저자: Yahoo Finance · 외국인
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애플은 4분기 매출 1,144.8억 달러로 예상치(1,134.7억 달러)를 웃돌았고, EPS 2.10달러와 아이폰 매출 575.8억 달러도 예상을 넘었다. 그러나 장외 주가는 약 1.2% 하락했다. 투자자들은 이번 분기보다 다음 분기 전망에 주목하고 있다. 이번 분기는 5년 만의 가장 큰 아이폰 업데이트 주기의 마지막 분기여서 이후 판매 압박이 우려된다. 메모리 가격 상승은 매출총이익률에 부담이 될 수 있으며, 중화권 매출 175.4억 달러는 예상(187.5억 달러)에 못 미쳤다. 이번 실적은 CEO 존 터너스의 첫 시험대다. 길 루리아(DA데이비슨)는 대규모 AI 투자 없이도 소비자 시장 중심 전략이 유효하다고 평가했다. 핵심은 교체 주기 이후 매출 성장과 마진 유지 여부다.
다듬은 글
Apple just released its fourth quarter results. Revenue was $114.48 billion. Analysts had expected $113.47 billion. So , this is better than the predictions. Earnings per share were $2.10. The expected figure was $2 per share. This is another figure above expectations. iPhone revenue also beat estimates, coming in at $57.58 billion versus the expected $56.49 billion.
Join us with Gil Luria from DA Davidson to break down these results in more detail. Well, at first glance, Wall Street isn't thrilled. Shares are trading down about 1.2% . When you look at these numbers, what catches your eye first? The quarter was still good. The concern is: what will happen next? What will happen next quarter for various reasons?
Because this is the last quarter of the iPhone update cycle, right? This was the largest update cycle in 5 years. iPhone 17 was a significant update cycle. The last one was the iPhone 12 . So this year, moving forward, there will be pressure to increase the number of units sold. The number of units may actually decrease.
Although they raised prices to compensate for this. Duo , which seems to be a success, will help with the average selling price. But there are concerns that it won't look good in the end for the next quarter. And that's what we'll be waiting for. We will wait to see what the forecasts and details of these forecasts will be.
How about whether they can achieve revenue growth after such a successful year? And will they be able to maintain margins next quarter? Because memory prices are starting to take a toll, because the memory chips they've been using for the last few quarters were purchased at a much lower price than they are now.
Therefore, gross margin will also be under pressure in the future, as will revenue growth. So, we will wait to see what the final predictions will be . But the quarter itself, a look back, looks good. It is this look into the future that investors will react very sensitively to, depending on what the company says.
Gil, this is a big first test for John Turnus, who, of course, became CEO. Already under his leadership, we have seen the release of a number of products, right? We saw the Duo you mentioned. We saw the line for the home. And there is a narrative around Ternus that, unlike Tim Cook, Ternus is an iron man.
He could seriously consider releasing more products, trying to expand the range, instead of simply continuing Tim Cook's iterative work related to services. What do you think about Apple's future in this context and the impact that Ternus' different approach could have? Yes, it's very timely and I think everything was carefully planned around Duo.
I believe the company knew Duo would be successful. They saw the design. They protested him. They conducted focus group testing. They chose a price that, oddly enough, even at $2,000, was probably on the lower end of what they were considering. So, they are setting him up for success. To make the big, first major launch of the equipment a success.
What will happen after this? What new form factors will we see, what iteration of Vision Pro, a new Mac with a touchscreen—we'll see. When Apple selected John Turnus as its next CEO for the next decade, they made a conscious decision: for the next 10 years, hardware would be the most important thing.
For Tim Cook, it was operational performance, phenomenal financial results. Now they were faced with a binary choice. Do we double down on software efforts? Are we taking a risk by betting on Apple as a major AI company? Are we going back to basics and expanding our hardware line, adding new form factors, and the decision to put John Turnus in this position was a reflection of that.
And the success of Duo, which we are about to hear about today, is a very good first step for him. However, one thing that could weigh on the stock during over-the-counter trading is revenue in Greater China for the quarter, which missed forecasts and came in at 17.54 billion. The forecast was 18.75 billion.
So, the figures are lower than expected by about a billion dollars. How should we evaluate this business sector , this business line for them, and what does China mean for them as a company? This is definitely their most challenging region as it used to be a very large part of revenue. Previously, it was more than 20% of income.
This fueled growth for several years, but in recent years has become a source of not only recession but also volatility. This market is so competitive and there are so many interventions that they have not only volatility but also a decline in results. So this became an obstacle to their business. Therefore, a disappointing result does not bode well for the future, because the reason for the lag may be the competitive situation.
This adds some anxiety. Gil, if you look back, say, nine months. Many investors have looked at Apple and asked why Tim Cook isn't investing a hundred or two hundred billion dollars in capital expenditures on AI, as we've seen with Amazon, Microsoft, or Alphabet. The last few months have seemed to reward the company somewhat for not pouring in crazy amounts of money and taking on huge debts for the sake of AI.
How should we evaluate this story going forward, is Apple that same exception in the classic “magnificent seven” that we always talk about? Yes, Apple definitely justified this decision. For several years, this seemed like a problematic solution, but later they completely proved themselves right. Just look at the multiple, at which they trade at a huge premium to earnings, at least compared to the rest of the large-cap tech stocks .
Those who invest hundreds of billions of dollars in land to build data centers and fund advanced laboratories with tens of billions to be at the forefront of progress. Apple's calculation has always been: let them worry about it. Consumers will still use AI through our devices. We will still get our percentage.
And sooner or later, Siri will become the same assistant, personal assistant, agent application, a preview of which we see in Muse right now. In the long run, we will use Siri the same way. Siri will operate on a different model— whether from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or another—but the consumer will interact with Siri to implement their requests through AI to have this personal assistant.
And the reason they are in such an advantageous position is their integration into their own native applications: messaging, mail, contacts, calendar. This is where their integration will always be better than third-party software. So in the long run, they are still in a good position. They will let everyone else compete with each other, burn through all the cash flow and even more, while Apple stays on the sidelines and ultimately chooses who it wants to work with.
You indirectly mentioned that Apple, in general, remained a consumer business. They are not chasing the huge corporate contracts that Alphabet or Microsoft are hunting for. Will this remain a significant differentiator for Apple as they push their AI story forward? Certainly. And that's because they occupy such a large share of the consumer market.
They don't have an absolute majority of shares, they have a large, very large share, but they get their main profit from consumer mobile devices. And to a large extent even from consumer computers. And they are doing well there. And they are satisfied with this market. They have some corporate business selling Macs.
They have some enterprise business that helps iPhones work in an enterprise environment, but why should they compete on equal terms with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google when they have a great business with a 46% gross margin in consumer technology with a huge protective barrier compared to other market participants?
They don't need it. They don't need to invest to compete in the corporate market . They are so good at meeting consumer needs. So let's get back to the present, Gil. With this protective barrier that you mentioned, with the differences that they have, what does John Turnus have to say to analysts and investors on this call to show that, you know, the ship is in calm waters, we're in safe hands and we know where we're headed ?
Now this is one of those neighborhoods where the detailed picture is not important. What matters is not the number of iPhones sold. The big picture is important. With all the controversial factors: comparison with a successful year for the iPhone, price increases, higher average selling price through Duo.
What is the conclusion of this? Will they be able to grow by high single digits next year? Can they have growing margins rather than shrinking due to higher memory prices ? In fact, it is revenue growth and gross margin that investors will be most focused on this quarter. If they can give us details on Duo or any part of the hardware roadmap, that would be helpful, but what people are really going to care about is the revenue growth trajectory after this cycle, and will they be able to sustain margins?
These will be two key points. Gil, thank you for your analysis of both of these companies. We always appreciate your time. Thank you.
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