저자: TheContrarian진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 1분기 13F 변경(중국 대형주 확대, 물리적 금ETF 매수, 미국 빅테크·소형주 매도)을 분석. CPI 하회로 증시·금·은·코인 상승, 밈주식 부활(게임스탑·AMC 류)에 대해 언급. 중국 주식 저평가로 재평가 기대, 소형주는 금리 하락 시 캐치업 가능성 제시. 금·은 광산주 관심은 아직 낮다고 봄.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the contrarian everyone I know it's been a couple of weeks since I made a video and know it's not been because I've been bored or the Market's been uneventful and in fact a lot has happened that I hope to touch on today I've just been really swamped with work and life generally has been busy which isn't a bad thing but you know there's a lot to talk about so I want to talk about Michael bur's updated 13f filing for the first quarter of 2024 I want to talk about the changes he made in that portfolio um filing also we have stocks gold and silver basically everything ripping higher on CPI that just came out today this morning lower than expected and everything is rallying on that so I want to touch on that and then also we have meme stocks really heating up again they are back to meming or whatever you call it they're doing what they do best and you know I really want to talk about that as well although you know maybe there's not as much to talk about there because it's kind of obvious but first off the main thing to touch on is Michael bur and his updated portfolio changes he made in the first quarter of this year and there's quite a few things to note um bur's an investor I like to pay attention to kind of like Warren Buffett or Ray Doo or others like him um although bur I would say probably has a more accurate track record in recent history than someone like Buffett bur has probably actually outperformed the market whereas Buffett has really underperformed in the last 20 years or so whereas bur you know it's really interesting to see what positions he has and I guess to summarize Michael bur's changes that occurred is he bought more Chinese stocks large cap Chinese stocks he bought a physical gold ETF which is a big change because bur actually has been somewhat critical of gold and silver as an investment or he's definitely been critical of gold bugs and the extent to which um there's almost a uh ideology behind gold and silver as he puts it so that's a really notable change to note and then also bur sold out of a lot of his um large US tech type of positions and small caps as well he sold out of those so apparently he's not as bullish on um US tech or small caps and looking at his portfolio he narrowed the focus so he has fewer positions now than at the end of 2023 but he actually upped his overall allocation so he's maybe not as net bearish as he was in Prior quarters which is interesting but um you know he's focusing on less stocks he maybe has I think 16 positions or something like that and you know previously it it was a lot higher so bur he's bullish on Chinese stocks um jd.com is his largest position followed by Alibaba and he also added a position to Buu which all three of those are large cap Chinese stocks and you know it's no mystery why he likely added um Chinese stocks are just so undervalued in comparison to their us counterparts and even European counterparts I mean it's really hard to find a um you know a stock market of a large developed country or developing country whatever you want to term China as but needless to say a large stock market that is as undervalued as China's has been and it's really only in the last month or so that Chinese stocks have been rallying you know maybe a little longer than that six weeks but the first four months of of this year um they were still going down the toilet so I mean getting ridiculously cheap you were getting Alibaba down a PE multiple of seven or something like that or maybe even lower jd.com as well so you know it's really no mystery why bur added so aggressively to these positions um you know I myself I do have a couple of Chinese stock positions I have Alibaba as well as you know Buras too and I also have which bur does not have I see that kind of as a more Tech growth uh EV related play um I can see why bur wouldn't get behind something like Neo but you know bur bottom line is bullish on China going forward um you know even if China doesn't do great I think they could just do decent and the stock market could perform really well in China just considering how abysmal of a return Chinese stocks have had in the last two years um it's just such an unloved sector and you know as the US counterparts get extremely overvalued you could com you know compare them um you know like looking at Amazon or Google or the comparison to US Stocks those are maybe very overvalued whereas Chinese stocks are very undervalued so you could see a big shift start to take place of other investors like bu starting to to you know allocate Capital to Chinese stocks and they could perform really well as as a result perhaps um now talking about gold and bur's recent position in Gold it's really notable that he took this because you know not only has he been critical of gold and silver as an investment in the past and now he seems to have changed his mind there but also his you know how he ended up allocating is maybe not what a typical Institutional Investor would go with he went with a physical ETF you want the spra gold physical ETF and this differs from a you know popular ETF like GLD in that you know you actually are physically um guaranteed your gold you know GLD it's there's a lot of questions as to you know how much physical gold is actually behind the ETF and it's not a one to one backing but uh Sprout definitely has a one toone backing there so app ly bur sees value in going with um the spra ETF as opposed to GLD that does not have a full uh backing with physical gold so maybe bur is seeing it as kind of a insurance type of position but also you know gold has performed really well so far this year um so depending on when he got on board with it in the first quarter you know it could just also be a trade type of position for him um he did not go with any sort of miners which I find interesting um because the miners have you know not performed as well as they typically do during gold uh bull markets at least not yet I would expect that to change here pretty soon but overall just sentiment around gold and silver has remained so low that in terms of interest in the miners that has really yet to happen and you know not talking about bu but almost my own assessment is once gold and silver silver especially I would say once silver starts decisively breaking through the $30 an ounce area that could um you know prompt a lot more interest in gold and silver stocks almost with regards to thinking of all the media attention that could get so far um I've been surprised with how little interest there has been um both from the media side and from just your general you know public investor out there there's been very little interest precious medals so far this year even though they've performed very well and so you know I think almost a better indication of when the miners would start to perform well could be when the whole media and news cycle starts catching up with it so maybe that's a better indication I don't know but very notable that bu did buy into a physical gold ETF um he also sold out of large US tech positions he had I mainly think think of alphabet and Amazon he had two large positions in these stocks he sold out of them um I might disagree with bu a little bit here I think that US tech even though it's overvalued you could say historically on a historical basis US tech is very generously valued especially when compared with something like Chinese stocks but um you know bur apparently thinks that you know big Tech kind of maybe has reached a plateau maybe a Ai and that whole bandwagon has gone about as far as it can according to BU and so he rotated out of alphabet and Google and definitely small caps as well he sold out of some positions he had had in small caps and I would have to disagree with bur here as well I think that small caps are setting up for some pretty sizable catch-up rallies just considering how how much for example the Russell 2000 Index has lagged the s P 500 or the NASDAQ I think the US economy could again kind of do decent um and I think small caps could have some big catchup rallies actually so you know obviously they're more dependent on rates so if rates stay high small caps will probably you know not do as well and if rates come down though like I I think is probably likely in the coming months then you really could start to see small caps um perform an outperformed their large Tech or large cap counterpart so you know bur also sold out of small caps I might disagree with him a little bit there too um you know but now broadly speaking talking about the stock market of course CPI is probably the most important CPI report so far this year in terms of the effect it had on the stock market in that everything you know bonds stocks crypto gold and silver pretty much you name it it went higher today maybe the exception is mem stocks those did not go higher today but you know that's kind of a whole separate category of um Financial instrument alog together but basically everything except meme stocks ripped higher on CPI coming in just a touch lower than what was expected I mean it didn't come in dramatically lower I think it was maybe one or 2/ ten0 of a percent low lower than what was expected um but you know when the markets are so focused on month-to-month data like that um apparently it has a big effect and was definitely visible today you know Wednesday the day when CPI came out in the morning stocks gapped up and then continued rallying throughout the day closed at new all-time highs so you know it goes to show how important the monthly data is apparently I think most of all for investor sentiment out there um it appears like there were just a lot of investors on the sidelines waiting to almost verify that inflation is trending downwards and continuing to Trend downwards and then when that did happen all of a sudden it was almost like everybody started piling into to the markets so you know whether it was Nvidia uh rallying aggressively um semiconductors broadly speaking um it looks like something like what David Hunter is talking talked about a lot and I do credit him completely for this he's basically the only one saying that you know this melt up was likely that appears to be happening now where regardless of valuations on these stocks they continue to Rally higher not because of you know the economy being particularly great or the you know companies being that great per se but um just with sentiment being as skeptical as it has been um as much cash has been on the Sidelines or in Money Market funds and things like that um and then you have you know the whole fear missing out type of phenomenon start to take place where people take a look back and they're like dang if I had gotten into the markets a year ago I would be up 20 or 30% or if I'd gotten into Nvidia I'd be up 300% like that kind of mentality starts to take over and I think this is a great time to talk about the recent Resurgence of meme stocks in that yeah you're starting to see that take hold and even as much as people got burned in GameStop and AMC and all the other mem stocks um three years ago in early 2021 I mean apparently all of the sins back then have been forgotten and people are willing to um go to the casino all over again um you know everything um whether it it had anything to do with what Keith Gil was tweeting about or not or it could have just been speculation out there Rel to what he was referring to um Keith Gil was one of the most probably the most notable social media influencer who helped to precipitate the GameStop short squeeze I was definitely peripherally involved with that not as much obviously as Keith Gil um more so I was talking about it a lot earlier before Keith and then when it started happening people took note that I had you know talked about GameStop and the short interest there as well but Keith really was on the you know bandwagon of pushing it on Reddit and other social media platforms out there but you know long story short Keith Gil came back to Twitter after three years of being silent apparently and even just tweeting about random memes and and things like that started you know sending enthusiasm all over the place in terms of these previous meme stocks GameStop and AMC in particular um you know the short interest was not super high on these maybe 20% short interest or something but overall just a massive um gamma squeeze you could probably term it as that took place and sent GameStop up I don't know 3 or 400% and about the same for AMC and actually today they came down about 50% from the highs they ended up hitting yesterday so you know I have no idea if um this is a lasting mem stock you know sequel 2.0 you know are we going to start to see meme stocks rip higher for the next week or two you know I have no way of knowing that um my hunch is that it you know kind of like any sort of movie sequel um it's rarely better than the original so I'm guessing that this might not be the equivalent of what we saw three years ago but hey I've been wrong about a lot of other things so maybe this is even more spectacular than back then but especially with GameStop we just do not have that level of short interest this time so even those shorts are maybe down a few billion you know it has not bankrupted any hedge funds yet so um you know there's not the over 100% short interest in GameStop which just mathematically impossible to You Know cover that kind of a position without making the stock um go to the Moon um but this time you know it does not have that level of short interest and I guess more importantly it'll depend on how much how many people are willing to get into something like this that is definitely a a gamble you know if you're getting into GameStop at current price levels or anything close to it it's a complete gamble um like crypto in my opinion um so mem stocks are back basically everything is ripping higher um um in line with what David Hunter has been saying I I see that continuing as well I see gold and silver continuing to rip hire um you know bur actually bought into gold so apparently that has his Blessing in a certain extent a reluctant gold bull michaelb might be um bought Chinese stocks and yeah he updated his portfolio so um I'll link a uh whale wisdom you know his his uh portfolio to page on the description below and you know if you like this video just consider giving it a thumbs up subscribing to the channel and I hope to see all of you again at some point
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