TOM LEE: Despite the 'fog of war' GRNY outperforms broader market YTD

요약 보기

미국-이란 전쟁으로 인한 'fog of war' 시장 불확실성 속에서도 GRNY는 2025년 S&P500 대비 약 600bp 초과수익, 올해도 소폭 상회. 4월 말 휴전 확률이 50%대로 상승하고 유가 100달러 돌파 확률이 70%로 하락 추세라 단기 바닥(tradeable bottom) 근접 신호로 봄. 공매도 포지션이 많고 개인 단일종목 거래가 2024년 가을 이후 최저라 반등 여건이 갖춰졌다고 주장. 기술주는 10년 전 수준으로 PER이 낮아졌고, 전쟁 기간 중 암호화폐가 금보다 강세라고 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. chief 23rd. First, let me give you some particulars. As of March 20th, total assets for Granny were 3.9 billion. For Granny J, which is the small mid-cap ETF, 360 million. And for Granny Income, 57 million. Over the past week, Granny, GRNY, gained, or sorry, lost 1.53% versus a 2% decline for the S&P 500 for 31 basis points of relative return.

02. For Granny J, uh over the past week, Granny J fell 1.23% compared to a 1.26% decline for the S&P, uh which is 2, Granny Income fell 1% compared to 1.87% for the S&P 500 or roughly 71 basis points of outperformance. Now, I want to talk about uh the fog of war in this macro section. And what [clears throat] I mean by that is US is at a is at war with Iran.

03. And there's misinformation. Investors are risk-averse. They want to sit on the sidelines. And of course, it's very difficult then to navigate markets like this. But I want to highlight how Granny has performed. In 2025, Granny gained 24% compared to an 18% rise for the S&P 500 or outperformance of roughly 600 basis points.

04. But now we're in the fog of war and wartime. A lot of uncertainty. A defensive market. A completely different market. And as you can see, Granny uh is down 2% compared to a 4% decline for the S&P 500 or 200 basis points of outperformance. So, Granny is adapting to wartime conditions um and navigating okay through what we think is a very difficult period.

05. And we still really don't know when the war is going to end, but it does look like markets are betting on at least a 50% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April. And actually, if we look at this over time, uh those odds have been rising. And actually, 53% is probably the highest odds since early March.

06. So, it is a good development. And in terms of oil, cuz a lot of this is going to depend on on oil prices, um according to prediction markets, the probability of oil being over $100 by June stands at 70%. While that might seem high to you, that's actually been declining. And it's been over 90% for much of March.

07. Now, nobody's going to ring the bell at the bottom, but if oil these probabilities of oil being over $100 continue to drop and the odds of a ceasefire rise, I think that this gives us some clues that we're going to be near a tradeable bottom. And the conditions [snorts] are there because um as Citadel's Scott Rubner points out, the conditions are high for a rally because there's just a lot of people short stocks right now.

08. And we know retail investors, if you look at single stock activity, are at the lowest level since the fall of 2024. And falling oil uh means you want to look for things that have a negative correlation. And that's going to be the S&P, Ethereum, and crypto, as well as the Mag 7. And I just want to highlight that technology has gotten so cheap because of this rolling bear market that their relative PE multiple is back to where it was 10 years ago.

09. So, you've now wiped out an entire decade of gains associated with AI and consistent growth. And as far as crypto goes, crypto has been outperforming since the war started while gold has actually underperformed. So, as a wartime store value, crypto looks a lot stronger. So, let's now look at Granny's uh for Granny and Granny Income, they have the same holdings, were GE Vernova, KL TenCorp, Monok AMD, and Goldman Sachs.

10. And the bottom five are PPG, Amgen, Packaging Corp of America, Tesla, and Vistra. Now, with regard to the small mid-cap Granny's, top five performers are Lumentum Holdings, HF Sinclair, Ally Financial, Reddit, and Carrier Global. Okay, the bottom five are Galaxy Digital, Installed Building Products, Energy Fuels, MP Materials, and Royal Gold.

11. And as far as themes go, as you can see here, the top performing theme this week was Millennials followed by energy and cybersecurity and PMI recover.