저자: TheContrarian · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2023년 4분기 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석. 3분기 반도체 대규모 풋옵션 숏이 손실로 청산됨. 중국주(JD, BABA) 비중 확대, 구글·아마존 보유, 씨티그룹·블록·토스 추가. 버리가 약세에서 강세로 전환한 것으로 해석하며, 기관투자자들의 지속적 비관론이 시장 바닥이 아닌 상단 전 현금 보유 신호일 수 있다고 주장. 투자 조언 아님을 명시.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the contrarian everybody I hope you are all doing well I'm recording outside again today I hope the sound is decent although it is a bit windy out here but I hope you can also enjoy some of the backdrop I'm just up against some Cliffs here around where I'm hiking but I really wanted to make a follow-up video today regarding Michael bur's portfolio I really didn't do an in-depth review of the changes he made um that was updated about a week and a half ago in his most recent 13f filing about a week and a half ago the fourth quarter of 20123 came out it basically came out what positions michaelb added which ones he sold out of completely and overall his you know Outlook going into 2024 and you know we're through two months in 2024 so far so it's a bit outdated but I still really like to take into account what my Michael bur is thinking what you know decisions he decided to make in the fourth quarter of 2023 and you know maybe he's changed it a little bit so far in the first two months but it is really interesting to look at some major shifts that really took place in his portfolio um Michael bur's a really well-known investor featured in The Big Short he's been on board with a lot of the more recent developments in the stock market he's very well known a lot of people reference him what he does and things like that I myself like to pay attention to Major developments that he makes and opinions of his as well he's on Twitter um very followed on Twitter as well out there but you know featured in The Big Short he was very correct when it came to GameStop and the um you know short squeeze gamma squeeze everything that happened there with GameStop he was very early on that as well um and right now you know the last several years he's been fairly bearish he's put out some kind of cryptic but very bearish Tweets in the last um couple of years he basically put out a tweet a one word tweet about a year ago just saying sell and a lot of people took that as a very bearish sign that they needed to you know sell their positions or that Michael bur was at least you know very bearish on his overall outlook for the economy and for the stock market and it's it's really interesting looking at the one uh previous 13f filing in the third quarter of 2023 michaelb had a very large short position using put options on semiconductors and semiconductors are definitely the High Flyers of the last year it's kind of like what Apple used to be the stock Apple or Tesla for that matter both of those stocks used to kind of be the indication of where the rest of the market was heading they definitely led the stock market for example back in 2021 I mean Tesla ripped higher and higher um the market followed that and you know since then Tesla's kind of fallen out of favor when it comes to Leading the market it seems to have kind of rotated into semiconductors now with a stock like Nvidia uh really being the stock to watch if you're you know looking at overall flows and overall sentiment as well where that is NVIDIA and semiconductors broadly speaking have really been the place to be in the last year or so and Michael Brey had a very large short position on semiconductors in the third quarter and that obviously didn't play out as he thought um semiconductors continued to go higher in the third and fourth quarter and definitely in the first two months of this year they're substantially higher so you know he exited that short position probably good decision on his part he may have lost some you know in that position I don't know exactly his cost basis or other um you know exact price targets like that but you know it's important to keep in mind that michaelb was incorrect in that assessment of his a bearish assessment on semiconductors and overall I think bearish on the stock market as well but it's interesting to see his portfolio now and recent changes he made um he very much so added to his two largest positions in jd.com and Alibaba uh to Chinese stocks so he appears to be very bullish on Chinese stocks which broadly speaking have been very beaten down in the last couple of years they really have not seen the substantial rally that us-based equities have experienced and if anything Chinese stocks are really perhaps the most undervalued they've been for for several decades um you know a lot of this has to do with the real estate uh issues China's facing the deceleration of their economic growth some investors are very worried on that thinking that'll continue um bur on the other hand appears to think that you know relative to everything else Chinese stocks could perform pretty well at least that's what his portfolio reflected a couple of months ago um also really interesting to point out is he overall added a lot of positions he only sold out of a few trimmed a few positions but he really added a lot in the fourth quarter and that would have played out well generally speaking most of his positions were up pretty substantially in the final few months of last year and they look like they're up um in the first two months of this year as well so you know overall he did add again to his big Tech positions with Google and Amazon being kind of the two of The Magnificent Seven stocks that he's holding right now um he added City group as well the you know the City Bank um that did surprise me a little bit too apparently he is bullish on Finance stocks or you know at least City Bank maybe that's undervalued one in that space um but he also added to block and toast which are two uh Finance related stocks but more in the payment processing so kind of a Visa Mastercard type of stock right there kind of similar company perhaps but more focused on small business transactions and payment processing for small businesses so it's interesting to see that bur added there perhaps he sees a uptick in overall economic activity when it comes to perhaps the more small cap small business related area so I don't know that he would technically speaking be in the bearish Camp anymore um it'd be really interesting to see some of his tweets he has not been very active on Twitter recently but if he were I'd be curious to hear what his you know overall assessment of the economy would be at this point because it does appear that he has switched from being kind of a net bear overall to perhaps being a net bull at least for the time being not not saying that this would continue forever but at least that's what his portfolio currently reflects is a overall shift in sentiment you know going from something that's more hesitant kind of only investing in the most defensive plays out there um and actually having a pretty large short position on semiconductors I mean that was a big position he had that did not play out as he thought it would and he did have to exit that most likely at a loss it would have been difficult for him to have exited that even just breaking even so you know bur was incorrect when it came to semiconductors um it seems like he realized that he didn't go long semiconductors but he did go long much more than what he previously had in his portfolio um so that's kind of the big ticket items of bur's portfolio I don't want to say that he's banking on something like a extreme stock market melt up kind of scenario like what David Hunter has pointed out although it seems to kind of be bordering on that perhaps but maybe it's more so just a a generic shift back to you know seeing the economy perhaps um not as close to a recession as what bur might have previously been thinking um seeing the reality that inflation might continue to Trend down therefore the FED could begin you know cutting rates and the market would in fact probably continue to rally on that so perhaps a lot of what bu um what convinced him to go long was in fact just overall fed expectations um and the markets definitely run very hard with the you know the meeting the FED had back in November where they hinted at three rate Cuts this year and since then Powell's tried to kind of talk that down but the Market's still running with that and kind of assuming that the FED will cut rates that many times and uh you know perhaps that is a decent amount of what played into bur uh switching to being net bullish but you know overall I'm not trying to provide Financial advice in any way with this video um I did find it very interesting that bur went long a stock like Big Lots that I also you know found potential and kind of saw interest in that uh starting about six months ago um just a very beaten down retailer kind of priced in for bankruptcy at this point but um looking at their balance sheet and everything it appears that they're actually going to make a pretty strong comeback in my opinion um so it is interesting to see bur go long something like that as well um it does very much s resemble kind of his early position his activist investor position in Big Lots or not Big Lots in GameStop sorry confusing those two but um and that played out very well for bur he actually exited that position too early um had he held on he would have made a lot more in that position of his but you know overall takes for Michael bur's portfolio this year so far is you know heading into 2024 he appeared to be very bullish and he had to close out of a short position and you know he's net Bull on the um small business small cap perhaps um but you know overall it it is interesting to see how he had had to switch his overall assessment from being bearish to being bullish um and overall out there in the market I'm kind of amazed right now with how many institutional investors are still just doubling down on being kind of Perma Bears if they've basically if they've been bearish the last year and they've been proven Incorrect and you know they're forecasts have not played out as they expected they're actually kind of doubling down now and while you know maybe they're a lot more intelligent than me maybe that's the correct place to be right now is being bearish and doubling down because maybe this is kind of the market top here but you know that's not what I see looking at sentiment especially just the sentiment of institutional investors being so skeptical it does lead me to believe there's a lot of money out on the sidelines right now that that this is not in fact a market blowoff top as many of them are saying but that the blowoff top could in fact be a lot higher than here um this is not meant to be taken as advice in any way shape or form um but just an overall assessment of bur it appears he was able to kind of rework his framework and switch to being bullish whereas a lot of these other institutional investors could be a lot more slow to Pivot U maybe they never do maybe some of them just continue to stay bearish and kind of miss out on everything which you know might not be that bad um but I guess in hindsight um looking like at the dotom bubble and things like that there were a lot of institutional investors that were very bearish for years and then finally they kind of had to Pivot to being long and um they got caught in the top of the dotom bubble but you know like um that it's kind of a side note but almost just saying how it's a surprising to see how many in investors and especially on the institutional side are staying skeptical for this long um I'll just be curious to see if and when that changes but you know overall Michael bur um kind of a legendary investor I like to keep track of and keep in mind when I'm making overall decisions kind of gauging where things are at overall I like to keep his uh overall positions and opinions in mind but I would love to hear what all of you think about Michael bur and his overall thoughts on stocks his positions as well you know what you think about all of this in the comment section below and if you liked this video just consider subscribing giving it a thumbs up and I hope to see all of you again at some point
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