저자: Logan—게스트없음,마이클버리트윗해설 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 트윗을 해설하며, 연준이 인플레이션을 실제로 잡을 의지가 없고 경기침체 후 다시 양적완화로 돌아갈 것이라는 'Crack-up Boom(붕괴형 호황)' 시나리오를 설명한다. 첫째, 버리의 주장: 연준은 0.5%p 금리인상을 주가·소비자 지출을 위해 '빼기'용으로만 쓰고 있으며, 인플레 대응은 허풍(bluff)이라는 취지다. 실질금리는 역사상 가장 마이너스 폭이 크다고 설명한다. 둘째, 연준의 딜레마: 실제로는 공격적으로 긴축하지 않으면서 말로만 강경한 태도를 보여야 하고, 경기가 꺾이면 결국 통화 정책 바주카를 재장전해 재정 풋(fiscal put)을 떠받칠 것이라는 전개다. 셋째, Crack-up Boom의 정의: 오스트리아학파(미제스) 개념으로, 신용 팽창이 지속되며 경기침체와 초인플레이션이 동시에 오고 결국 화폐 신뢰가 무너지는 상황을 말한다. 진행자는 이를 바이마르 독일에 비유한다. 넷째, 달러 패권 및 대안: 러시아·중국의 SWIFT 우회, BRICS의 비달러 결제 움직임을 달러 쇠퇴의 근거로 든다. 이후 브레턴우즈 같은 새 합의, 통화 바스켓(짐 릭카즈 언급), 또는 CBDC로 갈 가능성을 언급하며 CBDC의 통제 위험을 경고한다. 결론적으로 진행자는 연준이 긴축을 끝까지 하지 않을 것이므로 장기적으로 인플레이션과 달러 약세 위험이 크다고 본다. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 전망과 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome back to the contrarian my name is logan today i will be talking about a tweet michael bury just put out there now it's pretty uncommon to see michael bury's tweets actually on his own twitter account thankfully there's some archives out there where you can find most of his tweets but he tends to delete them after just a few hours of them being up on twitter i'm not entirely sure why but he just likes to be a pretty reserved guy i think and i can definitely understand that as well so i'll just dive into michael bury's tweet very soon here effectively he's saying that the fed is bluffing at this point the fed is not aggressively fighting inflation they're just trying to gain a little bit of ground before the economy goes into another recession and they inevitably need to reverse course and do more quantitative easing and effectively a crack up boom would result out of this so i'll just dive into michael bury's tweet right now without adding any further thoughts of mine and i'll get into what he's likely referring to after that fed has no intention of fighting inflation serial half point rate hikes are for getting elevation before stocks and the consumer tap out same with rapid fire qt the fed's all about reloading the monetary bazooka so it can ride to the rescue and finance the fiscal put so effectively michael bury is saying the federal reserve right now is all talk and no action and if we look at where the real rate of returns are they're extremely negative they have arguably never been this negative before at least in several thousand years we do not have data from back then obviously but it has never been this low in a modern history back in 1980 which is when the cpi was at you know the closest it's been to where it currently is have to go back all the way to 1981 i believe to get back to where inflation was at 8.5 percent annualized rate so it's insane where bond yields are in relation to inflation so in other words the real rate of return has never been lower than where it currently is now where this puts the fed is in a very sticky situation because they have to act like they're aggressively fighting inflation when in fact they are not doing that so they're having to put out ever more increasingly you know talkative statements like we will begin aggressively raising rates etc however michael bury is saying that they're merely trying to gain a little bit of elevation above where they were in you know the short end of the curve with the federal funds rate being basically zero percent prior to the first 25 basis point rate hike which was done about a month ago so now they're sitting at you know a quarter of a percent of a interest rate on the federal funds rate when inflation is at 8.5 percent that's still very negligible of a rate of return uh however you know the fed might get in a few more uh rate hikes prior to when the economy could go into a recession but michael berry is implying that that could be pretty soon based off of some past tweets he's put out there basically as soon as inflation begins to run out of control which it definitely already is in that territory the consumer spending is going to fall very dramatically as a result corporate profits would fall dramatically and the economy would go into a recession as it typically has always done when inflation begins to get out of control effectively when the price of everything goes up consumers are able to purchase less goods and services and as a result gdp falls and that puts the economy into the definition of what a recession is is just a contraction in gdp so in other words then it's back to more quantitative easing for the fed in other words michael bury's saying they're just trying to reload monetary bazooka at this point and they would effectively have to deploy all of this money out there in this coming recession regardless of where the inflation is and inflation could still be a very big issue at that time it might not have contracted very much in other words so in other words there could still be a very high rate of inflation out there uh even with the coming recession going on so this would be what is known as a crack up boom and this is kind of a uncommon term out there we very rarely see these in fact they really only occur at the end of um you know monetary errors so you know weimar germany type of inflation this would have been a crack up boom kind of era um a crack up boom according to investopedia is an economic crisis that involves a recession in the real economy in a collapse of the monetary system due to continual credit expansion and results in unsustainable rapid price increases this concept of a crack up boom was developed by austrian economist ludwig von mises as a part of the austrian business cycle theory the crack at boom is characterized by two key features one excessively expansionary monetary policy that in addition to the consequences uh described in austrian business cycle theory leads to out-of-control inflation expectations and two a resulting bout of hyperinflation which ends in the abandonment of the currency by market participants and a simultaneous recession or depression so in other words michael brewery is saying that in all likelihood the fed continues on its current path of very marginally raising rates until they are forced to reverse and just continue to expand monetary supply with quantitative easing maybe more direct payments to consumers whatever they need to get the economy going again but as a result of that this would likely result in you know very high inflation if not hyperinflation and this would eventually result in the demise of the dollar now we're already beginning to see this with regards to russia and china russia in particular which was cut off from the swift banking system is effectively going to be coming up with their own means of exchange or different means of exchanges for doing uh trade with certain countries who are willing to do it with them recently in a noticeable press release they just announced or they encourage the brics nations to essentially join forces with them to come up with a means of exchange which does not utilize the us dollar or the swift banking system so this is very significant but we do need to see how this does shape out um but in other words the federal can continue on its current path until they cannot do it any longer until inflation gets way too far out of the bag and they are not able to finance any more debt and this would eventually lead to the demise of the us dollar so in other words easy money is never easy to put back in the bottle and the fed will always choose to print more money to try to print its way out of its sticky situation rather than aggressively raising rates and crashing this everything bubble that it's created in other words this never has happened before where the fed just decides you know hey we're gonna choose what to do what is right we're going to really aggressively raise rates we're going to reduce our balance sheet we're going to allow prices to collapse as much as they need to the fed has never in the history of central banking has never chosen to do that option so it's very unlikely if not uh unfor unforeseen that they would choose to um go with this option as you know opposed to just printing more money trying to print their way out keep everybody happy for as long as they can they have never done that before so in understanding a crack at boom a little bit better the kraka boom develops out of the same process of credit expansion and the resulting distortion of the economy that occurs during the normal boom phase of austrian business cycle theory in the crack up boom the central bank attempts to sustain the boom indefinitely without regard to consequences such as inflation and asset price bubbles the problem comes when the government continuously pours more and more money injecting it into the economy to give it a short-term boost which eventually triggers a fundamental breakdown in the economy in their efforts to prevent any downturn in the economy monetary authorities continue to expand the supply of money and credit at an accelerating pace and avoid turning off the taps of money supply until it is too late and obviously until now the fed has had some pretty good excuses or they've tried to make them good excuses in order to keep a quantitative easing going and some more very generous programs that were instituted at the beginning of the pandemic obviously initially they had the excuse of the pandemic itself they stretched that out for as long as they could then they had the excuse of supply chain issues they've stretched that out until you know now even when they've gotten worse and now they have the excuse of the whole russia and ukraine conflict even though the us really doesn't have much to do in that conflict it is affecting the us obviously but they're coming up with any sort of excuses they can to keep this cycle going and to really not fight inflation in any meaningful way so in other words the fed knows that it is stuck they really just need to keep the narrative going for as long as they possibly can because when the narrative does flip and when the average consumer becomes aware that inflation is raging out of control and when they become aware that the fed is not serious about fighting it that's when hyperinflation really sets in because at that point people just begin hoarding goods uh demand for goods and services goes through the roof where the prices go through the roof as a result as well and basically it just makes matters worse so if anything once it finally does reach that stage of the mindset of inflation setting in consumers realizing that the fed is not fighting inflation that's when the cat is really out of the bag and the fed has really no hope at that point of ever getting it under control so you might be asking yourself well what would happen after this crack up boom and effectively what would need to happen after the demise of the dollar as the u.s world's reserve currency is something similar to what put it in place as the reserve currency which was the bretton woods agreement and so central banks would need to come together they would need to form a new agreement and say you know this time we're gonna you know have this be the world's reserve currency it's probably not going to be one currency it's likely going to be something like what jim rickards has talked about it being more a basket of currencies around the world there's also the likelihood that it ends up being some sort of central bank digital currency obviously at the world government summit which just happened recently it was very strongly hinted that central banks around the world are very quickly going in that direction which is is not a good sign if you uh you know like freedom in your transactions but you know governments around the world love controlling that sort of thing so unfortunately that's likely their direction that um central banking is going is towards a central bank digital currency and in other words they wouldn't allow another sort of exchange outside of that it would give them a lot more control i highly recommend that you go and watch that clip out there that they just announced uh this new sort of a development in the central bank digital currency world but all this being said this is a long-winded way of explaining michael bury's tweet regarding inflation the federal reserve and how they're not very aggressive and how this is likely all designed so all of that being said let me know what you guys think down in the comments regarding michael bury and his thoughts i like to talk about views that are not commonly expressed out there in the mainstream media so if you like this content just consider subscribing to this channel and i hope to see you again
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