저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 4분기 13F 공시를 분석하며 그의 최대 보유 종목(알리바바, JD.com 등 중국주)과 신규 매수 종목을 소개함. 빅랏츠(Big Lots)는 파산가치 수준으로 저평가되어 있고 공매도 잔고 약 25%로 숏스퀴즈 가능성이 있다고 주장. 4분기 실적과 1분기 가이던스가 흑자전환을 보여주면 주가 반등 가능성이 크다고 봄. 다만 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
holy smokers everybody we have big news today coming from Sion Asset Management which is Michael bur's investment firm we just received his fourth quarter 13f filing from last year and there are a lot of changes to put it mildly that Michael bre has done in the last three months um most notably of which is that he has a pretty sizable position in Big Lots which is a beaten down retailer your truly has talked about for approximately the last 6 months I made a couple of videos about Big Lots I'll also break down a lot of bur's other positions but I do find this one perhaps the most unique and pertinent um given the fact that bur has been pretty legendary in terms of getting on board with some very significant past stocks that have gone viral to put it mildly I'm referring to his Big Lots position which yours truly was also involved with but um you know first of all to break down Michael bur's portfolio stocks that he bought into heavily his two largest positions are actually Chinese stocks which I have also talked about recently just the extreme undervaluation of Chinese stocks but bur's two largest positions are Alibaba and jd.com he boosted his Alibaba position in this uh prior quarter and he added to jd.com as well so two of his largest positions are in Chinese stocks and both of these stocks have very undervalued PE multiples when compared with their us or european counterparts the entire Chinese stock market has just been slaughtered as a result of the real estate crash and the dollar strengthening against other currencies such as the the Chinese you want and other factors as well but apparently bur sees a lot of potential in Chinese stocks some other notable Holdings of his kind of going down his largest positions he also bought into Oracle the US tech giant City Bank which I was a bit surprised by CVS Google another big Tech name Warner Brothers and then he does have two positions in Squarespace as well as post which kind of surprised me as well they're two um Payment Processing Financial Services related stocks and bur apparently sees a lot of potential in those two and then we get down to Big Lots so Big Lots is you know has been interesting for me for the last six months or so and apparently now bur sees interest in it as well um sees value in it to put it mildly um big locks is currently being valued less than what the bankrupt Bed Bath and Beyond was valued out when that stock was still listed but um had you know declared bankruptcy so it's being valued at liquidation type valuations if you take a look at its price to sales multiple its Price to Book multiple it's nowhere close to its peers out there whether you're looking at Dollar General or oi's Bargain Outlet or some other you know dollar tree type stock um that Big Lots might be comparable to you could 10x Big Lot stock from here and it would still be cheap compared to these other multiples going around in the industry so there's no other way around it than Big Lots is currently being valued uh at liquidation type levels it the market is pricing it in for bankruptcy and the key question to ask here is is Big Lots likely to go bankrupt in the near-term future and my personal assessment of that you know six months ago and and now is no given the macro environment given um just the you know likely Tailwinds I see coming up uh with falling interest rates with um you know in inflation becoming less of an issue with consumers you know spending more again with earnings reports coming better than expected for a lot of companies out there I do actually think that retail will get a boost as well um a lot of this I'm sure has been because of just how unloved the small cap area especially the small cap retail area has been in the last year these stocks have sold off very dramatically it's very telling just to look at a chart of Big Lots and think that three years ago this was a $70 stock and it's now down some 95% from that so it just shows you what sentiment what a shift in sentiment can do to a company's valuation it can make it go down the toilet completely and for Big Lots this has definitely happened um I don't want to compare it you know entirely to GameStop because the short interest on Big Lots is about 25% depending on what uh data you data source you get it from uh 25% you know that's a decently High short interest it could undergo a pretty significant short squeeze especially given the kind of hype that bu buying into it could have um you know this is just the first day and you know a lot of people don't actually they don't you know know sort of mainstream Outlets of written articles on this yet to my knowledge so this video might actually be kind of on the beginning end of the news cycle but you know um Big Lots could undergo a short squeeze of sorts as a result of bur buying into it another important thing I'll point out is Big lot's first quarter um you know guidance and also their fourth quarter earnings are coming out the beginning of March uh that is when Big Lots will be releasing this um so I do anticipate that this could be a sort of return to profitability for Big Lots just looking at statements that Bruce Thorne their CEO has put out and others um you know if Big Lots does return to profitability in the fourth quarter if they give positive guidance for the first quarter of this year and going forward in this year you could really see a return in sentiment which you know from this level where the stock has been completely beaten down so much you know you could see it uh you know rally pretty substantially off of this um you know none of this is financial advice saying you should go all in on Big Lots or anything like that um you know it could turn into another type of GameStop scenario of people getting into it um you know that might happen I don't know what the likelihood of that is yet there is a lot of appetite for that out there in the retail trading space so maybe they do get behind a stock like Big Lots seeing that Michael bur is now behind it um you know but bottom line Michael B sees a lot of potential in Big Lots like myself he sees how beaten down they are being valued at bankruptcy valuations um basically nothing better than bankruptcy being expected right now by the market um and so anything better than bankruptcy would would be a plus for this stock um and I do actually think that you know if they are profitable in the fourth quarter and going forward into this year the the Stocker rally pretty substantially so that is why I personally do have a pretty substantial position in Big Lots at this point obviously not saying what you should do um this is not meant to be taken as Financial advice but it is really interesting to look at bur's positions he does actually seem to be net bullish on stocks now at this point which is a little surprising given past statements bur has made um you know he was shorting the semiconductors pretty aggressively that has not played out well for him so maybe he has had kind of a change of of Outlook of sorts you know he bought into Google and Oracle some big Tech names so apparently he thinks that big Tech will continue to do well and then also the financial services sector with toast and Squarespace um these are very beaten down Financial processing and payment um related stock as well so you know apparently bur sees potential in those too he sees a return of you know small business activity uh transactions and things like that to where these stocks would improve um you know there's a lot to dig into I'll put the link to bur's 13f filing in the link uh in the description of this video U below but I would love to hear what all of you think about this video Michael bur's positions Big Lots you know what what is he thinking there um I'd love to hear what you think about this video and I hope to see all of you again at some point
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