저자: Yahoo Finance · 외국인
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방송 참가자들은 2028년 대선이 현재 시장 사이클과 충돌해 자본지출 버블을 터뜨릴 수 있다고 이야기한다. 한 명은 정치 자체는 중요하지 않다고 보는 반면, 다른 이는 정치가 확실히 중요하다고 반박한다. 발언자들은 AI 자본지출과 글로벌 안보를 핵심 변수로 꼽고, 노동 대 자본 비율이 역사적 극단에 이르렀다는 점을 짚는다. 1920년대 말과 2000년, 2008년의 사례를 근거로 정치적 전환기의 약세장 위험도 언급된다. 이후 대화는 헬스케어와 기술주의 섹터 전망, 중간선거 이후의 역사적 수익 패턴으로 이어진다. 한 참가자는 데이터센터 둔화와 반AI 입법 가능성을 주된 우려로 제시하며, 시장이 이 왼쪽 꼬리 리스크를 충분히 반영하지 않고 있다고 경고한다. 발언자들의 전망은 엇갈리며, 단정적 결론보다는 리스크 요인들을 나열하는 데 무게가 실려 있다.
다듬은 글
This market cycle. This market cycle will not survive the clash with the 2028 general election. I can guarantee you that . Interesting. We usually think that if you step back and look at stock charts over a very long period of time, the election becomes somewhat irrelevant. I can already see people hedging.
You know, people say, "Well, what if our regime changes?" I don't know if he'll change or not, but I noticed that the guys from "All-In" invited Rahm Emanuel to host election night with them. So , I tend to think that politics doesn't matter because the people at the top know how to adapt to the new regime, but I want to hear from you what I'm missing.
Well, politics doesn't matter unless you elect someone who starts a war with Iran, which causes oil prices to spike. Isn't that right? I mean ... It's like a hot stove. Well, I would say that elections may not matter, but politics certainly does. Yes. If that makes sense. Politics, yes. Monetary policy matters.
Regulatory policy matters. So why , why could approaching 2028 be the tipping point that causes the capital spending bubble to burst? Because, by the way, I agree with you 100%. For the last 2 months, I've been saying that only two things matter in this market right now : AI capex and global security.
Everything else is noise, and it's hard to get me to talk about anything else. So what do you see there? Yes, we do a huge amount of long-term cyclical and secular research at our company 42macro, and we are at a very historical extreme on the labor- capital ratio. The last time we reached this historical extreme...
It means that capital is taking more profits than labor. Yes, open the S&P margin chart, open the earnings chart, open the , you know, consumer price chart for the top segment of the K-shaped chart. Open a graph of everything we consume, and then open a graph of what people consume at the bottom of the graph.
And we are reaching historic extremes on many different metrics. So, if you think about it , the last time we reached this historical extreme was in the 1920s— early 1930s, before we saw significant redistributive policies, the New Deal. So we believe that if we continue to move down this path, which we obviously do.
What is the promise of AI? Obviously, we need less labor. If we continue on this path, it is likely that we will see a sharp shift towards significant redistributive policies. And one more thing I will say about this risk of a long-term bear market starting in 2028 : The last two times we had significant political uncertainty in this country ( i.e., a transition from the president we know and the state of the world we know to the unknown) were 2008 and 2000.
The Nasdaq fell by 80%, the S&P by 60%. And we will have the same dynamics in 2028. We'll have to turn off your microphone. By the way, I'm still optimistic. I wanted to say, Nancy, I can't retire in 2 years. I have at least another decade or two, so I better buy some Bitcoin. The funny thing is that there was no other transition like this.
And the market didn't crash. Yeah, yeah, that's fair, but I'm not sure we've had all the other dynamics around the credit cycle, concentration risk in the markets, you know, we think all the factors are better aligned now. God, I really wish we had that glass of wine right now, Nancy. See you after You know, I'll stay—I'll stay optimistic .
Yes. Mark, you watch everything in the stock market and have given me great advice over the years, what sectors are you targeting in the current environment? Actually, I know the answer because I read your work, but please share it with everyone . Look, I think it's really appropriate lately to increase the share of healthcare, probably more than in any other sector.
We have really started to overcome difficulties in many companies that have been affected by the drug price issue. I think healthcare has been under a lot of pressure over the last few years, and that changed quite dramatically this summer. So not only biotech companies, but also life sciences companies are really hitting multi-year highs, which they haven't done in a long time.
Well, you know, companies like Thermo Fisher Scientific, for example, or Waters, a lot in the pharmaceutical space, and we'll mention GLP -1 in a minute with Lilly. But, you know, honestly, healthcare still looks like the best area between now and probably the end of the year . And since I, you know, suspect that volatility is going to continue, the technology sector is a good time to buy on dips.
We haven't really seen enough evidence that the tech sector is truly declining. I know many people see 2026 as a huge roller coaster, and it is . Obviously, this rotation is really quite different from what we've seen for many years. But technology, you know, had its time in the sun, obviously from March to June.
We went up about 40% very quickly. He gave it back and then had another spurt from July to, you know, September. So this little, you know, mini- bear market in tech over the last 2 weeks is actually not that significant when you consider that the S&P 500 is up 4% for October. There are many things that do well in October, even though the tech sector doesn't.
So it's like a June- July period for the stock market where we're largely moving sideways, a little consolidation in technology, and I expect technology to come back up. And we've seen some evidence of that with AI infrastructure stocks in recent days, as well as, you know, different pieces of software, memory, semiconductors.
So everything will be fine with technology. And to touch on the previous component a little bit about cycles, I mean this is a very different cycle than what we saw in 2001 or 2008, in my opinion. Markets are usually supposed to, you know, consolidate during midterm election years. This is one of, what?
I think seven out of 19 times since 1950 the market has approached a midterm election with a return of 5% to 25%, and we know that after a midterm election, that's usually the best time of the entire 4-year cycle. That it was literally 19 out of 19 with an average gain of 15% in the next 6 months. And 18 out of 19 were positive.
So in the midst of all this sea of negativity for all the very good reasons, you know, it's really worth respecting this from a sentiment perspective. This is a pretty big positive. And if we go from a slight Republican lead in the House and Senate to a slight Democratic lead , it will still mostly mean a stalemate.
So, markets like a stalemate and this should push the market higher based on that. And my only personal fear is that we will see too much slowdown in data centers, which I think we can't afford, but that's just my personal opinion. But overall, you know, I think the market is still in a very good cycle.
I agree with the comment about 2028, but I think the market will likely peak then . And the period from 2028 to 2030 could be quite difficult. And we know that housing prices have largely doubled . We know that interest rates have doubled. It is very difficult to expect that supply will eventually catch up with demand.
Therefore, we should keep a close eye on real estate , unless rates start to drop very quickly. True. Nancy, I don't know if you can see, but Darius is raising his hand. Yes, that's what makes him such a good guy. No, no. This is My wife accusing me of being overly polite, like for a driver in New York.
Mark, you are obviously a super forecaster because you start with a baseline and then adjust it using the data. And I appreciate your analysis after the midterm elections. What worries me as a risk manager—and I'm not sure my forecast is better than anyone else's—is how little the market is factoring in the "left tail" risks that arise from this election.
And we're not just saying that, say, Democrats in the House and Senate are bad for AI. That's not what concerns us. We worry that if they perform well enough , it will force Republicans running for re-election in 2028, both at the state level and in Congress, to join the anti-AI sentiment. And if you have a nationwide slowdown in data center construction, the pace of capital expenditure and revenue projections will have to be lowered.
This is the biggest risk market I've seen in my career, with the least amount of downside hedging . So I'm talking about a Q4 2018-style scenario if things go wrong next Tuesday .
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