired, ok, it means the regulators are also tired, the bankers are tired, everyone is tired, so they should sit quietly due to tiredness.
Well brother, when he comes, he will come with great force. It will come late but it will come right. This confidence to me means how much premium multiple will you drop? You made 24 into 21. Made 21 into 20. You wo n't do anything with 20 next year. Meaning if you keep revolving around 24 it will become 18.
And if you wait for one more year then it will become 16. So it is not like that. It is late but not dark. The market will rise. If the market comes well, it will come with such force that you will not believe it, so what happens is that at the top you do not know when the bottom will come and from the bottom you do not know when the top will come, but what is this pace, the pace of the index is 12-13%, you believe it to be 15-17% and if you are a great archer then you earn 202, that is given, I mean there is no such doubt in my mind, you have to invest lakh crores, invest lakh crores, you have as much devotion as you have power, start with ₹1 crore, you are a student, start with 1 lakh, start there, but this is the game of compounding and you will not find such a component country.
We do n't I get the point. You gave the data exactly how Sensex started from 100 in 1979. Today in 47 years it has become 80,000. 800 times it became 47 but generally the thought process of people is that brother, my share has become 10-20%. It became 50%, it became 100%. There is a lot. What is the plan?
How to change this thought process of earning big ? To digest the profit, you will have to increase your capacity. If we digest the profit, it means 10 becomes 20, then brother the share is still cheap because the share company is moving ahead, the company is moving ahead at a very fast, you have to see that the race of the company and the money you are going to make, it is not that the company is growing at 20% and you have earned 100 taka and that too means your profit has increased 10 times and the profit of the company has just doubled, correct then it is a different matter, but generally what happens as per the portfolio, I am talking about in the portfolio or any company, you bought something cheap, the company is running at 25%, you doubled in 3 years, but it came to light that from there also you can earn 25 taka in 10 years, it will become 10 times, that is the understanding that 25 taka ran for 10 years, any company or bank or anyone, what happened in HDFC Bank, from 95 to 2025, non-stop, we have given you 25 taka non-stop, now you [Sound of clearing throat] I had bought it earlier, now I will tell you my sad story 95, I bought 5 lakh 12,000 shares, bought it for ₹38, sold it for ₹54, sold it for ₹55, the story ends for me, I made 50 taka, but you think what did I miss, thousands of rupees, correct correct, correct, I had no doubt about that, the company will earn 30 taka above, every year it will earn 30-40 lakhs, I had no doubt about that, it is not that the company is bad, it will not earn, I mean, okay, I knew that this was going to happen, still I lost my mind, so what will you say, what we booked profit, right, in such a situation, yes, yes, then you cannot go wrong by booking profits.
So that understanding that I understood later, now we bought it in 2002, we [sound of clearing throat] made money for 20 years after that. So what it is is that well there is very little company. This is also a special thing. What is our problem? Not every company grows 15 taka, 20 taka, 25 taka. Correct.
That means, out of your 4000 companies, hardly 300-400 companies are good companies. Where compounding will take place in this manner. Correct. So you have to sit in those companies where you see a picture of 10 years, 15 years like this and at least [sound of clearing throat] you have to stay in the market, right?
You can move from one company to another. Okay brother, I left this company, this company has grown a lot, now I feel it will not grow further, I have gone to another company, but total allocation in the market. You have 10 crores, the entire 10 crores, you work 24 hours a day and night. This is the biggest thing, I mean, my most unique thing has been that since I started in 87, I have never had one thing in my pocket.
Okay, I am always an investor, always 100 out of 100, ok, not 1101, ok, 99.9% leverage, you have to keep cash. Yes, whether the market is bullish or bearish, it is good to stay put. Bharat Mata ki Jai Mata Di. Oh wow, what is the problem in that? Whenever the market falls very hard, like my portfolio fell first in Harsh Mehta's time, in 92, my portfolio from 30 crores became 10 crores.
The portfolio became 30 of one and 30 of one became 10, 30 of one became 10, so what did people think, brother, if it became 30 of 10 then how did you feel, hey brother, my one became 10 of one, I am looking at it, yes yes right now, yes, otherwise it will seem that my 20 crores are gone. Yes, then 10 became 100.
100 became 30 again. Back 30 My God. So, 10 becomes 30, so this is our perspective now. Will we look at 10 for 30 or 10 for 1? That is important. But the journey is bound to happen to this country. If you [sound of clearing throat] travel long distances, you're bound to encounter potholes. No matter how good your highway is.
Tell me one thing. Sir, there must be some stocks which you have kept for 10 years, 15 years, 20 years. I still have a couple of stocks. I am 20-22 years old. Is equal. Yes, I am still trying to buy it. Tell me if you have kept any stock for 20-22 years. Yes. So, in the last 20-22 years, there must have been such frustration in many stocks that the price has halved, decreased by 70% or is not doing well for two-three years.
So in such a situation, how can one sit peacefully? Look at the company, Company C, I don't care about the price of the bus. The company is not doing well. Is the company running or not? Now our business is equal, so our tension is equal and it is going on, growth is happening and right now the price is very cheap, our turn will come, our turn will also come, sometimes what happens is that we meet many people, sir, we want to buy it for the long term, tell us sir, which one should we buy, 5 years, 10 years, we buy it with the same intention, sir said we will buy it for 5 years, now what happened, it is fine for five weeks, then from the fifth week to the sixth week, if it starts falling, then suddenly they feel that they have not done any mistake, they forget the long term story, the 5 year story.
So in good times everyone can see the long term. In bad times, in bad times, that feeling is visible only that my feelings have not improved. The one next to you sold and mine remained, yes you know you bought it and I remained, so you have gone far ahead, so what do you do, they will sell theirs and then they will go after you, then we will go one after the other like this, there is no money to be made in that, that is not the way to make money only we, you will also pay tax in that, first of all you will pay tax, every time you sell, 10 taka goes away, so you sold it for 100, you came to 90, then start again from 90, so first of all you left yourself behind by 10 taka, right, now start from here, so generally I have seen that brother, very serious money is made, you sit for 10, 15, 20 years, I mean, you should have that type of stock, yes brother, so many banks have come, see, is there any such example which you felt that you kept the shares for 202 years and there were a lot of ups and downs, this happened in Hero Infosys Hero Hero, I bought it in 96, I bought it for ₹30, so the price is ₹30 All this is done exactly, what is that, after splitting, dividend used to come to the bank, in that, ₹50, ₹60, ₹70 dividend used to come, then I never felt any pain.
He had distributed it so differently. We had a good multiple, it was not very high. The multiple of 15 17 18 never became a multiple of 50 60. But the growth was sustained. There was a very smooth growth of 30 taka to 25 taka. So the one which was priced at ₹30 became priced at ₹5,600. We went back to 2003 [sound of clearing throat] 4 5, that's when Honda and Hero broke up.
Both got split. There was a breakup. Now at that time I felt like running away too. But I was feeling fine. The demand for our motorcycles was also like this. The management is very good. There is transparent management and it is distributing different things in abundance. I am sitting and doing it.
So, the price which was around Rs. 1200-1500, I think, increased by only 50-60% in 10 years from 2005 to 2015 or till 2014, so if seen like this, it was a painful period. That money did not become money. But we made a lot of money between 96 and 2005, so if you do this from 96 to 2015, you earned a lot of money, you earned around 22-25 lakh rupees, but if you look back and do something about it, then in 1415 I sold it completely, then I moved ahead from there in other opportunities, so that [sound of clearing throat] also happens like this, for example, if you invested in Infosys and if the old Infosys team, Narayan Murthy Sahab's accounts etc.
are all coming out. Yes. Then how will you have faith in the company? You think you have to take it for 10, 15, 20 years. But trust is not found at such times. Hey brother, but he made the biggest money in Infosys and made it the fastest. Now we bought Infosys for around ₹6700, its price will be ₹1,000 and that too within 2 years.
Now brother, we never thought that it would grow so much. Well, I understood that this was not going to last. Because what was happening in Nashik was a white boom at that time. At that time we started going there. So this became clear after the collapse. So we actually started selling from 11,000 but everyone sold.
Well, while selling it, on the day of 91, we sold it for the last time for ₹200. Yes, yes, we sold from 11,000 to 2200 to 2200 and we sold the last one that day. I said now globalization itself is coming to an end. Well, sir, now there is an advantage in your case. You were born very early. Yes, in those days, I mean, in those days, shares were available at very cheap rates.
Someone was available in HDFC Bank. It was available for ₹35. Now we are late. There are no such cheap shares in our times. So how do we know now which stock will become a hero 25, 20, 25, 30 years from now ? Someone will become Infosys, someone will become Indian. No, the market has become a bit expensive.
It has definitely become expensive. Your P Multimedium Index score of 1215 is now around 202. So 25 30% 35% the broad market has become much more expensive than before because participation has increased. FI has arrived. Such a huge army is coming. Two to three million demat accounts are being opened every month.
So clearly there is a competition. But it is not that the opportunities are over. C But you see what is the ground reality? When we started, Indian GDP was $100 billion. It was a basket case. Meaning, if two Mercedes came to Raipur, did you know who owned the two Mercedes? Did you know what they were?
Yes. Right now, what he means is that there are probably two agencies. Yes, that's right. So you know opportunity size in India has changed completely. So right now we are at 4 trillion and in the next 15-17 years, we will become 15 and what we talk about India will become an economy of 20-22 trillion dollars, so this is a different game, our opportunities are very different, our confidence is different, you have 7800 billion dollars, that means you opened the gate a little and you found out that 100-150 billion dollars came to you, in 92 it was becoming difficult to get 2 billion dollars, for that you had to send gold, here you got 136 billion unsecured, so due to this change the opportunities have also changed a lot.
It has become very globalized. Opportunity is different. Yes, the market is a little expensive clearly compared to what it was when we started but the growth opportunities are also huge. So we will make money if you buy it at a higher price and sell it at an even higher price. I am telling you this.
We are right. So there is a difference between then and now. We used to make a lot of money in terms of percentage. We, that is, if you started in that era, will now become bigger in size because earlier if one trillion was increasing to two trillion, then only one trillion was your add. Now four to eight trillion is being added, so extra wealth of four trillion will be created.
So will it be of much benefit? The advantage is that many new companies will come. And the small companies can grow much faster. If you understand, you can start a small business in Nepal. How much will we become in 10 years? It will be very difficult to make it worth Rs 100 crore. Here a successful company is worth Rs 100 crore, but if it is successful for 10 years, it will become a company worth Rs 10,000 crore.
So now the field where you are sowing seeds has become very fertile and there is a huge opportunity. Understand this, you are sowing seeds worth Rs 4 trillion and you will exit with Rs 16 trillion. For us, this meaning of opportunity is completely different. It is global, it is digital. Meaning Sir, you have a lot of money and with that money you can buy new and good companies.
Our new viewers, the 20-year-olds, the 30-year-olds who are just starting their career, they do not have money. We [sound of clearing throat] will just take a share or two like you. No, how will that work? I do n't want to learn, right? Right now, all the experiments have to be done. Like we used to do.
The type of buying and selling every day. Good. Yes. Yes, but you have to keep working, yes, I mean you have to do all this in small cap. In this small cap, it is as exciting a world as it was in 87. If we look, it is still the same today. Yes, because all the institutions are involved in 350-400 companies.
The companies below them don't even get a meeting. Correct, that is your world, right? Yes, you go to Bhubaneswar, go to Rajkot, go to Jaipur, companies are coming from anywhere. You know, all that is still available in the company, right? Similarly, 40 gross. Can we do this that we trade some small cap type shares or some options etc., build some capital, get some initial money, then I invest it.
No, no, no, brother, I did not do that from the beginning. I don't advise anyone to do that. I mean, we started with no money, for that we started broking to earn money because we need capital to invest. So, we started with broking, so we earned lakhs. It started coming to ₹2 lakh to ₹4 lakh per year and gradually increased to crores of rupees.
So where did I start getting investment surplus from? From business. Well, what's the fun in the business of capital markets ? It does not require money. You earn money without money. Isn't it ? Like you are doing brokerage. If we assume that this is worth crores of rupees then your expenditure is not even Rs 10 lakh.
Yes. I mean, it happened once in the office etc. After that it's a it's a 100% free cash flow business. Is scalable. Is scalable. So, if we had earned Rs 2 crore, then I would have invested the entire Rs 2 crore. That is why we became a double engine. Do broking as well as investing. That is what is Moti House Wall.
You are getting both types of benefits that you have a complete double engine. Yes. So similarly, if young investors have a salary or business, they will definitely have a salary. Somewhere you earn a salary there will be another one. Spend 25, 250 lakhs, 50 lakhs also. Start your investing journey with Rs 50 lakh.
Either invest in mutual funds or use your stock picking abilities. And if someone really wants to make huge wealth then what should he say that means do not buy too many shares, buy only a few, buy in large quantity, buy for a long time, buy for a long time, buy for a long time, a small man needs big money for a long time, either start with a big amount, you will become a little bigger, then you will become bigger and bigger, if you start with 1000 crores then in 5-7 years you will become 2000 crores, but if I start with 1 crore, if I have to make it 100 crores then it will take me 20 years, there is one more thing which people generally think that let's buy shares for 5 years.
Bought for ₹100, it became ₹175 to ₹200. Ok? Then you will not have to keep it for 5 years. It could also be 500. It could also be 1000. In 10 years, 15 years, when it comes back down to 100, then there is a lot of regret. Hey, I wanted to sell it but I made a mistake. How to change this mindset? No, look carefully, this is not just about buying shares.
It is very important for you to understand the value of that share. Everyone knows the price but what is the value and how is the company running? How is business? How is the management? How is the growth? And what is the sentiment according to that? If any news is coming to us right now, whatever news keeps coming up and down.
The news is on one side. But what is happening in the actual business? It is important to see that. If the business is running well then yes let them shout, what is the problem for the media people, if the business company is doing as well as you then we have no intention. My 99%, 1%, I also look at the price but 99% focuses in the business, we have three things - business management, business management and growth, so I know its price, it will come sooner or later.
Well, one more thing, many times it seems that the environment is good, the economy is doing well, there is growth , everything is there. But, if the market does not move then one starts doubting oneself. One starts having doubts about the company. It happens in the sector, in the market, it happens in the country also.
All this means that everything is not going well friend. If that price increases then everything is fine. Ok. If that price does not increase then everything is bad. Yes. How did this mindset change? No. That bitter jaggery has to be consumed. There is a patience. One has to drink bitter jaggery. We want it to remain completely green every day.
Who wants to see red? Yes it is equal. So, who will look at the rates? Hmm. Brother, if half a taka or one taka remains green every day, then it will become 365 taka. I just have to earn 15 rupees for myself. So, 15 taka, go five steps forward and come back four steps. Then after that go three steps forward and then come two steps back.
We then go through 10 steps and what happens next? He goes 50 steps ahead immediately. Sometimes 50 steps less. So when the one with 50 goes forward, he falls 25 steps. There are 30 steps. The opportunity is coming, sir. 50 steps forward. I feel that if you accept it, yes, right now these two years of peace are very good.
So what has happened this time is that this correction has happened time wise. Now the earnings which have also picked up, our earnings have fallen by only 15% from 15-17%, that is round understanding. Hum [sound of clearing throat] [sound of coughing] So in 27-28 I think it could be ₹1500 a piece. We are seeing a 25 point upside and downside of Nifty around ₹1500.
I feel that in 2 years, the index of Rs 3035000 will become Rs 35,000. We have 2 years time so Nifi yes we and what is the down side? Hey brother, when the earnings are that much, then how much will you drop the multiple on the earnings, that is, what is 12 10, I mean, historically it is only 20, it is 1820, and that is where we are standing, standing on average.
Right now I think the downside is limited. Our upside is quite good, I mean there is a rise of 8000 points, so there is an asymmetric payoff. Whenever you see the payoff, that the downside is 23000 points. The upside is a 6 7 8 10. It depends on how long it lasts. So I think 3:1 5 1. When will you get this type of payoff?
I don't know when it will happen. It will cause trouble for six months more. All these IPO guys will harass you so much that every day [laughs]. Dama dum 10, 20000, 300 crore. You can also take it, what's the problem in that? You will regret it later. [laughs]. So what I want to say is that this is the way of the market.
The market is made for everyone, the market is not just for us, the company owners. It is for FI as well, for DI as well, for retail and the special thing right now the biggest players are the promoters, we who are getting listed from unlisted and from listed, Amin are doing QIP, selling blocks, so they too are having a lot of Diwali, let it go for now, right now I mean this is a good time for them, absolutely this is such a market in which every person can create wealth, you just need to know your role and your responsibility completely, how to create it and in what manner.
Patience, which Ramdev Sir said is the most important thing, one should make long term and big money in this market. Second control on greed, from where we have become greedy, what is the rule of the market that we have earned 12% 13% and given it to you, your greed should go only up to 15, if you think of index plus two and 3% 121 then it is possible that you will earn more, you will earn more, if you think of more then you will earn less, you will earn less, keep your expectations low, you will outperform and if you expect too much that I have to double it in a year then that is not going to happen, this is what Ram Sir says, Sir, thank you very much to your market mentors, in this series you have shared your experience of so many years and given all those guru mantras, how you can create big and long term wealth by investing for a big and long time.
This is some special mantra for you today. Thank you very much sir. That's all for today in this special show. Please allow me. Hello.
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