저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 2024년 포트폴리오의 약 40%를 매도했다는 점을 소개하며, 과거 2008년 서브프라임 붕괴 적중 이력을 근거로 시장 위기 신호일 수 있다고 주장한다. 알리바바(25%), 징동(40%), 몰리나헬스케어(16.67%) 매도를 중국 기술주 규제 리스크, 과대평가, 헬스케어 정책 불확실성으로 설명한다. 연준의 정책과 피아트 통화 구조가 자산 거품을 키울 수 있다고 보며, 버리의 포지션 조정이 시장 조정 대비 신호일 수 있다고 진행한다. 다만 영상은 구체적 가격 목표 없이 경계 메시지 중심이다.
다듬은 글
Michael bur is famous for being right when it comes to the markets he called the 2008 financial crisis before anyone else but now in 2024 he has sold 40% of his portfolio and I don't mean just a couple of stocks almost half of his entire portfolio that's a pretty big deal so the real question is why would he do this now what's going on behind the scenes could this be a signal that a crisis is brewing is he expecting a market crash or is he just positioning for something big that we all might be missing for someone with a track record of being ahead of the curve pulling the trigger on something this big you've got to wonder what's coming next here's what I'm going to do break it all down what exactly did bur sell and more importantly why what does this mean for the rest of us could this be a huge warning or maybe a chance to get ahead of the curve stick around Michael bur's journey in the financial world is one of the most fascinating ones from his Beginnings as a physician to become one of the most well-known hedge fund managers in the world claiming what at the time even the government Finance advisory could not understand credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset itself is worth because all all asset back Securities all asset back derivative Securities settled in cash pay as you go that was the secret sauce of the Doomsday Machine and so the crisis unfolded with the market providing a signal far too late even so fed chairman Ben Bernan treasury secretary Hank Paulson continued to underestimate the situation I was AP I was just like that apoplectic secretary secretary Paulson now claims that even if he knew what was going to happen he couldn't have done anything about it despite having no formal Finance background bur's Keen ability to spot mispriced assets led him to achieve incredible success his most famous bet was against the subprime mortgage Market before the 2008 financial crisis a move that ultimately earned him Millions as well as Fame in the financial World bur's investment style is highly unconventional he tends to make contrarian bets that go against the consensus driven by Deep research and an ability to see risks others might ignore he was able to see beyond the noise of the market and understand the technical flaws in mortgage Securities which was a key factor in his success he knew about the growing risk in subprime mortgages and bet against them bur positioned himself ahead of the disaster that would unfold in the years to come this was just one example of how bur's approach to investing rooted in deep analysis and skepticism made him a standout figure in the financial world and with his recent stock sell-offs many are now wondering what is driving his decision has bur's strategy evolved or is he once again seeing something others are missing when it comes to why Michael bur sells stocks his reasons are grounded in a clear disciplined approach to investing one of the primary reasons he may decide to sell is when he believes the stock has become overpriced bur has always been willing to bet against the prevailing Market sentiment especially when it comes to overinflated assets just as he did with the housing market before the 2008 crash bur is quick to act when he spot a bubble this is a Hallmark of his investment style a Relentless pursuit of value and a willingness to take contrarian positions when the market is overly optimistic soon I would see Financial Armageddon with housing as its trigger point now in predicting when and how the collapse would occur my focus was again on the actions of our government and the response of the private sector in this clip bur reflects on his past specifically how he saw the risks within the housing Market before it was widely acknowledged his ability to spot overvalued assets like subprime mortgages and the government and private sector's response to it allowed him to make massive returns when others were blind to the risks his focus on weak fundamentals and unsustainable growth was at the heart of his strategy when he decided to short the market this strategic Insight is not only key to understanding his past successes but is also crucial when considering his recent sell-offs another major reason bur sells stocks is when he feels the future prospects of the business or sector no longer align with his investment thesis this was evident in his decision-making process when he adjusted his positions or completely pulled out of Investments especially when he perceived significant changes in the economic environment when the growth potential of a stock begins to look Bleak or the fundamental factors that once Justified his investment no longer hold up B instinct is to divest both of these reasons overpricing and weak future prospects have guided bur's decision-making process in the past and they are likely influencing his recent stock sales as well whether it's due to a market that has become overvalued or companies with weakening growth potential bur's sell-offs are a direct reflection of his analytical approach to investing which often involves stepping away from positions when the fundamentals no longer make sense looking at bur's recent stock sales we can start to notice patterns that align closely with his long-established investment philosophy over the last few quarters bur has sold or reduced positions in several high-profile companies including Alibaba jd.com and Molina Healthcare let's break these down and see how they fit into his broader strategy first bur made the decision to sell Alibaba one of his largest Holdings he reduced his position by 25% this is significant especially considering the Stock's past performance and bur's history of holding on to positions for the long term so what drove this move it seems that the combination of overpricing and a weakened outlook for alibaba's growth prospects led to his decision to sell at the time of bur sale Alibaba had experienced a major surge in price Rising significantly in a short period just a quarter earlier the stock had been extremely undervalued presenting a buying opportunity however in the span of just one quarter the price had risen so high that bur likely felt it was the right time to lock in his profits his decision fits perfectly into his strategy of recognizing when a stock is overpriced even if that's after it has already experienced a significant runup additionally Chinese tech stocks including Alibaba have faced mounting regulatory pressures from the Chinese government these regulatory crackdowns have created uncertainty about the future of these companies and have put a damper on their long-term growth bur known for being cautious when a company's future prospects become un certain likely saw this as a signal to step back the volatile environment surrounding Chinese tech companies may have raised concerns about alibaba's ability to sustain its growth leading to bur's decision to sell we never quite achieved the catharsis necessary to stoke a deep re-evaluation of our wants needs and fears importantly the toxic twins fiat currency and an activist fed remain firmly entrenched even more so with the financial reforms last year in fact the Federal Reserve having acquired new powers of Regulation has insisted specifically that nothing in the field of Economics or Finance was of any help in predicting the crisis period no more comment this clip although focused on broader economic concerns closely aligns with bur's approach to evaluating individual companies over the years bu has consistently sold stocks when he believes that the broader Market or economic environment presents too many challenges for a company's growth for Alibaba the mounting pressures from both domestic and international forces could have been the Catalyst for bu to reduce his exposure the combination of regulatory crackdowns in China and Rising concerns about its future growth prospects likely made him hesitant to hold on to the stock any longer similarly bur sold jd.com reducing his position by a significant 40% like Alibaba jd.com another major Chinese e-commerce giant is dealing with similar challenges the company is facing regulatory headwinds along with growing competition from other players in the market on top of that China's slowing economic growth presents an additional layer of concern for the future of jd.com business another significant sale in his portfolio was Molina Healthcare a company bur reduced by 16.67 % Healthcare is a sector that burri has been watching closely especially with all the ongoing changes to the US Health Care system and the uncertainty surrounding potential regulatory shifts that could have serious implications for companies in this space let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture what do these actions mean for the market at large and how should investors interpret bur's moves bur's sell-offs could be more than just a series of individual decisions they could be indicative of broader economic signals given his reputation for predicting major Financial events including the housing market collapse in 2008 it's natural to wonder if he is seeing something others are missing for example by cutting his positions in stocks like Alibaba and jd.com bur could be signaling that he expects a Slowdown in Chinese markets Chinese tech companies like these to have been rising quickly but they're now facing increasing regulatory pressures from the Chinese govern government this could suggest that bur is warning investors to be cautious about overexposing themselves to these highflying Chinese stocks which are no longer the safe bets they once were the writing may be on the wall the regulatory environment is tightening and that could make the future for these companies much less certain bur's actions could also be interpreted as a cautionary signal for Global markets as he has stated in the past he closely monitors the interplay between government actions and private Market responses in a broader sense this is about understanding systemic risks the fiat currency an activist Federal Reserve and ongoing easy monetary policies are factors that could exacerbate market bubbles or create distortions in asset pricing bur's reduction in Holdings could be a way of positioning his portfolio against potential systemic shocks now let's zoom out even further bur's actions also seem to suggest that he's anticipating a shift in global econ iic sentiment over the last decade easy monetary policies and low interest rates have fueled a stock market rally making it seem like the economy was always on the rise but now with inflation creeping up and central banks starting to pull back on their stimulus measures the economic environment is changing bur's moves suggest that he might be positioning himself for a potential Market correction a time when overvalued stocks and certain sectors could experience a significant pullback this wouldn't be the first time bur has acted based on a big picture concern his 2008 prediction was driven by a similar read of the economy where he saw a bubble forming and knew it was about to burst in many ways this signals the caution he exercised leading up to the 2008 financial crisis bur is clearly trying to mitigate risk in his portfolio he's been adjusting his Holdings perhaps preparing for a time when certain Investments won't hold up if the the economic environment changes he wants to be in a position where he's not heavily invested in areas that could struggle whether or not his predictions will come true his history of accurately predicting crises makes his moves worth paying attention to even Warren Buffett who has always recommended everyday investors to buy the SNP 500 has himself sold off his stake in the SNP 500 click the video on screen to find out why
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