저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 데이터센터 수요 확대로 엔비디아 실적 성장세가 이어진다는 주장. 공급사(메모리·TSMC) 증설 및 하이퍼스케일러 대규모 capex를 근거로 제시. 기업(엔터프라이즈) 수요는 아직 실험 단계라 시간이 걸리나 현재 수요는 강함. 뉴스트리트의 중립 하향에 반박하며 목표가 $200, 4조달러 시총 도달 전망. 블랙웰 칩 수요가 공급을 초과하고 2025년까지 지속될 것이라며, 8월 2분기 실적과 블랙웰 출시를 촉매로 봄.
다듬은 글
we we've been really calling the the acceleration the inflection in data center AI spanning for NVIDIA for the last 18 months we really coped you know like the transformation chat GPT was creating in the market and since then we've really developed an expertise at looking what's happening at every single step of the value chain so we look at Manu memory manufacturers uh cheap manufacturers we look at Nvidia we look at Nvidia clients and we comp compare what we hear from all these steps in in in the supply chain to try and figure out whether Nvidia is expectations or Nvidia are like behind what we think is going to happen or ahead of it and what we realized um this week is that when you listen to memory manufacturers they're telling you we're going to double capacity next year when you listen to tsmc about Coos capacity the packaging technology used for these chips it's going to double next year and we compare that to where expectation stands for NVA today expectations have gone up a lot in the last three weeks by 20% we are like oh expectations are actually healthy they they reflect what's happening and then we look at what clients of Nvidia are saying which is we're going to build a100 billion dollar AI cluster at Microsoft we are building a million chip cluster at Google a 300,000 chip at Tesla Etc and we add up all these data points and we compare that to what is in expectations and and we see a picture that for the first time makes sense so for the first time we think Nvidia might not exceed expectations and so my job is really to to give an advanc warning to my clients uh on that kind of situation so that's what we see and we felt we had to publish it today that was New Street research's Pierre fagu talking about why he downgraded Nvidia stock from buy to neutral many investors thought that this take was extremely controversial and Nvidia stock even dipped after the news even though many analysts on Wall Street are still bullish with 37 out of 41 analysts covering the stock in the past 3 months giving it a strong bu rating faru believes that there's no more room for upside but the renowned Tech analyst Dan IES made it clear that he disagrees with him so in today's video we're going to walk you through the opinions of both analysts so you can decide if now is the time to buy more Nvidia shares or if the stock has peaked and won't be seeing any more upside the story that we've known for the better part of two or three years now remains true and that's that those stocks mostly have better growth profiles on the top the middle the bottom line across the board they just are better performing companies than the rest of the index and so they warrant higher valuations and by extension they've done quite well this year but I I wouldn't read anything uh in terms of uh any economic signals out of it I think it's just again those companies are just acting and Performing incredibly well recently new Street resarch downgraded Nvidia from buy to neutral with a $135 price Target and while this price Target is still above where Nvidia stock is currently trading and reflects an upside it's still nowhere near as bullish as Dan ies's Nvidia price target of $200 according to new Street's analysis GPU revenues will see a robust 35% increase by 2025 and this aligns closely with the firm's earlier forecasts leading into earnings but the firm still emphasized that there's Limited potential for more upside citing insights gathered from the industry value chain and this is why the firm downgraded the stock analyst Pierre fagu also added that significant additional gains would depend on a bullish scenario where post 2025 prospects notably improve but this is something that the firm currently finds uncertain for Nvidia stock investors as well as potential investors who are interested in buying Nvidia shares it's important to look at the bull case and the bear case so they can decide how they feel about the stock and now that we've heard a bearish opinion let's take a look at why Dan IES disagrees with faru and thinks that there's still more room for the stock to run we're still early how early explain I mean to people who say you know how can that possibly be true now you're starting to see the the Articles trickle out oh AI might not be that transformative oh you know talk about why uh this stock can still have more room to run yeah yeah you you bet so so people get nervous and I get it don't don't get me wrong I mean that the the stock and not not just stock but the the numbers have run so so far so quickly that people do worry about sustainability and I understand that but at the same time you can sort of look at where the the shares are trading on a valuation basis they're much cheaper than they were before this started um as much as the stock has gone up like the the the demand for the parts and and the impact on the financials has gone up even even more even more um it's it's been really amazing um we are at the point now we're seeing like massive amounts of capex from from the hyperscale players which I think is good I think where people get nervous is on the Enterprise side we are still in the experimentation phase and this this is true like like Enterprises tend to move slower um but I do like the amount of bread that we are seeing here there are many many Enterprises that actually are experimenting here Nvidia talked about this I think they talked about like large Cloud vendors were only about 40 or 45% some of their total revenues there their their customer base is still broadening out um we are seeing more and more um uh deployments as business models are getting built um on the Enterprise side but it does take time like the hyperscalers can build up very quickly the Enterprises you know take a little longer and I kind of get that nervousness but at the same time everything we're seeing right now at least in terms of near medium-term demand still seems really really strong it doesn't look like we're seeing any signs of slowdowns yet Dan Ives has always been vocal about his bullishness on Nvidia stock and he thinks that the company will reach a four trillion doll market cap very soon the analyst isn't at all worried about Nvidia stock dropping saying that it's just a near-term pullback he also praised nvidia's CEO Jensen hang and said that he's one of the most prominent figures in the entire AI industry he also said that every dollar spent on the company's chips generates $8 to $10 in the rest of the sector which showcases the important role that Nvidia plays Dan Ives isn't the only Wall Street analyst that still bull on the company despite the recent pullbacks in fact 21 of the 38 analysts surveyed by LSG this month still recommend Nvidia as a buy or strong buy and this comes after some massive gains as well as the stock has soared more than 150% year-to date and the firm has a market cap of $3 trillion so which analysts are right here the ones who say that the stock has peaked or the ones who predict more upside let's take a look at what's coming up next for NVIDIA and Nvidia stock to the market cap is 3.15 trillion and when we did our segment a little while ago on the race to four trillion I think it was giloria made the point you can't have both out uh Microsoft and Nvidia reach $4 trillion at the same time because his his line was basically Microsoft can't afford for NVIDIA to be that necessary and if Nvidia is going to be that large then Microsoft's margins will be destroyed and its profitability will be called into question I don't know about destroyed you have to remember a lot of the the capex that's going on right now is not necessarily all incremental like you can go look at sort of spending on traditional data centers CPUs and traditional servers networking they they're all in the toilet right now right I mean so there's been a pivoting of spend for more traditional things to gpus um some of this GPU capacity as well is fungible like these these Cloud venders can use it for their existing needs as well not all of it is generative AI some of it is things like recommendation engines from players like meta like other like more traditional more Legacy types of machine learning where there's already a clear return on on that all um and you can sort of run through the math like if if the returns take a little longer I mean it doesn't impact their margin all that much it's a a colleague of mine who covers Microsoft he did some of this work it's a few hundred basis points I think on margins given the incremental depreciation load it's it's not crazy the amount of money that they're spending at this point it's it's it's not like they go down the toilet um if this if this doesn't come down I kind of disagree I push back on that a little bit we think that it's very likely for Nvidia stock to go up again and that's thanks to multiple catalysts that Nvidia has coming up for one if nvidia's GPU sales of its new Blackwell chips are super high the stock will definitely go up and it's extremely reasonable to assume that this will happen as Nvidia has already indicated that the demand for these new Blackwell gpus is greater than Supply a situation that could continue well into 2025 this leads us to our next point which is the Blackwell gpu's gross margins it's safe to say that they're going to be extremely impressive as Blackwell's total cost of ownership is 25 times lower than its Hopper predecessors and it also has a much lower energy consumption also if the Blackwell platform turns out to be a huge success then investors will become really excited about the potential gains that the company's upcoming reuin platform will offer which could lead to more people buying Nvidia shares and boosting the stock price many tech industry experts are expecting Nvidia to be the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap and this will be driven by the seemingly unending demand for its AI chips even Dan Ives believes that Nvidia will be the first company to hit that Mark and said in an interview that the company's gpus are the new oil or gold in the tech world with no real competition but considering the Stock's explosive growth over the past few years many analysts are now saying that the company's valuation is now very high and doesn't account for Rising competition in the semiconductor Market despite this Ives pointed out that while nvidia's shares have surged its revenues and earnings have followed suit in its most recent quarter the company reported a record $26 billion in revenues and $14.8 billion in net income a stark difference from 2021s 5.8 billion in revenues and net income of $1.9 billion for the same quarter Louie naler founder and chairman of family office navier and associates also brushed off the competition argument saying that Nvidia essentially has a monopoly on AI chips which will lead to consistent sales and earnings growth for years to come he also added that like Elon Musk Nvidia CEO Jensen hang has got kind of a cult status which will continue to drive retail investors towards the stock Additionally the AI Market is still in the early days of its growth story with analysts forecasting that today's $200 billion AI market May surpass one trillion by the end of the decade this is incredible news for NVIDIA as the company sells the world's top performing gpus which power some of the most crucial AI tasks like training and inferencing with all of this in mind we think that Nvidia stock is still a great buy for long-term growth investors and the current dip only serves as a buying opportunity before upcoming catalysts like the Q2 earnings in August and the upcoming release of the Blackwell chips
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