저자: BrentPhilJeff · 외국인
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AI 인프라(반도체) 중심 랠리 이후 하반기에는 소프트웨어 섹터가 상대적 강세를 보일 것으로 전망. AI는 초기 단계이며 현재 인프라 투자가 주도하고 소프트웨어 실제 수익화는 2024말~2025로 예상. 애플·마이크로소프트의 AI 수익화 관건 제기. 시장은 아직 낙관 유지, 실적 쇼크 가능성 낮다고 봄. 팔란티어 등 AI 소프트웨어 강세 논의(우호적 분석 인용).
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Brent Phil Jeff Tech research analyst joins us now Brent uh that seems to be the question of the morning as everyone is assessing the prospects for the second half what's your take I think Tech can continue its rally we've had a massive underperformance in software so we do believe uh that software can pick up the pace uh semis in infrastructure have been leading the charge so we look for a more weighted uh software rally in the back half of this year it's massively underperformed semis up close to 50 software up seven so we do believe uh Year date we believe that software can have a better rally as we go into the seasonally stronger second half as well as uh we look at 25 numbers uh so it's been a challenging front half for our our core coverage but we think that that will change in the back half uh we do think it's super early in Ai and so we think we're in really early Innings uh we're we're in what we call an AI picks and shovels we're we're buying the uh core infrastructure to get these data centers up the software really is not there yet 95% of AI deployments or what we call poc's or proof of Concepts those have to flip to live in installations and get the full value and and as that happens we think uh companies like Microsoft are a great shape with our co-pilot strategy in the back half Amazon uh will also benefit in a big way in the back half others like snowflake elastic uh who are riding this AI wave as well will benefit as we go uh into what what again is largely fueled by infrastructure and then as we call it the applications or the software which is the art that's going to get hung inside the house we're building the frames of the house right now we don't have any of the artwork uh that will will happen late 24 into 20125 the market leader for AI chips Nvidia was down more than 10% last week as investors started taking profits after a huge run that took the stock to around $140 per share now analysts are expecting this to continue and saying that investors should shift from companies that provide AI Hardware to companies that provide AI software when we say AI software you might think of companies like Microsoft or alphabet but one major AI software player that all investors should be paying attention to is paler Technologies whom wedbush Securities Dan IES called the purest AI play out there Ives isn't the only one betting big on palente tier as invests CEO Cathy wood recently doubled down on paler stock after selling Tesla shares which was surprising to many in today's video we're going to talk about the possible motive Behind Woods trades as well as where paler will be in 5 years so you can decide for yourself if this AI software stock is worth buying but before we do that if you want to keep up with palente Market's a rotation out of the AI trade today Micron leading the semis lower after its earnings report last night taking the other chip stocks with it Nvidia down over 2% Qualcomm and broadcom following suit as investors left the red hot sector where do they go well maybe surprisingly they didn't flee Tech entirely looks like software names like Palo Alto paler Salesforce and more all posting strong gains what does this rotation within this Tech sector tell you I mean presumably it was always all the spend is going there to Ai and so therefore it's going to be pulled from software and SAS and so we just have a reversion here well I'll just say this in the last couple weeks since WWDC you know Apple has been a huge beneficiary the stock went from 192 to about 2115 and when you think about that I thought that was pretty bearish whatever the excitement was about Apple is that they weren't spending billions and billions of dollars on highend gpus to build their own models and then they were going to get into they've been actually licensing or they're going to be licensing a lot of other folks and when you think about that okay what are the use cases right now and they're not very clear you know I mean to me the monetization efforts and there was an article in the information today I thought was really interesting said in a surprise open AI is selling more of its AI models than Microsoft is so when Microsoft reports in in a month from now if they're not giving the goods if they're not saying that all of this investment $13 billion in open Ai and you know like the budget shift that they've had right towards selling these sorts of products and what it means for their Enterprise customers I think the whole trade I think a lot of error comes out of it to be very Frank and it won't be too different than what we saw from Late July to October of last year you know the S&P sold off about 11% the NASDAQ a bit more stocks like Microsoft were down uh High Teens you know what I mean from those highs so again I think it's obviously a bit more severe now because there's been so much appreciation Microsoft's up 47 % from its October lows you just do the math on a $3 trillion market cap company it's pulled forward a lot of excitement about what they may do how they may monetize these Investments Kathy Wood recently bought 37,5 shares of paler worth $957,000 78 and this came after Ark invest reduced its share in Tesla across two of its ETFs The Arc Innovation ETF and the Ark Next Generation internet ETF notably just a day earlier wood picked up paler shares worth $516 million the Tesla transaction was valued at $14.5 million and came as a surprise to many investors as wood is one of Tesla's biggest Bulls on Wall Street in fact she even predicts that the stock will go to $2,600 in the next 5 years but this trade isn't too shocking when you learn that Tesla shares jumped by more than 10% after the company Beat Q2 delivery estimates so wood probably wanted to take some profits remember Tesla is still ark's largest holding as Woods ETFs combined own shares worth more than 700 million this however doesn't take away from the fact that she's extremely bullish on Palante tier and she even said that she sees it competing with the tech giant Microsoft when it comes to AI software it also might be a sign that wood is recognizing the shift from AI Hardware to AI software as she recently sold Nvidia shares worth $4.3 million but should investors follow suit and buy paler shares let's take a look at the company and the recent news surrounding it to find out hello everyone and welcome back to invest ocracy I mean looking on the surface not a lot to complain about you know 5,500 on the S&P the vix is now below 12 as it's trading right now uh the macro seems quiet enough for stocks to kind of rotate and do their thing um is there anything you would look at and say we're we're we're missing something here The Market maybe is uh is is either too complacent about something or it's got it right well I mean we're not going to appreciate every quarter the way we did Q4 last year q1 this year so you know we'll take you know whatever 4% and change a quarter every quarter forever would be fine I think the the the three kind of bull sort of legs of the stool in case right margins are going up for the average company Financial conditions at least if you look at Chicago fed or you know the Bloomberg Financial conditions other look pretty easy and this dream of AI earnings growth what it could do years 3 through 10 or whatever still seems pretty dreamy right so I think that's intact I don't we'll see I'm not expecting to get any major negative pre-release on earnings this week it's a little bit of a weird week with the holiday in the middle of the week and normally you know when you get worried you worried about a reset to second half of the Year earnings revisions I don't think we're going to get that so I think so far um you know the there's a sort of a positive skew to the outcomes but the way you teed up that question could anything worry me of course well of course yeah you could always go looking for something without a doubt it's not just Kathy Wood that's betting big on paler as Bank of America analysts recently added paler stock to their top 10 best us ideas list for the third quarter they also reiterated their buy rating for the stock and $28 price Target Bank of America believes that paler is poised for significant upside driven by the accelerating adoption of AI additionally in their most recent note the analysts identified several factors that will Propel palente growth for starters they forecast large growth in defense sector AI integration and this trend will directly benefit paler not only that but the company's Commercial Business is expected to grow massively through boot camps and other channels demonstrating the value of its AI Solutions and finally the analysts said that potential inclusion in the S&P 500 Index could lead to more institutional investors paying attention to paler which could in turn boost the stock price it's also important to note that Bank of America's technical analysis also supports their bullish Outlook as it points to a bullish correction that has positioned the stock for a move towards $30 per share the options Market is also considered an attractive Opportunity by the analysts who argue that options prices underestimate the potential volatility surrounding the upcoming Q2 earnings announcement which creates an opportunity for investors to gain leveraged upside exposure through call spreads but let's talk about why you continue to see and be the bullish Dan IES that you have been for quite some time look and it speaks to rvu going into the year NASDAQ 20,000 is where I think we head tech stocks up another 15% because even though this has been led by Godfather of AI Jens in Nvidia the multiplier for every dollar spent on Nvidia chip 8 to10 flowing through the rest of tech software infrastructure semi is and I think Now consumer AI Revolution with what's happening in apple in my opinion it is 900 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to 400 a.m. and I think this Tech Market bull Market's going to continue how long does it take to get to 4:00 a.m. though I think there a two in our opinion it's a two-year Tech bowl Market because I think the next phase is second third fourth derivatives it's about the use cases playing out of course you see what's happening with Microsoft hypers scars Google Amazon but then next it's going to be names like paler mongod DB I think what mcder is doing at service now you look at Oracle if someone told you Dell was an AI Name six months ago they'd say there's no wet look at it today and I think this is it's a 1995 moment not a 1999 moment I think numbers go up significantly going into next year and it speaks to our view where the Bears will continue to yell in their caves about valuation with their spreadsheets byting this Tech Market continues to move higher there's no denying that paler stock has benefited greatly from the generative AI boom that was kicked off by the release of open ai's chat GPT in 2022 in particular the company's stock is up more than 60% over the past year and with many analysts saying that paler stock is actually overvalued has all the growth been priced in already or should investors go ahead and buy more paler shares to answer these questions let's take a look at what the next 5 years might have in store for this AI software company for starters the company can be considered one of the early AI companies as its one of the few companies that actually pioneered Technologies like machine learning and big data analytics palente business model is a software as a service one where clients pay a recurring fee for access to its two main AI platforms Gotham which is targeted at commercial clients and Foundry which is designed for the company's business with the government palente government contracts are very important to the company and can be considered the key to the company's economic Mo this is because unlike typical software companies paler has a long track record of working on classified missions with the government and most recently the company has helped the Ukrainian army with targeting in its war against Russia and the company's Commercial Business is also thriving as q1 commercial Revenue jumped 27% year-over-year to $299 million while government revenue grew 16% to $335 million in the end we could say that palen's future will depend on how well it can integrate large language models and other generative AI Technologies into its existing data analytics Solutions and while paler is a market leader when it comes to this investors shouldn't ignore the fact that the commercial side of this opportunity is really competitive in fact Rivals like Snowflake and Microsoft's fabric offer similar data analytic software and these companies also have an in-house cloud computing Focus while palente Foundry relies on third-party cloud service providers like Amazon's AWS Google cloud and Microsoft Azure but the good news is that palen's government business looks sustainable and new technologies like drones are increasing demand for the type of services that paler provides with all of this in mind paler investors have a lot to look forward to over the next 5 years as the company remains unbeaten when it comes to providing AI software to governments the AI data analytics Market is expected to reach a value of $223 billion by 2034 growing at an exceptional compound annual growth rate of 22.6% while the global AI in the military Market is expected to be worth over $24 billion by 2032 so we see no reason to bet against paler right now but what do you think about paler stock is it a buy now and don't forget to tell us what your valuation for paler is if you would like to know what companies like paler
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