저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 아그라왈은 인도 금융·내수 중심 장기 낙관론을 펴며, 단기적으로는 유가 변수에 따른 마진 압박을 경계한다. 은행주: ICICI 등 대형은행은 FII 매도와 HDFC 여파로 한때 디레이팅됐으나, 분기 실적상 신용성장 17%, 여신 성장률 14~15%로 회복 국면이라고 봄. 지배구조 이슈도 해소됐다고 언급하며 12~13배 PE 수준 매수 기회 시사. 기업 실적: 2027년 실적 서프라이즈 가능성 언급, 신용성장 15~17%가 유지되면 27~28년 이익이 예상보다 좋을 수 있다고 봄. 거시·유가: 유가가 60~70달러대에서 급등했으나 급락 가능성도 있다고 하며, 1분기 마진 압박 가능성 언급. 올해 경제는 양호할 것으로 전망. 지수 목표: 니프티 500은 5~6년 내 두 배 이상 상승 전망. 구체적 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음. AI: 명확한 투자 수익 구조 설명 없이 이해하기 어렵다는 입장으로, 특정 AI 종목 추천은 없음. 리스크: 시장 리스크 고지, 유가 변동성과 마진 압박 언급.
다듬은 글
Okay Ram Sir, two questions, is there a sector where you feel that the consensus is very bullish but you are a little negative about it, is there such a sector, is there such a theme, is AI, okay, because I do not understand it, so the thing is that I do not understand anything, I stay away from things which I do not understand, so now what is this AI, such technology is very exciting, I use it a lot, but how will the money be made and who will make the money, it is very difficult to understand.
Okay, and any theme that no one is paying attention to right now but you feel like it's time to accumulate. Is there any such theme selective, that is what I am telling you, search for any company from these, be it insurance or banking, there are many interesting stocks in banking. Very interesting stocks.
I do n't want to say the name but what happened in ICICI Banking? Because of sustained FI selling and slow down in the HDFC C, whenever the category leader 's valuation gets crunched, the entire sector gets crunched. If you assume that the real estate prices in South Bombay also fall, the real estate prices of the entire country will fall.
The entire country will collapse. So that's it. So what is this? This was our South Bombay. Yes. Malabar Hill was right on the nose. Now you will take its premium, friend, you are right, so from the numbers that have come for this quarter, it is clearly understood that their days of sorrow are over, now they are growing at 14-15% because credit is growing at 17%, yes and those issues of corporate governance etc.
have also ended, they have all gone behind, so now what is the matter, now their transactions, I think, have ended by almost 80-90% and now they are growing at at least the industry growth rate, so what will happen from that, if you see, your FI holding was 54% at the peak. Yes. They sold 12% 12% off 12 le means one each.
Lakh crores but empty banks. Now I don't know what he will do from here. I don't think they will sell it at this price. But it's still on 42 43%. Let go. So what happened because of this type of thing ? Poora industry ka matlab but 17 lakh ka credit go you are able to get the stocks at 12 13 PE. I don't understand it.
Okay, one last question for you, normally whenever I talk to you, you say that we just have to see how much the downside is because as you said, the upside can also go up to 35000 or 36000. Now, you feel that the war momentum that was created should not be broken, now you know that some new program will have to be done for that because see, I am more confident about the earnings.
Yes and I think analysts understand that we could be closer to 1500 in 28. If there is 15-17% credit growth, then I say 27-28 will surprise you. Yes, because look at it now, in 27-26-27, I mean, the first quarter is in $ oil, so the first quarter will be a little if, in terms of margin, the top line will be tremendous, but there will be a little squeeze on the margin, but this oil which is 60-70 has just reached 70, it has not stopped like this, it can fall very sharply from here, so how does it develop, I mean, how does the entire economy move from here, I am quite optimistic that this year will be very good, then see how inflation moves, okay, Ridham Desai's bole case target is 1 lakh for Sussex, then what will be Ramdev Agarwal's bole case target, I have a target of five to six years, it keeps doubling every time, like I told you, your Nifty 500 will definitely be in 5 to 6 years And you will double this also. Investment and securities markets are subject to market risk.
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