저자: TimUrbanowitz · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금리는 현 수준에서 장기간 머물 가능성이 크며, 장기금리는 연준 긴축 종료 무렵 고점을 형성할 것으로 본다. 제이미 다이먼 발언 평가: 다이먼이 금리 인상폭(25bp 등) 자체보다 고금리가 얼마나 오래 유지되는지가 중요하다고 말한 데 동의한다. 금리 인상 효과는 시차를 두고 경제에 반영된다. 현재 금리 수준: 10년물 국채금리가 5% 부근을 오가고 있고, 모기지 금리는 8% 수준이라 주택구입자와 소비자에 큰 부담이 된다. 그래서 제한적 수준이라고 판단한다. 장기금리 전망: 연준 긴축이 끝나면 장기금리(10년물)는 약 1개월 내 정점을 찍는 경향이 있다. 연준의 마지막 인상이 이미 나왔거나 이번 달 나올 것이라 보고, 장기금리 상승은 마무리 국면이라고 본다. 중동 리스크: 이스라엘 상황이 이란 등 다른 국가로 번지면 유가가 오르고 인플레이션을 자극해 연준이 금리를 더 올리게 할 수 있다. 1973년, 1990년 사례처럼 경기침체 중 금리 인상이 나올 위험이 있다. 빅테크 실적: 지수는 빅테크 실적이 이익 침체에서 끌어올려 줄 것을 기대하지만, 좋은 뉴스는 이미 주가에 상당 부분 반영되어 있다. 최근 빅테크 주가는 올해 강세였고 현금흐름도 양호하다. 실적보다 가이던스가 더 중요하다. 기업 이익 바닥: 과거 기업이익은 연준 긴축이 끝난 뒤 13~38개월 후에야 바닥을 쳤다. 따라서 현재는 거시 변수가 시장을 지배하는 국면이며 이익 개선은 내년 이후로 보인다. 의회 리스크: 공화당 하원의장 선출 등 워싱턴 정치 불확실성과 정부 셧다운 가능성을 우려한다. 올해 재정적자는 약 1.7조 달러로 채권 발행 수요가 크고, 연준과 해외투자자는 매수를 줄이고 있어 수급이 불균형하다. 이 때문에 금리 하단이 형성된다고 본다.
다듬은 글
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond is slamming central banks today at an event in Saudi Arabia he warned of the dangers of making forecasts on the economy saying the Fed was quote 100% dead wrong 18 months ago this comes as the next fed decision is just over a week away now joining us is Tim urbanowitz that's head of research investment strategy at innovator Capital Management so Tim thank you so much for joining us good to be with you joshh so let me let me start with Mr Diamond's comments because one thing that I thought was interesting at this speech to uh Tim is he seemed to just dismiss the impact of more rate hikes Tim at this conference he said I don't think it makes a piece of difference whether rates go up 25 basis points or more when you heard that Tim do you agree with do you agree with Jamie Diamond there yeah I I I think he spot on and and really what we've been saying for a long time now is less important than another 50 or 25 basis point hikes is really how long interest rates are going to need to stay at these rest restrictive levels because the reality of it is the longer that we stay where we're at right now the more damage that we're going to see play out in the economy we have to remember that you know interest rates hikes their their impact is lagged on the economy and right now we're kind of in that waiting ground where we really start to assess okay what type of damage has already been dealt and I think there's a very strong case right now that interest rates are restrictive um and even if you look at just the the backup that we've seen in longer dated yields we have the 10year keep flirting with 5% yeah you have mortgage rates that are right around 8% that's certainly going to really hamstring uh home buyers and and consumers alike so really now we're at this point where we need to wait and see uh what the damage looks like with those hikes but I think he's exactly right in that uh you know it's really about how long rates stay at this level do you think that you know however long rates stay at this level do you think that in the bond market in the treasury market that yields have sort of topped out is f around 5% the ceiling do you think well I think it really depends on on what the FED does if you if you look at some of our research that we've put out recently on this we tend to see that longer longer term rates like the 10-year treasury typically Peak within a month or so when the FED finishes that hiking cycle so we think there's a very strong case to be made that you you either saw the last hike or you're going to see the last hike here this month um so we would anticipate that we're kind of coming to the end of longer term interest rates moving higher with that I will say that I think the situation uh in Israel right now does put a little bit of a caveat to that you know if we see that situation spread out you start to see other countries get involved like Iran where you start to see a big impact on Energy prices oil prices moving higher the reality of it is that's inflationary in nature and if we see that that might really limit what the fed can do and even May force them to take rates even higher to combat any of those forces you it's a situation that we saw back in you know 1973 and 1990 in 1973 in particular when you saw you know that situation playing out you had the FED that actually had to hike in the middle of a recession um so we don't want to see a situation like that play out and that certainly remains a threat to that uh to that view and and Tim I want to switch GE a bit you know we got big Tech earnings after the Bell Microsoft alphabet you know I was talk to Julie Tim we've had guests come on at least more bullish ones and they were really pinning their hopes on this earning season they really thought you know listen this could be a catalyst to move this Market higher what are you expecting to hear from Big Tech Tim well I think the entire index is counting on you know these names to really lift us out of this earnings recession that we've been in there's a lot of good news priced in so we need to see these these companies deliver but at the end of the day I think we need to back up and remember that that right now we're we're really in a macro driven Market where a lot of the new news that you're going to see coming out is going to take a backseat to a lot of the economic data inflation data the data coming out of of the labor market because the reality of it is what we have seen historically is that interest rate hikes impact earnings with about a two-year lag which means we're really starting to get into that cycle now where you start to see that impact and one of the things that we've looked at is really when to earnings bottom and very consistently one thing that we have noticed is that earnings never have bottomed before the FED finishes its hike cycle in fact they typically bottom out anywhere from 13 to 38 months after the FED is done so regardless of what we see right now again we're in a macro driven market and it's really about what's going to be coming uh through the pipeline next year so you don't think T then Tim that that Tech earnings are going to sort of dominate here and help pull the market up and by and by the way you know for all the talk of of high yields being problematic for big Tech most most of these stocks have done well this year yeah they they've done very well you know they have very strong cash flows which is which is very encouraging overall um but again reality is it's going to be more about guidance than it is results um so that's what we need to focus on and again if we if we see the impact that we've seen historically we don't know what that looks like yet so we're coming to the point where that's going to be the case here very soon and Tim we've hit a lot of topics today but I want to end here with you know more headlines from Congress they keep now we learn that Republicans narrowly chose House Majority with Tom emmer as their nominee for speaker how worried if it all Tim do you think investors need to be about this continuing drama in Washington especially as we get closer and closer to this potential government shutdown yeah I think it's an issue we've been really looking at all year and and really a a big question comes down to where interest rates going to I think if you looked at the debt ceiling scare earlier in the year there was a lot of question marks of you know is is the debt still reli viable is it still credit Worthy is is that still the same um you know and seeing these continued issues is is certainly concerning what's also concerning however is if you look at the imbalance in the budget that we' seen you we just wrapped up the fiscal year with about a $ 1.7 trillion deficit that's very very significant there's a lot of bonds that need to be issued you know to to to meet those those spending needs and this is coming at a time where the FED is stepping back uh we have foreign investors that are stepping back so in addition to the FED holding rates higher for longer in our view a lot of this drama really points to uh really a floor under interest rates as well as as that supply and demand is a little bit out of balance Tim urbanowitz thank you so much for joining us really appreciate it great to be with you
Comments 0