저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜덤은 2009년 3월 이후 역사상 가장 긴 강세장이 투기적 광기로 변했으며 완전한 버블이라고 진단한다. 버블은 예외 없이 몇 년이 아니라 몇 달 안에 꺼졌다고 주장한다. 과열 신호: 장외거래(OTC) 물량이 2020년 2월 약 8천만 주에서 12월 11억5천만 주로 폭증했고, 2020년 말 거래 건수는 연초 대비 10배 이상이다. 그는 이를 탐욕을 넘어선 도취·망상 신호로 본다. 유동성 요인: 미국은 2020년 재정지출 2.6조 달러와 세금 환급 9천억 달러를 집행했고 2021년에도 이어질 것으로 본다. 그는 이것이 생산 투자로 이어지지 않고 주식시장으로 흘러들어 가격을 밀어올렸다고 본다. 밸류에이션 괴리: 퀀텀스케이프(QS)는 2020년 순손실 5,100만 달러에도 시가총액 170억 달러이며, 2020년 중 주가가 10달러에서 130달러로 올랐다고 언급한다. 경제는 약해졌는데 주가는 훨씬 높다고 지적한다. 연준 한계: 2020년 금리를 사실상 0으로 내려 정책 여력이 소진됐기 때문에, 다음 폭락 때 2000년과 같은 방식의 구제가 어렵고 하락 폭이 더 클 수 있다고 본다. 2000년에는 약 50% 하락 후 금리 인하로 비교적 빨리 회복됐다고 설명한다. 결론: 벤저민 그레이엄의 말을 인용해 단기는 투표기계이지만 장기는 저울이며, 결국 시장은 배당·이익 흐름에 의해 정당화되는 수준으로 돌아온다고 주장한다. 다음 폭락은 1929년·2000년과 유사할 것이라는 경고가 핵심이다.
다듬은 글
jeremy grantham he's a value investor he's a student of market bubbles and he's the chief investment strategist of gmo an investing firm with over 118 billion dollars of assets under management he normally doesn't do that many interviews however recently he went on bloomberg finance with some pretty stern things to say the bull market that started in march 2009 the longest bull market in history has matured into a speculative fever of rare proportions he said it is a fully fledged epic bubble put it this way when you have reached this level of obvious super enthusiasm the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months not a few years you can't maintain this level of near ecstasy it can't be done because you've put in your last dollar you are all in what are you supposed to do beyond that point you can't borrow any more money you can't take on any more risk how do you keep that level of enthusiasm going indefinitely and quote the answer is you can't just like when you drink alcohol or coffee the high has to turn to a low and the exact same thing will happen with the market you know you've got so many different signs that point to a bubble one of those signs that grantham talks about is the amount of trading going on he said if you want a crazy example of a sign and you need crazy by the way that's the best timing for a bubble top is crazy behavior you look at the over-the-counter trading i was a big over-the-counter trader in a speculative bubble of 1969 so last february it traded about 80 million shares for the month and it worked its way steadily throughout the year until november then it got to around 380 so it had gone up four times and then in december it went to 1.15 trillion shares for the month having tripled it then tripled again in a single month these are spectacular performances end quote so what we're seeing is more and more traders entering the market looking to make a quick buck as grantham said over 10 times more trades were placed at the end of 2020 compared to the start this is a signal of greed even more than greed it's a signal of euphoria slash delusion everyone's making money in the stock market let's all join in let's all do the same thing i don't want to miss out and this pushes prices higher and higher but always remember what follows greed and the new paradigm is denial then fear then capitulation and one of the things that is causing this euphoria in the market is this free money that everyone seems to be getting here's what grantham said the sad truth of a lot of the quotes stimulus is that it didn't increase capital spending it didn't increase much in the way of real production but it flowed a lot of it eventually into the market one way or the other and i have no doubt some of this new round of stimulus will and if it's as big as they talk about this would be a very good making of a top for the markets just of the kind that the history books would enjoy we will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last desperate chips into the game and then an even more spectacular bust end quote the usa's government had 2.6 trillion dollars of stimulus spending in 2020 and 900 billion dollars worth of stimulus tax relief that is expected to continue to be the case in 2021 more free money given out and at the end of the day if you keep giving people free money they think oh that's nice to have all of my friends are making gains in the stock market i'm gonna put it there too try and make a quick buck and this pushes prices up and up and up that's one reason why grantham thinks we're at the greed delusion new paradigm section of this graph he said we've had even more spectacular fed friendliness and government friendliness so we've had for once the joining of fiscal spending with the fed's behaviour and the result of this is that confidence has risen and risen until finally people are reaching for the greatest demonstration of competence they have had in their investment career they're borrowing more money to throw into the market their belief in the market is profound the common wisdom is with the fed on your side how can you lose and quote but at some point the market has to come back to reality just like when we daydream someone's gonna tap us on the shoulder and take us back to the real world eventually that will happen with the stock market too as jeremy grantham said the market is going to end up as we know where it is going to end up and all of the paper in the world will not change the level that is justified by the flow of dividends and earnings that is after all the only thing that you can end up eating is the flow of dividends and sooner or later the stock market will once again boring boring sell on the future flow of dividends that is not going to be changed materially on the size of the check that we get over the next few weeks okay one of the great analogies on how the stock market works was made by benjamin graham the father of value investing he said in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine what he's trying to get at is in the short run the stock market is all about emotions and investing sentiments how much free money do people have on them how happy and greedy are investors feeling but in the long run the stock market will always reflect reality and reality is that a stock is a piece of a business and a business is worth how much money that it generates right now we've seen the stock market reach all-time highs but businesses are generating way less money than what they were before and that's because the stock market is not in touch with reality there is too much free money in the market and too much euphoria one example that jeremy grantham gives to reflect this is his own stock quantum scape he said my own stock in quantum scape it came into the market at ten dollars and shot up to a hundred and thirty at a hundred and thirty dollars a share it was bigger than general motors or panasonic this is a brilliant company but it has no trouble admitting that it won't be producing any batteries for four years no sales no profits and bigger than gm there is nothing like that in 1929 nothing of that scale nothing like that even in 2000 and quote because people have so much free stimulus checks coming in they're willing to throw ridiculous amounts of money at even stocks that aren't earning any profit in fact quantum scape the stock that he is talking about made a negative 51 million dollars of profit in 2020 but it still has a market cap of 17 billion this just shows you how disconnected the stock market is from reality as grantham said if you go back to before the illness what you see is we have lost considerable strength in the economy we have fewer people working and we have a reduced stream of goods and services and yet the price is much higher so if you believe in market efficiency which is wrong was it wrong before or is it wrong now but is it rarely justified that we have delivered a serious wound to the global economy and the global stock market has gone way up it doesn't feel right and i think we all know that this is a monetary game and you can keep these little monetary bubbles going for just so long as long as you keep confidence levels rising but when confidence hits these levels the history books are pretty clear it's very difficult to increase your enthusiasm from a state of mild hysteria which is where we are today end quote and the other thing that doesn't exactly help is the fed have already played all of their aces their good cards have been played out in 2020 they lowered interest rates from around two and a half percent to effectively zero they did this to try stimulate the economy and make sure that the market recovered from its crash but they've played their cards now you can't lower it anymore it's at zero so the next crash it's a lot harder for the fed to step in and prevent or minimize the damage grantham said in 2000 it went down 50 percent and the reason it only went down fifty percent and bounced back relatively quickly was because the fed came charging into the rescue and they lowered interest rates but now you're down interest rates and you have to realize that most of the easy pickings of saving the game by ramping rates down is behind us at the lowest rate in history you don't have a lot in the bank to throw on the table do you so we've got the fed they don't have the power that they normally did throughout history look at the interest rates throughout history and their saving grace was always the fact that they could lower it because rates were so high today we don't see the fed having that power and that could result in a very bad crash because you're mixing the wrong ingredients you're mixing euphoria and greed in the market but also investors who don't understand the market well or understand the value of their investments these are the problems that we are facing in the current market and they could be our demise let me know your thoughts in the comments below
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