저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Tesla는 분기 인도량 개선과 가격 인하 효과로 수요가 안정되고 중국 역풍이 순풍으로 바뀌고 있어 Q2가 전환점이라는 주장. AI·FSD와 로보택시가 핵심 가치로, 로보택시 데이 이후 대중형 모델(2.8~3만 달러대) 발표가 볼륨 성장의 열쇠라고 봄. Dan Ives는 Tesla AI 사업 가치를 1조 달러로 보고 목표가 300달러, 내년 400달러를 제시. 다만 로보택시의 실질 재무 기여는 장기적이라는 점은 인정.
다듬은 글
clearly look it's been a tough six to nine months 2 Q I think is the Turning Point not just from a delivery perspective but now going into his historic Robo taxi day in autonomous I believe the AI story alone is worth a trillion dollars potentially a Tessa you know Dan Robo taxi it's it's great to see you it's Josh um I I get the excitement there Dan but that is a you know that's a long-term play right it would be a while before you would expect to see kind of you know meaningful Financial contribution from that right yeah look Josh I think in the next 18 to 24 months we'll have some form of supervised Robo taxi in certain cities in my opinion I think given where China is going on FSD autonomous I think the technolog is getting closer and closer to to something that when you look at the longer term Tesla story I've never viewed as an auto compy disruptive TCH despite some of the issues they've been through from a demand perspective but take a step back you're going to have six seven eight million cars in the road Teslas that are now going to have that autonomous FSD and I think it's very important to understand far as to the trees this is essentially an AI robotics disruptive play but yet the Bears in their hibernation caves will continue to say it's a car company wed Bush Securities Dan I just made some stunning comments on Tesla and Tesla stock reiterating that Tesla's AI story on its own is worth a staggering $1 trillion notably ives's comments came after the EV leader reported better than expected deliveries in Q2 sending its stock 30% higher IES also raised his price Target on Tesla stock to $300 from $275 and said that he even sees the stock going to $400 next year and it's not just Dan IES who's really bullish on the automaker as steel analyst Steven Jingo who covers the EV sector recently picked Tesla stock as one of the best EV stocks to buy in the current environment in today's video we're going to talk about these analysts opinions as well as why Tesla stock is a no-brainer buy before the company's upcoming earnings and Robo taxi da in cataly li one of the big issues though for Tesla over the last several quarters has been the cars and demand and what they need to do in order to Spur that demand I I guess has that part of the equation has that part of the story changed at all or are we starting to see or do you think we're going to see a real pickup in EV demand and what's driving that yeah I think the price Cuts 98% of that is in the rear of VI mirror so I think we've started to turn the corner there from a price C perspective demand stabilize China headwind now that becomes a Tailwind I think numbers go higher in the street and I think you start to now see it's not just about the robotack a day and the start of that Vision but I think Now growth returns to the Tesla story and even though they've been on the outside looking in of that mag seven party I think they start to get back on the dance floor and yeah what about the the lower price models on the way uh what do you think the price is how excited do you think investors should be about that yeah Josh I think that's going to be key to from a volume perspective I think 28,000 to 30k is sort of where we see that I think they'll give some hint of that on August 8th but that's key of the volume game playing out in Tesla in terms of the broader volume then it's the software and then ultimately it's really the autonomous FSD that's the some of the parts to how you start to get to that bull case $400 d one of the near-term catalysts that you laid out there is Robo taxi day and I guess I'm curious what does Tesla need to announce or what do you expect Tesla to announce to have this historical moment as you put it well I think it's really showing the technology I mean this is because ultimately the car in the stick here is there's Uber do they partner in other words like down the road is this something where 5 10% of uber are actually using autonomous FSD Dan do you think I think it's very likely and I think it's something where in the next three to five years I could see Josh in New Jersey getting into an autonomous Uber with no driver Dan Ives believes that Q2 will be a turning point for Tesla and steel analyst Steven Jingo seems to agree with him in a recent note the analyst said that Tesla is very well positioned to deliver robust multi-year growth from the year 2024 to 2027 he noted that in the near- term the revamped model 3 and upcoming model y refresh should bolster sales followed by the commencement of model 2 production that likely Garners very strong demand in addition Tesla's FSD has the potential to generate significant value through both sales of the software possible licensing agreements and as a critical part of longer-term robotaxi initiatives according to the analyst these comments support jinger's bu rating on Tesla and his bullish $265 price Target I find myself agreeing with the two analysts here as Tesla is currently disrupting the entire automotive industry and the upcoming Robo taxi day will literally change everything about the company according to Fortune business insights the global market for autonomous vehicles is set to grow to a $13 trillion valuation by 2030 so if you think that Tesla stocks recent jump was insane just wait for its move after the robo taxi unveil it could actually go to 300 $100 with this in mind let's talk about why Dan IES thinks Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market right now hey near-term Dan also though more near term July 23rd uh Q2 results for Tesla what do you expect there Dan what are the metrics you're going to be making a beine for I think the profitability metrics are going to surprise on the upside I think if you look at the storage the software pie higher margin that's significant along with some of those tough Cuts they've had to make in terms of cost cutting profitability preserved you now start to see a Resurgence from a from a cash flow and ebit perspective I think that's also why the stocks rallying here is that it was sen and we talked about the last three months sentiment so negative unless you thought there was something structurally wrong with the story I think the stock was just due to go higher and now many of those Bears I've talked about 100 now I think you know we're we're going toward 250300 on that on that earnings call though D do you also want to hear more about how business is going in China more color and commentary there well China is the hearts and lungs of the Tesla store and that's also why musk has made some of those trips to Beijing because that really went from a headwind to a talent now I think we're starting to see a mini Rebound in China That's significant in terms terms of the broader bullish Tesla story Tesla doesn't go higher without China growth coming back and I think it's started Dan IES believes that when you consider Tesla's FSD and autonomy you'd realize that the company is the most undervalued AI play in the market and he said that when he appeared as a guest on Bloomberg Radio we have to agree with IES here as FSD is a truly gamechanging software that'll definitely end up saving many lives in fact according to a recent report from Tesla the company noted a significantly lower number of crashes with FSD engaged in 2023 than in 2022 the company reports that the number of vehicular accidents per million miles driven with FSD engaged amounted to 0.21 in 2023 that's a 32% improvement over 0.31 in 2022 Ives also said that Tesla's upcoming Robo taxi day will be historical for the company and we have to agree with him here in fact Arc invest predicts that Robo taxis will account for 90% of Tesla's business in the future once the company has a fully functioning Network and in addition to autonomous vehicles Tesla is also in the midst of getting its humanoid robot Optimus ready for the mass market and this is expected to happen in 2025 but while these new technologies aren't ready to get out there on a large commercial scale just yet investors should keep in mind that Tesla has made some notable progress for example Optimus is already being used in Tesla factories showcasing its potential to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs across all kinds of Industries so with all of this in mind is now the time to buy Tesla stock hat about the pressure though from domestic players there just in terms of the competition the fact that they are able to offer these vehicles at a fraction of the price is that going to be something that's going to hold back some of Tesla's growth yeah look that's going to continue to be that Game of Thrones battle that Tesla sees domestically in China byd Neo xping and others but it's not a zero some game I mean I believe byd will be a winner just like I think Tessa is a winner I think tessla has a global winner but the gold at the end of the rainbow it is autonomous FSD like if you're if you're playing Tesla here you're playing for the broader Vision but I would just say look everyone viewed Nvidia is just as a chip company a few years ago apple is just a smartphone player four or five years ago Microsoft is just a software player look where we are today that's why in this AI party we believe it's only 9900 p.m.
in a party that goes to 4: a.m. and Tesla will be a part of that right now there is one EV Trend that all Tesla investors should be aware of and that is that the EV Market continues to grow even if growth rates keep fluctuating for example last year EV sales in the US jumped 60% from 1 million in 2022 to 1.6 million in 2023 and to put that into perspective in 2016 only 200,000 EVS were sold in the country that's eight times less than the number sold annually today we can't deny that gasoline vehicles continue to dominate as they account for 75% of total vehicle sales in the US but so far in 2024 EV sales continue to increase both in the country and in the entire world in fact the global EV Market is projected to grow to $1.5 trillion in 2030 exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% from 2023 to 2030 so being an EV leader both in the US and globally Tesla stock might be the safest bet out there if you want to capitalize on this growing industry keep in mind that Tesla is the only American EV company that actually makes a profit selling its vehicles in q1 Tesla reported Topline revenue of $21.3 billion missing forecasts by $950 million and declining 8.5% year-over-year meanwhile at the bottom line Tesla reported a 45 Cent non-gaap EPS profit 5 cents per share less than than had been expected these misses reflected a difficult sales environment for EVS but as the market normalizes and Tesla releases its more affordable models over the next few years the company's Revenue will definitely increase and in turn its stock pric
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