저자: TheContrarian채널진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2021년 3분기 13F 보고서를 분석하며 그가 대부분의 포지션을 청산하고 현금 비중을 크게 늘렸다고 설명한다. 포트폴리오 변화: 신규 편입은 록히드마틴(약 25%), 디스트리뷰션나우(약 3%), 스카이뉴클리어스(약 2%) 3종목이며, CVS가 약 41%로 최대 비중이다. GEO그룹은 53%, CoreCivic은 68% 축소했다. 전면 매도 종목: 썬코크에너지, 구글, ARK 풋옵션, 맥케슨, 월마트, 디스커버리, 테슬라 풋, 페이스북 콜, 크래프트하인즈, 카디널헬스 등. 옵션 만기 영향도 있을 수 있다고 봤다. 진행자의 해석: 버리는 현재 시장을 극단적 버블로 보고 있으며, 과거 옵션 포지션(금리 상승 베팅)의 타이밍이 어긋났을 가능성을 언급했다. 가능한 이유로 ① 큰 수익 이후 전략 재평가 ② 하락장 대비 현금 확보 ③ 리스크 대비 보상이 부족하다는 판단을 제시했다. 중국 헝다 사태와 부동산 시장 급락이 매도의 촉매였을 수 있다고 추정했으며, 4분기 보고서로 시장 시각 변화를 확인해야 한다고 결론지었다. 과거 13F 분석 영상으로 향후 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello everybody welcome back to the contrarian it is that time of year again and it's time to start digging into 13f filings as they come out and specifically today i will be diving into michael bury's 13f filing for the third quarter of 2021 for his hedge fund which is scion asset management and it's important to realize before i go into this report that this is in retrospect it's during essentially a beginning of july through end of september so third quarter of 2021 this is essentially a snapshot of what brewery's portfolio was like basically the end of september and what changes he made in the third quarter it does not give us a position of where he is right now but it can give us some clues as to you know how his mindset has changed in the last uh five months or so since i last talked about his uh second quarter 13f filing and the these changes are significant he basically sold out of most of his positions out there and is heavily in cash right now so this is a very significant filing for me to dig into just trying to get an idea as to what michael bury's thinking might be in terms of what he is likely forecasting might happen in the near-term future in the economy without further ado i will dive into this report essentially he only added three new positions with lockheed martin with uh distribution now and then with sky nexus which i did not know what that company was before it's essentially a small cap healthcare stock but those are the only new positions he added he maintained a cvs position which is by far his largest position right now almost 41 he added lockheed martin which is around 25 percent he uh you know he trimmed his geo group position down some 53 percent and that's still you know 21 percent of his portfolio in the stock market uh course civic he trimmed 68 and that's now about nine percent of his positions and then distribution now he added that it's almost three percent and then sky nexus is about two percent of his portfolio and this is only his portfolio looking at that which is still in the market it's definitely not including his cash position which is definitely increased because looking at all of the positions he sold out of it's very very large basically despite trimming geo group and course civic he essentially sold everything out a hundred percent uh with the remaining positions so he sold out of sun coke energy google uh which recalls uh surprisingly he sold out of puts on ark's investment etf he sold out of a mckennis and walmart which are both calls as well as discovery also surprisingly he sold out of his tesla put positions which i will talk about that in ark later he sold out of his facebook call position that he held a craft heinz call cvs call uh he sold out of his voyager just kind of a investment finance type company he sold out of his cardinal health on his tlt hood he sold out of his um yeah tbt calls so essentially he sold out of quite a bit a lot of this could have to do with simply option expirations um but specifically talking about arc invest and tesla um michael bury might have broken even with those positions it's a little hard to tell just in terms of within that period of time there was a lot of volatility it is a little strange as to why he waited until the third quarter to get out of those positions just because specifically with tesla tesla stock was down you know lower in the second quarter than where it was in the third quarter and since then tesla has really rallied significantly and is back uh close to all-time highs but is definitely selling off now in light of elon musk essentially dumping a lot of his shares out there but essentially what i'll try to get into now is what is michael bury thinking and um we do have some hints he's obviously tweeted uh substantially in the past about the current bubble that he sees going on and he's been very uh explicit in terms of describing this as the most extreme bubble of all three of the ones that he's been a part of this is a recent tweet just a few days ago for what it's worth i've never shorted any cryptocurrency uh this is my third bubble and the biggest i've learned a thing or two a 30-year treasuries on the other hand have not um and so that could have something to do with him selling out of his bets on rates rising um which probably didn't play out very well for him just in terms of where he entered that position and um where he exited that position it probably didn't work out too well for him just in terms of the specific timing on those call and put options which timing is key with options that's really the big downside of options is you have to get the timing correct you can't just be in the right place you have to also be in in it at the right time and so that's a real challenge with options so these are just a few of my thoughts as to why michael brewery could have sold out of all these positions setting aside all of his statements on the whole you know mania that is going on in the market right now first reason he could be reassessing his portfolio essentially his portfolio has grown immensely in the last year this is mostly due to a lot of his positions working out extremely well uh specifically gamestop and a lot of the energy stocks that he's been in as well as a lot of the call and put options he's he's purchased in the last year michael brewery has really been on a roll in terms of outperforming the market just looking at a chart which i will throw up his fund cyan asset management has greatly outperformed the s p 500 in the last year obviously it has not always been the case but in the last year he's really been killing it so this could essentially be michael bury almost stepping back a little trying to reassess what his macro sort of strategy could be going forward and then going forward with a new sort of strategy so it could be sort of a a pause in terms of him actually being very active in the market the second thought of mine is this could be michael brewery sitting on a substantial cash position essentially this would be in line with his bet that this is an extreme bubble right now and that the markets would experience a significant bear market in the near-term future so if you do think such a thing is very likely sitting on a large pile of cash would be a great position to be in in terms of then you would be in a very good position to scoop up a lot of deals when you see them uh whenever the market does begin to bottom so this is a second thought of mine in terms of why michael brewery might be very cautious right now now a third thought of mine in terms of michael bury's current positioning could simply be that of his risk reward benefit assessment right now so he could essentially be looking out there in the market and seeing all the extreme hysteria and fear missing out that is going on in terms of cryptocurrencies in terms of meme stocks and everything like that uh he could just essentially be sitting back and saying you know i don't see enough benefit to take that kind of risk and this is obviously completely up to bury himself he needs to kind of be the judge of how much risk he's willing to take for himself and his clients but this is probably the third option that i would put in michael bury's portfolio assessment in that he's probably just essentially done a risk reward analysis of the markets out there and he really doesn't see many things of value that he could purchase in this kind of a market so these are my thoughts on michael breese updated portfolio he did sell out of a lot of positions i was not really expecting it to be this dramatic but a lot of this could be due to a lot of the um news headlines that we saw during september with regards to evergrand and china and the whole real estate market meltdown that you know started back there in september and is still escalating today so a lot of this could be michael bury's initial reaction to the evergrand story and the story of the slowing of the economy in china obviously we will really have to look at his fourth quarter assessment three months from now and we'll really be able to see how he changed his uh market view from where it currently was back in the end of the third quarter but this was a big adjustment for michael bury just uh comparing the second quarter where he was to the third quarter it was a really really big change he sold out of most of his positions and uh it was just a big shock for me but all of this being said let me know what you guys think about this down in the comments if you like this video just consider subscribing to this channel and i hope to see you again at some point
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