저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2023년 2분기 13F 공시를 분석하며, 그가 S&P500과 나스닥100에 대규모 풋옵션(명목가치 각각 약 8억8600만달러, 7억3900만달러)을 보유해 시장 하락에 베팅했다고 정리한다. 이 포지션은 과거 시점의 스냅샷이며, 공시 이후 지수가 10~15% 상승했을 가능성이 커 그의 수익성은 어려웠을 것으로 본다. 버리는 주식시장이 금리 수준 대비 과도하게 고평가됐다고 보는 관점을 가진 것으로 해석되며, 과거 주택시장 공매도 때 너무 일찍 베팅해 고객 불만을 샀던 전례를 언급한다. 2분기에 알리바바, JD.com, 지역은행 등을 매도했고, 더리얼리얼, iHeart미디어, 워너브라더스디스커버리, 일본 ETF는 매수했다. 진행자는 버리가 방향성은 맞을 수 있으나 타이밍은 불확실하다고 보며, 시장 과열이 더 이어질지 여부를 열린 질문으로 남긴다.
다듬은 글
good day subscribers welcome back to the contrarian everybody today we have big news surrounding Michael burry made famous in The Big Short is 13f filing for the second quarter of this year just came out today and it shows that he has some major short positions on two major U.S indices the S P 500 and the NASDAQ so today we'll take a deep dive into his updated portfolio especially these two options position of his and just take a look at what Michael burry's thoughts could be for the market right now and maybe a more updated uh thing we could go off of right now is his Twitter he has been tweeting a little bit recently um and his Twitter account has been kind of off and on but he has been tweeting some fairly bearish posts recently so obviously his second quarter 13f filing is kind of looking in the rear view mirror at his uh Scion Asset Management his hedge fund um it's not a current view it's rather a snapshot of what it was like at the end of the second quarter now taking a look at an article I found on Reuters it's saying that bury has bought major bearish option positions against the S P 500 and the NASDAQ 100.
so Michael burry the money manager made famous in the book and film The Big Short held bearish options against the broad S P 500 and NASDAQ 100 index at the end of the second quarter according to SEC filing released today and buri's asset sign Asset Management bought put options with a notional value of 739 million against the popular Invesco QQQ trust ETF during the second quarter and separate put options with a notional value of 886 million against the S P 500 ETF spy so these are not small positions of breweries at least the notional value of them this is important to point out that what Brewery would have had to pay for these positions is significantly less for them just because of the nature of options but you know depending on the strike price expiration on these options this is a still a very large position for Michael burry it's probably his largest short position that he's had in the last few years even including the whole 2020 period I don't think he ever got this bearish on the General stock market he had some individual shorts here and there Tesla maybe being the most notable of them but even his Tesla short position I don't think it ever got to be this big now of course put options it's basically a conservative way of going short you're not stuck having to repurchase shares if the stock or index continues to go up but you will lose you know potentially all of your um initial Capital if the stock or fund does not go the direction you think it will and just looking at what the stock market did in the time period that bury held these options or maybe likely held them and I'm just going to say it's hard for him to be up on these positions right now and depending on the duration of these options maybe they're already expired maybe it was a short trade for him he might still be up a little bit on his positions here but I'm just going to say it's going to be hard for him to be because these indices are up you know anywhere 10 to 15 percent in this time period between then and now so it's just going to have been a challenge for Brewery to have timed that well um you know maybe he did have a very short position in it a short time period I don't know and and maybe that happened to just be at the end of June there at the end of the second quarter but it's gonna it's going to have been hard for Brie to have had this have you know been a profitable position for him that's all I'm going to say with with that but you know Brewery is likely correct obviously these stock markets are at you know very uh generous valuations given where uh interest rates have gone um given everything that might structurally be showing economic weakness like the banks uh the issues they've had um maybe looking at housing and some troubling data there so you know he's right to maybe look at fundamentals and say that yeah the stock market's very overvalued unfortunately for bury he's been early before especially in the housing short he had and that almost um went very badly for him with clients getting very frustrated at him um just he was a couple years early with that short even though he was correct at the time that Trend ended up going a couple years longer and so that almost cost him even though he ended up winning big on that eventually it did it was painful for him during that time now um it's also maybe notable to look at other Holdings that Bree sold out of so he sold out of Alibaba and jd.com as well as Regional Banks including Pac West and Western Alliance Bank Corp that it had during the first quarter um and it also sold 150 000 shares of First Republic Bank but it's unclear whether that was actually before this Bank collapsed or not um now long positions bury actually has added some long positions too so he's not completely bearish he more than doubled his stake in an online luxury goods Market at the real real Inc um which is up nearly a hundred percent for the year to date so that's been a really winning position for Brie um he added a new stake in I heart media and Haynes brand and Warner Brothers Discovery among others so you know I heart media inspiring her down 16 Warner Brothers is up 43 percent um he also added a Japanese ETF which is a 13.5 percent for the year to date so uh yeah this this was Michael burry's updated kind of main themes in his portfolio but it is very interesting I mean the takeaway headline from all of this is that Brewery is short um pretty largely to a large extent he is short on the NASDAQ and the S P 500 so apparently he sees some major headwinds for these you know major U.S stock indices and rightly so it's pretty obvious they're very overvalued um I mean the real question here is does the current trend of overvaluation and growing speculation continue before it goes down inevitably is Michael burry early again on this one like he was Prior with the housing uh crash and everything like that I don't know but I'd love to hear all of your thoughts about this in the comment section below let me know what you think about Michael burry's current positioning being short of these major US indices and also the recent stocks he's bought is he onto something here um with some of these picks that he has love to hear your thoughts about this in the comment section below and I hope to see all of you again at some point
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