저자: CooperAcademy진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
버크셔해서웨이가 최근 분기 보유 종목의 절반 가까이를 매도했으며, 43개 종목 중 15개를 전량 매도하고 6개를 축소했다. 아마존·유나이티드헬스·비자·마스터카드 등을 전량 매도한 반면 델타항공, 구글(알파벳) 대규모 매수와 뉴욕타임스 추가 매수가 있었다. 발언자는 이 변화가 워런 버핏에서 그렉 아벨로 투자 스타일이 넘어가는 신호라고 해석한다. 포캐스트(Forecast) 도구의 적정가치 분석과 시장 과열 지표도 소개된다.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has just sold half of the stocks in its portfolio. They held 43 stocks before. They sold fully out of 15 of those stocks, and they reduced six other positions. In the past, Warren Buffett was not afraid to make sales, but never to this extent. Just looking at the macro stock market environment, what does this feel like to you?
Is does it feel expensive? Does it feel like there are opportunities in some places? feel like and I've I've compared to the markets to a church with a casino attached, but the casino's gotten very attractive to people. This means for the last 15 consecutive quarters, he's been a net seller of stocks.
So, for effectively four straight years, Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought every single quarter. And he's built up the mother of all cash piles. Berkshire now has over 370 billion dollars in cash. It isn't all right deal surrounding area in terms of deploying cash for Berkshire. In this video, we are going to look at all of the key stocks that Berkshire has sold.
We're going to look at the few stocks that were bought and use Forecastor and its technology to try and answer the question, why on earth has he done so much selling? Probably the most interesting sell, at least for me, was the Amazon sell. Berkshire sold 100% out of Amazon, getting rid of 2.2 million shares.
Uh but hang on, Amazon didn't Bill Ackman buy Amazon? Didn't Seth Klarman buy Amazon? Didn't 15 other super investors buy Amazon in the most recent quarter? Yes, yes, they did, but not Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire sold fully out of their Amazon position, as you can see with Forecastor, who are the sponsor of today's video, Amazon's net income has just shot up these past few years.
Don't forget in 2022, they made negative profit. And now, in the latest 12 months, they made 90 billion. All of their prior investments are actually making profit now, and maybe Berkshire has just said, "Let's take our own profit with the trade while things are going well." Another interesting one that I was kind of shocked at with the selling was United Health Group.
They sold 100% of the stock selling 5 million shares. United Health always seemed like the ultimate value play. If you look at Forecast as discounted cash flow valuation, the stock had an intrinsic value at $625. That means that the current price of $390 is 58% below the fair value. United Health's stock price just collapsed from $600 to 300 in a matter of months back in 2025, but their sales didn't collapse, and we all thought that obviously with fundamentals not bad, it seemed like the stock price obviously would recover.
And the funny thing is it actually started to recover. It went from $270 to 390, but as we've just found out, Berkshire Hathaway still sold. Next on the list of stocks fully sold out of is MasterCard and Visa, the two payment giants. Visa, they sold 8.2 million shares of, 100% gone, and MasterCard, they sold 3.9 million shares, fully gone, too.
Just from a qualitative perspective, both Visa and MasterCard have earned a decent score with Forecast as AI. So, the AI analyzes 10 qualitative questions with regards to a stock, and as you can see, Visa scored pretty high. They got an eight out of 10. It says, "The current scorecard indicates a business with a durable moat, resilient operating history, recurring revenue characteristics, pricing power, solid leadership continuity, and continued long-term growth potential." Kind of a business that you'd think that Berkshire would actually like to own, but no, not anymore, fully sold.
And MasterCard actually scored an eight out of 10, too. Forecast as AI analysis says MasterCard Incorporated scores as a high-quality compounder with a strong moat, resilient business model, recurring revenue characteristics, pricing power, and attractive long-term growth potential. Again, basically a stock that you would think Berkshire would love.
And they did love it in the past because they bought it. But now, as we know, Warren Buffett is no longer the CEO, and there's definitely a change happening. Someone else seems to be making the moves. Okay, some of the lesser stocks fully sold by Berkshire, which I'm not going to go fully into because they don't interest me that much.
He sold fully out of Liberty Group C and Group A stock, sold fully out of Liberty Media Corp Formula 1 Series C. He sold fully out of Atlanta Braves, Diiego Tec DEO, Leggion ticker A L L E, Charter Communications ticker CHTR, Lamar Advertising ticker LAMR, Heico Corp ticker HEI.A, PoolCorp ticker POOL, and also sold I own the insurance brokerage firm.
Okay, so those are the stocks he sold out of fully, 15 positions in total that he 100% got rid of. Berkshire used to have 43 stocks in the portfolio. Now it has only 30 stocks. I still want to show you the stocks that Berkshire bought because they bought six stocks in the recent quarter, and three of those are going to shock you because, well, they shocked me.
Okay, we have here the list of stocks that he bought. The most boring out of all of these buys is the Lennar buy. He bought Lennar all the way back in Q2 2023, and he's just been adding to that position for a number of years. But what shocked me is they've just gone and bought Delta Airlines. It was not a menial buy, a menial position.
They bought 39 million shares worth 1% of their portfolio. 1% is a lot when you look at the size of their usual buys. Delta Airlines is one of the largest airlines in the world, a giant global transport company that specializes in moving people and cargo from one place to another through the sky. The reason why this shocked me is because of what Warren Buffett has said about airlines in the past.
Buffett long said that airlines were a bad investment, calling the industry a death trap for investors. He once joked that if a real capitalist had been at the Wright brothers first flight, they should have shot the plane down, which humorously would have prevented airline losses for investors across history.
Forecast AI has given a nice summary of the challenges that Delta are facing. It says the airline industry is grappling with a significant increase in jet fuel prices, driven largely by geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Internal memos have revealed that Delta recently struggled with hundreds of flight cancellations and faced negative feedback on social media with travelers expressing frustrations over bare-bones service standards.
Anyone who knows anything about investing in airlines will know that it's a cyclical and a tough industry to make profits in, which is why I'm surprised that Berkshire bought. It's also a big clue that it was probably Greg Abel who made this decision, not Warren Buffett. Okay, there was also another investment that was made that kind of took me off guard.
Berkshire made a big move, a very big move by Berkshire standards, into Google stock. They bought both the class A and the class C shares. They put around 4.4% of the portfolio into the stock, around 40 million shares in total. So, that is a tripling of the original position. So, they've sold Amazon, they sold Apple, and they prefer holding a stock like Google.
But, they didn't buy the stock when Bill Ackman was buying or when Google was selling for very cheap when everyone was worried about ChatGPT taking market share. Remember back then the price was only $150 and the P/E ratio was 17. Berkshire has bought into Google at sky-high prices. Now it's got a P/E ratio of 30 and a price around the $350 to $400 range.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is not something that I would ever see Buffett doing. This tells me it must be Greg Abel who made this move. Fundamentally, if you use all four of Forecast's valuation tools, the discounted cash flow method, the Peter Lynch method, the economic value added method, and the EV to sales method, we get an average fair value of $330.
So, that means that the current price is 15% above fair value. This does not mean that Google is a bad business. It just means that the price is relatively high right now. Again, this is why it surprises me why Berkshire have tripled down on their position with such high prices. And it's these types of moves that shows a partly fundamental change in Berkshire's investing style.
The website that I'm using to give you this data is Forecast, my favorite, who are sponsoring this video. Forecast have just released some new features on their website to help make our lives even easier as investors. If you click on this little dotted square here, you'll see that they've just released the sector map.
This has all the charts from all of the different S&P 500 sectors, financials, energy, utilities, all of them. You can choose any which one you want to focus on and you can click the left and the right arrow to go back into any which time frame that you want to study. You can also scroll down and click on the different sectors to see what are the components of each sector and you can look at on a fundamental base if the sector is over or under valued.
Now, to my favorite part of it, which is the statistics section, where you have the market mood meter for each specific sector. So, you can see any sector that you want, whether it may be oversold or neutral or overbought. So, right now in this current market, we have two sectors which are overbought, and that is communication services, which is just a little into the overbought section, and then technology, which is very high into the red on the scale.
It's basically the equivalent of seeing in the fear and greed index, but it's just more detailed and more specific to any sector that you want. So, you can use this to see what is happening in the different sectors in the market. Now, are investors panicking? Are they rationally exuberant? And then you can use that information to see where potential opportunity may be in the market.
If you want access to this latest tool, you can click the link in the description or the pinned comment to get 10% off. The last buy that did surprise me of Berkshire Hathaway was not Macy's, which was just a tiny buy worth 0.2% of the portfolio. It was the buy in The New York Times. Berkshire tripled down on their bet with The New York Times, adding a further 10 million shares to their original position.
You know, The New York Times is just an old newspaper company. Surely this is just a dying business and a bad investment like the textile business investment that Warren Buffett regretted buying in the past. If you know, you know. Well, not necessarily. If you look at their revenue with forecasters graphing out to, you can see that The New York Times was dying from 2006 to 2013.
The revenue was going down. It went from 3.3 billion to 1.6 billion. But then they started to recover. They started posting online and building up memberships and ad revenue. Now they are making 2.9 billion dollars in revenue, and it's growing. Also, just scroll down a bit. In terms of net income, it is way more profitable than it used to be.
They used to have to spend all of this money on printing and distribution. Now all of those costs are gone, and this is why you see the profit having increased and the margins being higher. They increased their profit from 126 million in 2018 to 382 million in 2016. You can understand with this investment why Berkshire tripled down on their position.
This kind of brings me to a greater point on who is now making all of the investments at Berkshire. Originally, I thought that yes, Greg Abel was now CEO, but Buffett is still the main one behind the investments. But then, when you see Berkshire buy Google stock after Google's just doubled in price, and then you see them buy Delta Airlines, something that Buffett said he gets therapy to get told not to ever buy airlines, and then you see them sell out of 15 positions, some of which seem to be good value plays.
Now, I'm starting to think it's more Greg Abel making the moves, making the investments as opposed to Warren Buffett. I mean, feel free to disagree with me, and let me know where I might be wrong in the comment section below. Let me know, I'm interested to see what you guys say. Okay, a few more surprising moves made this recent quarter.
Let's start with Bill Gates. He did something you probably wouldn't expect, which is he sold out of all of his Microsoft shares. As you can see, it was a full exit, 100% sold. Microsoft has been tumbling in terms of price. It was $540 a share, and now it's just 400. They're selling for a P/E ratio of 25 right now, so it's one of the cheaper ones in the S&P 500.
And the price is so low despite net income having increased to 125 billion and sales up to 318 billion. You would think, actually, that the price should be up, but obviously, the big fear here with this stock is that AI has come along and AI coding, and everyone's worried that AI will be able to code programs similar to Microsoft and take away their moat.
And that's the big question. So, it's very interesting to see Gates sell cuz it tells you which way he thinks things are heading. And then you have Bill Ackman who basically did the opposite of what Gates did. He sold out of his Google stock, sold out of Uber, and he's gone ahead and bought Microsoft and Amazon stock.
So, there you go. Everything has been changing. Berkshire Hathaway has a new leader, a new investor at the helm. Will he invest as smart and as wise as Warren Buffett? I personally, I don't think he will. He sold out of some decent value plays. He's bought into airlines and he's bought into a relatively expensive Google stock.
We have Bill Gates fully selling out of the company that he founded. And we've got Bill Ackman selling his Google to buy Microsoft and Amazon. There is a lot that has happened. This video is sponsored by Forecaster. They are fast becoming one of, if not the best website for investors/ traders. My favorite is their AI agent and their graphing tools.
It's just such high quality. But they have much more than that. So, go click the link in the description or the pinned comment to use all of it and get 10% off.
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