저자: 진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 채권은 역사적으로 드물게 저렴한 수준이며 금리 인상 사이클이 막바지일 수 있어 하락 여유가 줄었다는 주장. [채권 시장 현황과 배경] 미 국채는 3년 연속 손실 흐름을 보이며 약 42% 하락했다고 언급됨. 같은 시기 MBS와 우량 회사채도 타격을 받음. 연준 기준금리는 2008~2022년 대부분 0% 근처였고, 최근 2~3년 사이 급등함. [금리와 채권 가격의 관계] 금리와 채권 가격은 반비례. 금리 상승은 채권 가격 하락을 의미. 연준의 양적긴축(QT)과 국채 순매도로 공급이 늘어 금리 상승 압력이 커졌다고 설명. [주식과의 괴리] 채권이 이처럼 폭락했는데도 주식시장은 사상 최고치에서 약 10% 아래에 머물러 역사적으로 보기 드문 상황이라고 언급. [Barron's 기사 인용과 향후 전망] Barron's 기사: 10년물 국채금리가 8월 4%에서 4.9%로 상승했으나 연준 금리 인상 사이클은 막바지일 수 있음. 시장은 올해 추가 인상 확률을 25%로 봄. 기사 제목은 '이제 채권을 울며 비난하기를 멈추고 살 때'. [빌 애크먼 동향] 애크먼은 최근까지 채권 숏 포지션을 유지하다 청산했다고 언급. 2020년 코로나 당시 여행·레저주 숏 후 방송에서 시장을 비관했던 사례를 들어 그의 시장 영향력을 지적. [진행자 견해] 채권 가격은 바닥에 가까울 가능성이 크고 금리 정점도 가까울 것으로 봄. 비관론이 많은 것은 항복(capitulation) 신호일 수 있다는 해석. 다만 바닥 예측은 어렵다고 유보. 연준이 국채 경매 지원에 나설지, QT를 줄일지가 변수. 금리 정점 예측에 반대하는 피터 쉬프 등 반론도 소개. [리스크와 결론] 연준 정책 시차(12~24개월)를 감안하면 긴축 효과가 아직 경기에 충분히 반영되지 않았을 수 있음. 달러 기축통화 지위나 국채의 안전자산 지위가 끝나는 것 아니냐는 질문을 던지며 채권 진입 시점에 대한 시청자 의견을 요청. 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the contrarian everybody today I'll be talking about the bond market are bonds a good buy right now historically obviously I'm not giving personalized Financial advice I never can I don't do that on this channel but I will be talking about a recent article that Baron's just put out really giving some perspective on the historical cheapness that bonds currently are right now how it's very rare just looking in the previous hundred years or more for bonds to be as cheap cheap as they are also looking at some recent action by Bill Amman a hedge fund owner Trader I'm definitely more um prominent on social media as well he has been short bonds up until recently and then apparently he just went long bonds we don't really know how much yet but that does uh indicate maybe something uh changing there that he might know about or you know uh even regardless of if there's some sort of inside knowledge she has um maybe it's just interesting to look at what he's done recently as well but first looking at an article that Baron's put out just a couple of days ago uh it's funny because uh the picture on the cover is of flowers uh which maybe reminds me of tulip Mania um you know previous bubble that occurred title of their article is it's time to stop crying about bonds and buy them instead rarely in American history has it been this bad for bonds and rarely has it been such an opportune time to buy the bond route has been brutal supposedly Ultra safe treasuries are on track to lose money for three consecutive years declining 42% over that period other bonds whether mortgage back Securities or highquality corporates have also taken a beating leaving investors with losses from what are supposed supposed to provide a ballast in a portfolio so what they're getting at first off is just in the last 2 3 years interest rates generally have gone from very low levels to historically more consistent levels but compared to the last three decades very elevated levels from where rates have been so the federal funds rate in particular was kept near 0% for a while during Trump's presidency um Jerome Powell tried to normalize interest rates um it got up to maybe 2.7% before the market through the you know tantrum in Fall of 2018 and so they had to rapidly cut rates then of course they said that it wasn't because there was severe issues as a result of their tightening but they kept rates very low and then uh with coid they cut them to basically a 0% fed funds rate so throughout the prior 15 years from 2008 to 2022 approximately the FED funds rate was between Zer and 2 and a half% but usually around 0% so very low level during that time period treasuries stayed uh fairly consistent in terms of their ability to just bolster a portfolio because traditionally when a recession would hit the FED would cut uh their rates and the FED funds rate and investors would go into bonds and when investors would buy bonds it would bid up the price and it would lower the rate so key to understanding a bond is it's like a teer totter um when either the rate or the price fluctuates going up the other must go down so when investors bid up the price of bonds whatever they are mortgage bonds treasury bonds when they bid up the price rates fall when uh rates rise that's an indication that prices of the bond itself are falling so it's inverse relationship between those two factors bond yields and bond prices and in the last two or three years um bond yields have risen which indicates a falling in bond prices less inv less investors willing to buy bonds and this of course could be due to a variety of reasons but maybe most notably so is the fed's aggressive withdrawal of purchasing uh bonds whatever they might be uh the FED wanting to um have less of an influence on the market and then in fact going into qt or net selling of Treasury bonds when the FED does that they're actually putting more supply of bonds on the market for investors or groups or whoever needs to whoever would typically buy them there's suddenly a more there's a greater amount of supply of bonds in the market than there otherwise would be and so it's probably largely due to the um rate hikes and the FED tightening program that has led to the route that we've seen in bonds and in fact it's very uh unique for bonds to have suffered this much and for the stock market to still be you know 10% from all-time highs looking at most market indices you really I'm having a hard time thinking of when that has existed in the past because you usually um usually the bond market is much more stable to begin with but also usually when that is down so much you would typically think that the stock market would also be down dramatically as well but so far that's not really the case um but going on further in their article they say uh consider what may come next the end of the bond be Market while long-term yields have spiked lately pushing the 10-year treasury to 4.9% from 4% % in August the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its campaign of interest rate increases Traders see only a 25% chance of another rate hike this year possibly at the feds meeting in December and then they mentioned Bill Amman a prominent Bond bear recently closed out his bets against treasuries um and Bill Amman in particular may be an interesting character to look at because he does like to exert Maybe some of his influence on the market in terms of influencing investors when he can oftentimes to his own benefits so for example looking in in the March April 2020 era it later came out that bill akman actually went short a lot of the Leisure and travel related stocks that were pummeled during that time but he went short and then he actually went on Bloomberg CNBC and basically talked down the stock market saying like oh the co virus is going to shut everything down it's going to you know potentially destroy a lot of businesses so he was he was out there exerting influence on investors basically saying that they should um you know sell some of these stocks or I don't know if he said it exactly but he was trying to influence sentiment and so you know it's kind of interesting to then see him do the same thing with bonds um taking a a short position on bonds uh talking them down on his Twitter account I don't know if he appeared on any uh main mainstream news as well as doing that but then now to see him covering his short and also talking about that um you know he might know that something is a foot with regards to a Fed change policy something like that um I will point out that just looking at investor sentiment in the bond market right now there's a lot of people out there calling for much higher rates even than where they currently are on the longer term treasuries things like that um you know I'm I tend to be of the opinion that we're pro that's probably an indication that we're close to capitulation in the bond market when so many people are skeptical of uh of this being the bottom when they're calling for lower prices uh it does kind of make me reminisce of Prior um bottoms that we've seen in markets but you know it is hard to call bottoms exactly U Bill Amman appears to think that you know this is close to the bottom and he's covered his short position that he had on bonds um but you know a lot of this could depend too on does the FED begin to um step back in and purchase bonds or do less uh QT that they were saying that they would do um do they have to reverse course because at the end of the day um the FED has the power to back these treasury auctions that are going on if Janet Yellen starts seeing a lot of things going arai and you know these treasury auctions are not going as well as she would hope or you know as as they should be going she could definitely call up Jerome Powell and say hey you need to back the treasury market I don't really care what kind of narrative you have to spin to do it but you know things are starting to go Ary here um at the end of the day the FED can do that um yes it would be prior to when they were saying that they would be doing that again but they are experts on being way behind the curve like they were with trying to fight inflation to begin with um which is you know a whole different topic in and of itself but it's interesting to look at the fact that there's so much of a lead and lag to their policy that so much of the tightening that they've already done may have actually not even impacted the economy yet just due to the anywhere from 12 to 24mth lag that that has if it's a 12-month lag then about half half of the fed's tightening has actually been felt yet on the economy if it's two years then none of their tightening has been affected has affected the economy yet so you know the FED really uh is behind the curve unfortunately a lot of the time just due to how lagging of an effect their policies can have um but mainly looking at the bond market right now how much of a selloff it's had even in recent weeks um how this has impacted sentiment so dramatically um does lead me to think that you know probably close to bottom in the bond market referring to prices therefore I'm saying that you know yields are probably topping out pretty close to here I know there's going to be a lot of people who disagree with me there Peter Schiff for example he's calling for rates to go much higher he's saying that the that has lost control of you know of the treasury market of Treasury rates um you know maybe they have maybe I'm completely wrong but I do think at the end of the day they have the ability to print money basically as much as they need to back that market and I think if they did that I think a lot of people would suddenly get back in and start buying bonds again but um all this being said I'd like to hear what you all of you think about this in the comment section below um bonds are they is this a terrible time to get into them are they just going to keep going downhill from here is this the end of the you know dollar is the reserve currency is this the end of Treasury Market being seen as the you know gold standard for a portfolio um you know or is this an opportune time to get in you know I'd like to hear all of your thoughts about this in the comments section below I hope to see all of you again at some point
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