저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표가 AI 섹터와 시장 전반에 중요한 분수령이 될 것이라는 주장. 매출 성장률 112%, EPS 성장률 125% 등 높은 컨센서스 기대치에 대해 Ives는 실적 충족만으로는 부족하며 AI 수요가 가속 중이라고 봄. 블랙웰 출하 지연(약 3개월)은 단기 부정 요인으로 지적하며 단기 주가는 소폭 하락 가능성을 언급하나, 향후 수년간 기회는 유효하다고 주장. 1년 뒤 시총 4조 달러 전망, 기술주 전반에 1달러당 8~10배 승수 효과 주장.
다듬은 글
brace for impact. Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is poised to send shock waves through the markets. Prominent analyst Dan Ives calls this the most important week in years, and anticipation has reached a fever pitch. Nvidia dominates the red-hot AI sector, and demand for its graphics chips remains insatiable. This earnings call is far more than just another quarterly update. It could validate Nvidia as a generational tech leader. Investors are buzzing with excitement, expecting a potential bombshell that may shake up the markets. Don't blink. Nvidia's next earnings announcement could change everything, but for now, uncertainty breeds anticipation. The ground is rumbling, so brace for impact. This week marks a turning point, for better or worse. Stay tuned as we dive into how this earnings report could reshape investor expectations and sentiments. Major players like former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and prominent trader Steve Grasso have already voiced their opinions, signaling a whirlwind of potential market movement.
All right, you might think the final week of August would be relatively quiet, as traders take their last vacation days before the end of summer. However, there's a huge, potentially market-moving event looming next week: Nvidia earnings. Some analysts are suggesting those results may even overshadow Jay Powell's speech today in Jackson Hole. It seems Nvidia is under pressure every quarter to prove the AI hype is real and justify lofty valuations for big tech. Joining me now is Dan Ives, managing director of equity research at Wedbush. Dan, a lot riding on this report. You have a new note out. Let's start with the estimates. Revenue growth of 112%, EPS growth of 125%. Just astronomical. You're one of the biggest fans of this company. Can this company meet these expectations, or even exceed them? Is just meeting them good enough for investors?
Meeting is not good enough, but I believe this is going to be a drop-the-mic moment for the godfather of AI, Jensen Huang, because all of our checks are showing this is accelerating. And I think the street, like you said, every quarter, "prove it, prove it." This revolution is just starting, but it all starts with Nvidia. In my opinion, it is the most important earnings report, not just of the year, but potentially in many years, because of what this represents in terms of tech. This groundbreaking earnings report is on the horizon for Nvidia, and attention, stock market enthusiasts, brace yourselves for what might be the most pivotal week in recent memory. A bold prediction has rippled through the financial markets, and the spotlight is firmly on Nvidia Corp (NVDA) ahead of its highly anticipated earnings report. Prominent analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities has dubbed this the most important week for the market this year, and potentially in years, as Nvidia continues to dominate the AI sector. The stakes couldn't be higher.
Analyzing the buzz surrounding Nvidia's upcoming report, the air is electric with anticipation. Predictions are swirling, and it's clear this isn't just another earnings call. Dan Ives describes it as a masterpiece quarter driven by insatiable demand for AI. But why all the fuss over one company? Nvidia has been making strategic moves that solidify its place as a leader in AI technology. The company recently announced a collaboration with Foxconn for the manufacturing of its GB200 AI servers. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt didn't mince words when he talked about Nvidia's dominance in the AI accelerator market. According to Schmidt, major corporations could soon be funneling billions into AI data centers, much to Nvidia's benefit. Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital, and Goldman Sachs analysts join the chorus of bullish voices. Jackson forecasts Nvidia's stock might surge to $340 in the medium term, while Goldman Sachs continues to emphasize strong demand from cloud service providers and enterprises for AI solutions. Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari points out that Nvidia's data center segment could be a major earnings driver.
To add a touch of humor to this intense conversation, remember the old stock market joke: what's the difference between a stock trader and a pizza? A pizza can feed a family of four. With stocks like Nvidia, maybe it's time to rethink that analogy. With Nvidia's current trajectory, it might soon afford much more than just pizza.
So I've been asking a lot of people: is it the earnings that matter, or the guidance? Because the expectations are lofty. Let's say they meet or beat on revenue and EPS, but the guidance isn't what people are expecting. What does that do to the stock? What do you think it does to the market?
It's all about the guidance. But we just got back from Asia, and all of our checks are showing the street is still underestimating this acceleration, because right now the only game in town is Jensen. If you look at what Nvidia is doing, especially with chips coming forward, this enterprise demand is just starting, in my opinion. Of course Powell's Jackson Hole speech is important, but what the market does for the rest of the year, and I could argue even in 2025, starts with the Nvidia earnings. Get the popcorn ready. You've said this every quarter, Dan. No, but this is going to be a showstopper, showing where the revolution is going. The skeptics continue to get proven wrong. The second, third, and fourth derivatives are just starting to play out. When I look at what the godfather, Jensen, and Nvidia are doing, we're talking about transformation. I believe a year from now this is a $4 trillion market cap, along with Apple and Microsoft. By the way, you changed his last name. It's Jensen Huang, not Jensen Wong anymore. You just decided, look, you're making decisions.
I want to get back to your note. According to your research, for every dollar spent on Nvidia chips, it flows through to the rest of the tech sector at 8 to 10 times. What does that mean for some of these other stocks? That's the most important thing, because it's not just about Nvidia. It's about the multiplier, the revolution. For the trillion dollars of capex, for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip, there's an 8 to 10x multiplier across the rest of tech. That's why it's so important for what Nvidia says, for this bull market to continue.
Stepping back to examine the stock's performance: Nvidia closed at $123.74 on Thursday, a 3.70% drop for the day, but recovered slightly in after-hours trading, up 0.64%. Despite this volatility, the stock has soared by an eye-popping 156%. Nvidia holds a market share of more than 80%. The company is also expanding beyond GPUs with offerings like the Grace data center server chip and its suite of software and services products, which recently hit an annual revenue run rate of $1 billion. But that's not all, so let's keep rolling.
This week I think it begins and ends with Nvidia, and I'm not trying to put too much on it, but the expectations are extremely high. We know what the stock has done. The recovery it's made in the last couple of weeks, when it got underneath 90 and all the way back up to 130-140 at its high, has been an incredible run. But you can see, on a day like today, what the influence of Nvidia truly is. When you look at the NASDAQ, and even over at the Dow, the Dow just couldn't hold on any longer. So much of the Dow is not Nvidia, but it's tech-related, and anything connected at all with Nvidia is certainly getting pulled down along the way today. That's why I think we've seen that big correction in the Dow, while the NASDAQ just continues to flow to the downside. You can credit technology, and you can really credit the semiconductors, which are down a little over 2% so far today.
Look at tweets by analysts and market insiders and you'll notice a common theme: confidence in Nvidia continues to grow. One tweet from Eric Jackson reads, "If you believe in AI's future, Nvidia is a must-have in your portfolio." Another, from trader Steve Grasso, mentions that re-entering Nvidia is a no-brainer given future price action. But Nvidia isn't alone in benefiting from the AI boom. Chipmakers like Arm Holdings and Broadcom are also riding the wave. Year-to-date, Arm stock has increased by 80% and Broadcom by 49%, even though the S&P 500 has shown a substantial 18% advance. It's clear that AI-linked stocks are in a league of their own. Nvidia's chips underpin the most advanced AI systems, and the company is strategically expanding its product offerings beyond GPUs, further solidifying its market positioning.
It's a big week. You think the odds are skewed that Nvidia actually trades down on earnings? Why is that?
You hit the pressure point right out of the gate, and that's related to the Blackwell delay. Last quarter, Jensen Huang said they were going to have a lot of Blackwell demand, specifically in calendar '24. I suspect that's going to be modest revenue. We're talking about a three-month delay, and ultimately, for investors who are hyper-focused on every minute of what this company is doing, that could be viewed as a slight negative. Also keep in mind the stock is up 30% over the last three weeks, just shy of 5% from its all-time highs. There's a ton of noise around the quarter, but I think the Blackwell piece is probably the most important X factor. That's why I think the stock is going to trade down modestly, but I don't think that stock action should be representative of the opportunity Nvidia has over the next couple of years.
As we wrap this up, it's clear that Nvidia's imminent earnings report is more than just a quarterly update. It's a potential market-moving event. If you've been on the fence about investing in Nvidia, now may be the time to jump in. The company's robust presence in the AI sector, coupled with strategic collaborations and a diversified product portfolio, paints a very optimistic picture for future growth. Currently, Nvidia's stock shows volatility, but the upward trajectory year-to-date cannot be ignored. Analysts like Eric Jackson are projecting a potential surge to $340, which underscores the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock. Moreover, Nvidia continues to innovate and expand its market share, making it a compelling option for long-term investors. So what's your take? Are you as excited as we are about Nvidia's prospects? Do you think this earnings report will be the game changer everyone is predicting?
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