저자: Logan · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 버리의 2020년 2분기 13F 공시는 단기 낙관(콜옵션 매수 확대)과 장기 신중을 보여주며, 레스토랑 업종은 회복이 더딜 것으로 본다. [13F 공시 개요] 버리(Scion Asset Management)의 2020년 2분기 13F를 분석. 6월 말 기준 스냅샷이라 현재 시점과 다를 수 있음. [콜옵션 중심 매수] 분기 중 콜옵션을 대거 매수. 경기 부양책 발표와 하반기 실적 개선 기대를 반영한 단기 베팅으로 해석. [주식 대신 옵션 선택] 옵션 선택은 기초자산이 단기적으로 잘 갈 것이라는 확신을 뜻하지만 장기 전망에는 의문. [숏 포지션] 구글, 페이스북, 골드만삭스, 웨스턴디지털, BofA, JP모건, 라스베이거스 샌즈 등에서 하방 리스크를 보고 주식 매수를 피함. 단기 숏을 간헐적으로 운용하며 포지션을 빠르게 회전. [보유 유지·신규 매수] 게임스탑 유지, 배드배스앤비욘드 신규 매수, 디스커버리는 장기 보유 후보로 언급. [2020년 1분기 대비 변화] 잭인더박스, 페이스북, MAXR 테크놀로지, 보잉, 테일러드브랜즈 등 보유 주식을 다수 정리. 테일러드브랜즈는 파산 선언. 1분기에 보유하던 샌즈, 풋락커, 크라케배럴 콜옵션은 추가 매수. [레스토랑 업종 전망] 버리는 외식 업종 회복에 부정적. 발표자도 동의하며 락다운과 바이러스 공포로 외식 소비가 위축될 것으로 봄. 리테일은 하반기 나아질 수 있으나 레스토랑은 타격 지속 가능성. [출연자 견해] 13F는 의미가 크지만 공시 시차를 감안해야 하며, 투자 조언이 아니라는 면책 고지.
다듬은 글
michael bury from the big short just released the 13f sec filing for scion asset management for q2 of 2020. they reveal he did a lot of action since his last filing so let's get into it and see what it shows about how he sees the economy playing out so stay tuned hi everybody welcome back to the contrarian my name is logan i really like to talk about overall success investing as one as well as going against crowd thinking and just the insanity that crowds get into around certain things and how they almost always get issues wrong um so if you like these topics uh just consider subscribing i'll also make a disclaimer here that none of this is to be taken as investment advice and i'm not an advisor and you need to understand all the things you're doing with your money first of all michael bury is one of the investors who i like to take into account he always has unique and detailed and very data-driven ways of looking at things which i like to take into account as well that being said let's go right into his recent filing so we can see from this um he's added a lot of calls he did a lot of buying in the last quarter we know now this is just updated you know at the end of q2 so this could be potentially outdated but this is just looking back at what he did in the second quarter so um you know ending in june he did a lot of call buying and this really says a lot about what he sees the economy doing in the near term um this reveals that burry is betting heavily on the recent stimulus announcement and the potential for the last two quarters of the year to be much better than expected however it also reveals that he is willing to take the risk of purchasing options instead of shares so he must think that in the short term these assets will do quite well but it is also questionable in the long term as to what he sees these these companies stocks doing this is what many other investors are currently thinking such as ray dalio warren buffett and other notable investors that i like to keep in mind um bury on the other hand is willing to take short positions here and there you know very short term he's also traded in and out of positions uh fairly quickly so obviously he's very short-term optimistic about this economy however he is obviously more hesitant about long-term outlook can see this just because he did not purchase shares in these companies he purchased options so he obviously thinks that these underlying assets will do quite well in the near term future but because he's not purchasing shares in these cases such as google facebook um goldman sachs western digital corporation bank of america jpmorgan you know las vegas sans he's he's seeing a lot of potential downside in these companies as well so that's in my mind why he's not purchasing shares in these companies um he kept gamestop pretty much as it was he did add bed bath and beyond he did buy shares in that so gamestop bed bath and beyond discovery these could potentially be long-term longer-term positions he's thinking of holding but in my mind these option plays are much shorter term for him and for comparison here's the second or the first quarter 2020 that he filed he back then had a lot of shares in jack in the box facebook maxr technologies boeing tailored brands he had some calls in las vegas sands foot locker corvo cracker barrel he has since then added a lot to these calls that he previously had but another another notable thing uh is that he's sold out all of his jack-in-the-box shares he's obviously sold out um tailored they declared bankruptcy he's sold out most of maxr technologies um he still has gamestop as his largest share held position um but yeah he sold his shares in jack in the box facebook michaels so i think it's important to take this into account he obviously doesn't see the restaurant industry recovering um at least in the near future and i definitely do agree with this i think that you know even though retail might do well in the last two quarters of this year restaurants are probably you know for the most part going to be very hard hit just by the lockdowns that we had and the fear that people have of this virus you know they're going to be much more hesitant about going to eat out so these are just my thoughts but let me know what you think about this you know 13f filing it does mean a lot in my opinion he did do a lot of buying action in the last quarter but let me know what you think about it and i hope to see you again
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