JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Fed interest rate pause: 'Fed did the right thing'

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결론: 연준 금리 인상 중단 기대에 대해 두 출연자 모두 인상이 끝났다고 보지 않으며, 추가 인상 가능성을 열어두고 있다. [금리 전망] Dimon은 연준이 금리를 빠르게 올린 것은 옳았고 일시 중단도 타당하나, 인플레이션이 생각보다 끈적할 수 있어 연준이 아직 끝나지 않았을 가능성이 있다고 봤다. Nancy는 Dimon에 동의하며, 고용 지표 등 데이터에 따라 올해 11월 한 차례 추가 인상이 있을 수 있고 가까운 시일 내 금리 인하는 없다고 봤다. [연말 증시] Nancy는 11~12월 연말 랠리가 있을 것으로 본다. 다만 Morgan Stanley의 Mike Wilson처럼 4분기 랠리 가능성이 낮다는 시각도 있다고 언급했다. 현금 보유가 많다고 보며, 인플레이션 영향은 가계 현금흐름에 따라 차이가 난다고 설명했다. [고객 대응 전략] 9~10월 공포 구간을 매수 기회로 보고 신규 현금을 투입했으나, 인플레이션과 이스라엘 전쟁 등 변수로 여전히 신중하다고 했다. 전쟁 이후 에너지와 필수소비재 섹터가 크게 올랐다고 언급했다. [섹터 및 종목 관점] 방어적 입장으로 가치주, 유틸리티, 금융, 헬스케어를 선호하며 안정적 수익을 기대한다. 가장 크게 하락한 소형주에서 기회를 본다고 했으나 리스크 관리를 강조했다. 채권은 다시 소득원 역할을 하며, 연준이 내년에 금리를 인하하면 미리 채권 시장에 진입하는 것이 유리하다고 봤다. [기술주/AI] 기술주 비중은 유지한다. 변동성은 크지만 재무구조가 탄탄한 기업은 살아남을 것이며, 고레버리지 기업은 차환 부담으로 충격이 클 수 있어 종목 선별이 핵심이라고 했다.

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01. stocks gaining today on optimism the FED may be done raising rates treasury yields sliding on the news but JP Morgan chaso Jamie Diamond doesn't necessarily agree with that call Yahoo finance executive editor Brian sazy spoke with diamond last night I think they did the right thing to raise rates rapidly and I think they're kind of right to pause here a little bit and see what happens uh but I suspect that they may not be done I think there's a chance that inflation is just a little stickier than people think for more Market reaction we turn now to Nancy dud AER priz Financial private wealth advisor so Nancy let me get your take on this I mean you saw the fed's uh statement yesterday you I'm sure you listened to Jerome Powell's presser some investors perhaps deciding today hey you know the rate hiking campaign is over but meanwhile you know we just heard from JP Morgan Jamie Diamond he's not so sure what do you think yeah I don't disagree with him I think that all the hype and and the optimism is wonderful and it's great that the market is up uh they're even uh talking about this being a Santa Claus rally I don't think so we're a little bit a little bit early for all of that and I do believe that we may see at least one more rate hike but it will really all be very data dependent uh just as Mr Powell indicated Nancy what would justify another rate hike as you see it I mean the argument sort of going into the decision yesterday was that the market specifically the bond market has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the Fed so with rates where they are even though we've seen a pullback today why another hike well it all depends on the data I mean the jobs data will certainly be very important um the strength of the economy is uh beginning to show some sign of weakness even in corporate earnings uh but the jobs data report will be very important uh it it really has to do with what the data shows in the next few weeks uh that whether we will have another rate hike or not uh this year in November um but I wouldn't bet on uh no more rate hikes I I think there may very may very well be another one for the year uh and certainly no rate Cuts anytime soon which a lot of people have been talking about Nancy let's turn to the equity Market I'm just interested as we sit here now we're in November you think we are in for a year-end rally are you in that camp I know others you know Morgan s stle Michael Mike Wilson isn't expecting that says chances of fourth quarter rally have fallen considerably in his opinion what do you think well I think we're probably going to see a boost uh November December is is uh um those are the months where we see the the year end uh big hike in in uh the stock market and then I I would expect that that would happen although there's a lot of rumors that uh retailers are not indicating as such I I don't believe so I still think that there's a lot of cash out there and it really all depends on where you are in the food chain you know if your income uh far exceeds your outflow then your the effects of the inflation haven't hurt you as badly whereas if you have uh even cash flow or negative cash flow in your household the effects of inflation are definitely uh showing up at this point but um in general I I do believe that we will see a a good boost in in the market November December so how are you advising clients right now in terms of how they should be putting that cash to use with the expectation that there could be more upside in the next few months well we've we've been on the Forefront on this so during September and October when everybody was fearful and investor sentiment was going downhill uh that was the opportunity those were the opportunity months and then that's when we uh deployed new cash but certainly with a little bit of caution uh because we're still not out of the the woods with the uh fighting inflation and then also the new wild card here is the the war in Israel and how that will affect us and uh that certainly has affected two things uh Energy prices and Consumer Staples so those are sectors to look at and and have been the sector the two sectors that have been up significantly since October 7th uh when the war started uh so there are always current events that affect some of our thinking but um uh if you were in Forefront in this and and we're uh entering the market in September October you're feeling pretty good right now even though we're probably in for some more volatility but it should be a good it should have been a good move and in terms of sectors Nancy I see here you also like utilities how come what's the thes the thesis there well we're still very defensive so we look for value stocks you know utilities financials um and and the healthcare sector have been very steady uh and in in giving us the income that we need in order to offset the volatility and then as far as opportunity we always look for what has taken the biggest hit so I see opportunity in small cap stocks because they're down significantly have not performed as well as large cap um but with a great deal of caution and and uh risk appetite check uh and also bonds you know uh fixed income got it got its name back we actually have income and fixed income again and uh so if if indeed the FED will stop uh raising rates uh and and actually cut rates later in the year next year then you'd be very well positioned uh in the bond market if you start to begin to enter now so in terms of sectors going after those that have been underperforming what about some of those higher growth names we've been talking so much about tech and AI are you taking some money off the table in that area no I think we're holding steady uh because although there's a lot of volatility uh ultimately these these companies will do well and it's really like anything else if if the company has a good balance sheet good good cash Supply um they will weather all of the storms that are coming up however if uh they're highly leveraged or in fact have loans coming due that they have to refinance at a much higher rate then there will be some uh gyration or or Consequences to that so the key to all of this is Select ity you've got to be selective about which companies you're getting into as opposed to just across the board in the tech sector