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엔비디아는 블랙웰 칩 출시 지연 우려로 하락했으나, 수요 자체는 여전히 강하고 고객사(MS·메타·알파벳·아마존)들은 AI 투자를 늘리고 있다고 주장. 밸류에이션도 성장률 대비 매력적이라는 분석. 단기 변동성은 있으나 실적 발표 전후로 진정될 것으로 봄. 영상 내용은 주로 리서치 애널리스트 인터뷰와 나레이션으로 구성되며, 실적 기대감을 근거로 낙관적 입장을 취함.
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Nvidia and other chip stock surge over 5% Thursday as Tech let a market rebound joining us now with more on the sector is bva Security senior research analyst VC Arya be great to have you with us and I know we highlighted the the 6% gain that Nvidia saw yesterday but if you take a look for the week Nvidia is actually underperforming uh the Philadelphia semiconductor index uh you know nvidia's down about 2% and the socks is up almost three and there have been doubts since probably that June 20th key reversal date where where Nvidia shares hit a new high and then close on um where the stock has really been struggling so where do you come out on on how the stock is valued uh and if there was just too much hype in the stock good morning Melissa so um I think practically speaking um whether it's Nvidia whether it's the rest of the semiconductor space we could stay uh volatile until Nvidia reports later uh this month and we have the required reset in any delays associated with their new uh black p ship which I think is is actually not that uh big uh but if we take a step back uh we have to separate what's happening in the market from the fundamental side I think what's happening in the market and the volatility uh has nothing to do with uh semis but this is where all the Gams were uh because AI was the best game in town um and that's why these companies uh saw the most draw down also during this volatility but let's look at the fundamental side number one every one of nvidia's top customers whether it is Amazon whether it is meta or Microsoft or Google they all said they are in investing more not less in AI number two if you look at nvidia's top supplier Taiwan semi they had very strong Outlook in fact this morning they gave very strong guidance uh for their uh last month of results and uh number three if you look at nvidia's top system partner super micro I I know they got dinged on the margin side but if you actually look at the uh sales group that they showed uh for the next uh 12 months up 90% that is two times what people are modeling for nvidia's growth and Nvidia usually out grows then so I think the fundamentals are still extremely uh strong but you know the market is going to go through its volatility uh which we think should subside uh By the time Nvidia reports its results because the fundamentals are very strong and the final point on valuation if I take the mag 7 outside of Nvidia they are trading and the broad Market uh it's trading roughly two times its earnings growth for next year envidia is trading 8 times right so it's trading less than 30 times for over 35 to 40% earnings growth so I think fundamentals are strong and valuation is still very compelling in a whirlwind turn of events Nvidia has found itself in the eye of a veritable Financial storm the semiconductor giant known for its cuttingedge work in artificial intelligence saw its stock plunge below a crucial support level catching the attention of Traders and Market commentators alike at the heart of the chaos lies a theory that's as tantalizing as it is unsettling are short sellers behind this orchestrated descent and is there more to the story than meets the eye in recent times Jim Kramer the charismatic host of Mad Money has cast a spotlight on nvidia's wo with the stock closing at a precarious $98 on August 7th and a sizable 15% drop over the week insiders and analysts are scrambling to make sense of the Market's Antics besides Nvidia another heavyweight Eli Lily has also captured the bearish crowd's curiosity what does this bearish Frenzy mean for NVIDIA and could there be a silver lining amidst the market storm clouds let's find out but before we do that if you want to keep up with the latest Nvidia that said back to today's video unless there's a doubt on the earnings growth and and I guess that's the key part of the equation where we'll get some more guidance from Nvidia in terms of the reports the delay to the Blackwell chip the reports first came out out out of the information um and I'm wondering you know it's interesting because when we hear about delays to to other Hardware items you know you think about it is it is it going to be a sale denied or a sale delayed so in your view these are sales that will be delayed correct that these sales will actually happen it's just maybe it's a pushed out a quarter two quarters whatever yeah so if we look at demand for nvidia's Hopper product uh which is uh the product before Blackwell demand for that is off the charts right now and that's what we heard from Super Micro you know they got it well above consensus and a lot of that is actually based on the hopper product because we just have had this period of insane Supply constraints in the industry and just because Blackwell is delayed a little bit doesn't mean the supply constraints have gone away so any customer who can put their hands on Hopper is still able to buy that product now when it comes to Blackwell there are many different versions of uh Blackwell the most uh extreme versions that are in the highest most densest version of the rack scale architecture they are perhaps pushed out by a quarter or so uh so that I think can be reflected in uh numbers but uh when it comes to other versions of Blackwell I do think that they will start to ship some Blackwell uh later this year but the key point is that demand in combination of Hopper and Blackwell I still think is extremely strong for them Jim Kramer's vocal observations have thrust the bearish activities surrounding Nvidia into the Limelight in an xost on August 8th Kramer candidly addressed the short sellers significant impact on nvidia's share price he hinted at the possibility of Insider information fueling this bearish spree essentially giving shorts the ammunition they need to crush Nvidia when Kramer speaks Wall Street listens and his remarks on Nvidia and Eli Lily highlight the broader Market implications of bearish onslaughts Kramer stated bears looking for easy money are betting big against Lily and invid once again those are the two keys to this market and don't you know it it's worth pausing here to appreciate the symbiotic relationship between these two seemingly disperate stocks one a Pharma giant the other a tech Titan his comment points out the nuanced ways in which different sectors can affect each other a complex dance that often leaves retail investors wondering if they're just being led astray moreover Market beat provided some Illuminating data on nvidia's short interest as of July 15th the report indicated a short interest of 28030 million shares marking a 6.70% decrease from the previous month this might suggest that while nvidia's Shares are under pressure the bearish sentiment hasn't reached apocalyptic levels just yet adding another layer to this narrative is invid short interest ratio which stands at 0.7 days based on an average trading volume of 45616 million shares in layman's terms short sellers could cover their positions relatively quickly indicating that market sentiment may be gradually shifting in favor of Nvidia it's like the market having a few more tools up its sleeve ready to counter the bearish Brigade and at the moment Nvidia is viewed by many as a meme stock which would definitely have a significant impact on on the stock performance especially in the light of the upcoming earnings report but how hello everyone and welcome back to investra a fresh read from the trips this morning Tai Taiwan semi reporting a 45% jump in July Revenue compared to last year that was thanks to strong demand for the company's AI chips Shares are well they're bouncing around along the Flatline here but a big outperformer on the year okay one of their key customers of course is NVIDIA and that stock has been whipsaw this week it's coming off what is its best day this month but the company has shed about a trillion dollars in market cap since mid June when it was at its highs let's get more on that name and a bunch of other semis joining us now is Bernstein Stacy razan uh Stacy always great to have you you know let's just start on Nvidia some of the news this week on the delays potentially as a result of sort of design issues around Blackwell a you know well just give me your take is it real and what's it going to mean yeah it it seems like it's real enough there's enough smoke there there's some fire we we've had some confirmation from other folks in the supply chain super micro kind of alluded to it and so it seems really it doesn't seem major right um it it seems like a a relatively minor design issue looks like they may have already fixed it we've got um uh maybe a 2 to three month delay I think what that really means is where people were hoping that like real volume shipments would happen in calendar Q4 it looks like it may be q1 so it's a slight push out you have to remember this stuff is is difficult to do so I mean like even even Nvidia is not necessarily immune to it in the meantime though like we've had hyperscale capex guides that are all still going up um all of those would have Incorporated whatever is going on like they didn't just find out about this you know because of the the news stories they would have Incorporated it and nvidia's got strong demand for their existing architecture which is called Hopper and it looks like they're they're likely increasing production of that to try to back fill uh and smooth things over until we actually get the Blackwell um launching uh in more volume maybe a quarter later but structurally I don't think it's it's it's that big of an issue now now cinnamon wise clearly it's it's it's impacted the stock I think the stock few things one was there's just been a a general reduction of sentiment on the AI space in general people just starting to look at lots of dollars you're getting spent they're wondering about where's the return so the sentiment wasn't you know quite as supportive as it had been and then you have this on top of it which which weighs on it so I mean that that's kind of what's been going on but structurally I don't know that any really has changed with Nvidia we got a little push out I think it'll be okay nvidia's stock has shown some unique trading momentum the fluctuating Capital has inadvertently thrust Nvidia into the meme stock territory a crowded stage often populated by equities with wild price swings and fervent online followings for a company of nvidia's pedigree this tag could feel as unwelcoming as a snarky internet meme this volatility could however set the stage for a significant rebound if nvidia's upcoming earnings reports exceed wall Street's expectations analysts remain largely bullish about nvidia's long-term Prospect drawing attention to its AI capabilities as a Cornerstone for sustained growth their optimism hinges on nvidia's performance metrics particularly how its AI chips prove monetarily advantageous for its clientele despite grumblings about a potential recession Jim Kramer remains relatively optimistic arguing that current corporate earnings do not Point towards an economic downturn while economic crises often tug at the Market's heartstrings Kramer's assertion suggests a decoupling between short-term volatility and the broader economic trajectory for NVIDIA this optimism May well translate into a rallying point with Wall Street analysts staying bullish on nvidia's long-term growth story a slight surge in positive sentiment could change the Stock's trajectory the convergence of favorable earnings a dip in bearish bets and an optimistic Outlook could restore some of the Lost luster to nvidia's stock so why Nvidia is worth the BET as the dust begins to settle it becomes evident that Nvidia presents a compelling case for Savvy investors despite the recent turbulence the stocks current state and future growth forecasts paint a promising picture nvidia's stock closed at $98 on August 7th but this price point coupled with its Aid driven projections opens a window of opportunity that informed investors wouldn't want to miss nvidia's commitment to AI provides a robust foundation for growth as Industries increasingly integrate AI into their processes nvidia's technological Edge puts it in a prime position to capitalize on this trend their AI chips which can potentially revolutionize various sectors are already generating significant revenue for the company so what is coming next for Nvidia stock and should you keep investing your money let's solve this dilemma first of all since the peak of June Nvidia Stu has pulled back by nearly 30% uh so that's underperforming most other semiconductor stocks that are exposed to Data Center Ai and reality is that you know even despite the concerns the recent concerns on on the company you know the Blackwell uh delay concerns around macro we still expect Nvidia to dominate the data center xpu market and um we see in-house xus doing well as well you know like companies like um Amazon uh Google are developing their own in-house xpu we also see alternatives to to Nvidia gpus like amd's gpus also uh ramping but we expect Nvidia to remain dominant in a market that is growing very very fast um and so I would say that uh we see little downside to expectations for nvidia's data center revenues we see little downside to valuation given the stock is now trading below the the trough multiple of the 2018 2019 down cycle um and so that makes it a very good investment at the moment I want to talk about what we've heard from some of nvidia's biggest customers the shaa was mentioning you've got Microsoft meta alphabet and Amazon contributing about 40% of nvidia's overall revenue and that's according to Bloomberg estimates if Wall Street was frustrated by the AI Roi story that we heard from those four big Tech names that I mentioned couldn't that hurt Nvidia too yes so I think the right way to look at it so yes you mentioned 40% of total revenues Nvidia actually also disclosed es you know that the large uh cloud service providers uh represent you know about half of their of their data center uh sales um if you look at how much capex for the top four hyperscalers is set to grow uh this year and next year and you unpack that you know between investments in AI investments in traditional infrastructure well it's true that we still need to see a bit further revisions to what consensus is expecting for capex growth next year to make room for NVIDIA to be able to meet expectations but uh not that much revisions maybe 10 15% actually um and uh yes of course uh whether capex can keep growing at such a pace Beyond 2025 is a question mark it will depend on the pace of adoption of generative AI powered use cases it will depend on the monetization of all the Investments made over 2023 2025 but reality is that even if we conservatively Model A significant can slow down in investments in 2026 2027 by these these Giants that still makes room for good upside for all the names we cover exposed to Data Center AI spending and so that's Nvidia of course but also AMD broadcom Arista uh tsmc Micron and theast according to Wall Street analysts Nvidia is poised to recover and even outperform in the long term the median price target for NVIDIA shares sits around $120 suggest an upside potential that should entice cautious yet optimistic investors their forecasts rest on the belief that nvidia's blend of innovative technology and Market positioning will drive its growth despite short-term Market volatilities historically Nvidia has demonstrated resilience and an uncanny ability to Pivot in response to Market demands this adaptability is a testament to its robust business strategy and could be indicative of a strong rebound as Market condition stabilize in the grand scheme of the stock market's fluctuations Nvidia stands as a beacon of innovation amidst chaos its recent drop beneath the $100 Mark has undoubtedly raised eyebrows but it has also set the stage for a potential turnaround driven by its AI prowess and a bullish long-term Outlook what are your thoughts on nvidia's current position do you see it as a golden opportunity to invest or is the bearish pressure to significant to ignore share your insights and join the conversation on the future of one of the most intriguing stocks in today's market landscape by staying informed and analyzing the trends investors can make strategic decisions that align with their financial goals as always the stock market remains a game of calculated risks but with Nvidia the rewards might well be worth the bet but what do you think about nvidia's evaluation for them is if you would like to know Nvidia has
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