저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
Burry는 AI 테마 과열과 1999-2000 버블 말기 유사성을 경고. 빅테크 이익이 주식보상비용 제외 등으로 과대계상(NASDAQ100 PER 실제 43 vs 표면 30)되었다고 주장하고, 시스코 사례처럼 매출 인식 리스크도 지적. 급등한 AI 관련주(팔란티어, 엔비디아 등) 축소 권고, 직접 공매도는 일반 투자자에게 비권장, 현금 비중 확대 제안. 영상 후반부 내용은 자막이 중간에 끊김.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry warned that the stock market was minutes away from a bloody collapse. He wrote that we are witnessing history, and this does not bode well for the stock market. Stocks don't rise or fall because of jobs or consumer sentiment. They soar because they grew up on a two-letter thesis that everyone seems to understand.
It feels like these are the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble . He also gave advice on selling a certain group of stocks that most investors probably have in their portfolios . So let's dig into what exactly he said about a market that is minutes away from collapsing and show you some direct guidance for us as investors.
The first thing to know about his words that we are minutes away from a crash— he doesn't mean that the market is about to collapse. Like, wait 3 minutes and the market will begin its massive collapse. No. First, it was only newspapers and Twitter accounts that turned this into a viral headline: "The Short Game investor Michael Burry says the market is minutes away from a bloody collapse." In fact, he said this: "This whole thing looks like the scene of a bloody accident a few minutes before it happens." So, he compared the stock market to a car accident and said we are now minutes away from it starting.
It was more of an illustration of what would happen in the market. He didn't say directly that there were only minutes left until the event. Sometimes, reading only newspaper headlines can easily mislead you. He meant that we are in the late stages of this market cycle. We've already passed the hype stage, where everyone was happy and making a lot of money.
We are at a level further—at the euphoria stage, where no one even thinks about stocks rationally. People buy just because their neighbor is buying and believe that stocks go up forever. And I'm going to explain why Burry believes we're at this point . First, in a euphoric market, the best investors are usually those who know the value of their investments.
Michael Burry said that 95% of investors probably have no idea what they own. But how to find out the cost? One tool you can use is InvestingPro from Investing.com, which has a fair value tool that instantly shows whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued using proven models. A great feature of this tool is that it is not limited to just one assessment method.
It combines discounted cash flows, profitability models, and peer comparisons, then weights them based on what is important to that type of company. So, let's take a look at Palantir shares on Investing Pro, since Bury has openly stated that he opened a short position on them. So, right now the price is $122.
But what is its cost? Investing Pro used 11 models to calculate fair value. And you can see that almost all of the fair value models used calculated a price lower than the current one . If we weigh them, the average fair value is $101 with a potential downside of 17.2%, which is a pretty significant deviation from the price.
Interestingly, when comparing this to analyst forecasts, Investing Pro cites the results of a survey of 27 analysts who, on average, predict a price of $182. You can also examine the company's financial status in detail and see its ranking on a number of different metrics, which helps you better understand its real health.
Previously, such analysis cost tens of thousands of dollars per year. Now any private investor can conduct it in less than a minute. If you want to check the fair value of any stock you're currently following, do it before the weekend, because the summer sale on investing.com ends in a few days. Discounts reach 60%.
This is the best price of the year. But if you use my link below, you will get an additional 15% discount, which means the lowest price on the market for the entire year. Don't miss it. This is the first link in the description for this video. Now back to why Bury believes we are in a state of market euphoria.
To understand why, you need to know the context of what he was talking about. What does he mean? This is all—the scene of a bloody car accident minutes before it happens. What is "that's all" and what is this scene? The scene is what is happening in the market right now. Were you paying attention? The first part of this scene is the relentless hype around AI.
He cited data that 87% of venture capital this year went to AI-related projects, compared to less than 40% for Internet companies in 1999. That is, that is twice as much money in percentage terms directed towards AI bets compared to what went into tech stocks 27 years ago. In 1999, all new companies ended their names with ".com." I don't know if you remember Pets.com, etoys.com, webvan.com, broadcast.com.
Today, companies are adding "AI" to their names: Jasper AI, Perplexity AI, C3 AI, and many others. It is believed that artificial intelligence will change many industries, so it is better to be the one who changes than the one who is changed. Michael Bury wrote: " Absolutely non-stop AI. No one talks about anything else all day.
Stocks don't go up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment. They go up because they're already going up based on a two- letter thesis that everyone seems to understand, which is reminiscent of the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble . So that's the first part of the picture. The non-stop hype around AI.
I could give many more examples, but I won't . The second part of the picture is what I call report-rigging. Some might call it fraud. Bury calls it earnings inflating . He said that Wall Street can overstate the earnings of our fastest- growing and most valuable companies by more than 50%. Bury notes that standard accounting rules allow companies to exclude stock-based compensation and merger costs from their expenses, because that the paper profits of the fastest-growing players look 50% higher than their actual results.
Depending on your level of financial literacy, this may be hard to understand. How do some of the world's largest companies make their profits look higher than they actually are? Well, welcome to the magical world of accounting. As we know, revenue minus expenses equals profit. One of the biggest expenses for companies is employee compensation.
But here's where the fun begins. Instead of paying employees entirely in cash, many companies pay a significant portion in company stock. Accounting rules require companies to show this as an expense. So according to official GAAP earnings, this reduces profits. However, when companies report their adjusted or non- GAAP earnings—the numbers that Wall Street makes headlines and that analysts usually focus on—they add these expenses back in and tell investors to ignore them because, supposedly, there's no money left business.
So profits suddenly look much higher, but shareholders' shares are still being diluted by the issuance of new shares. The expenses haven't disappeared. They've simply moved from the income statement to your percentage of ownership. This trick, and many others, are why Bury says Wall Street may be overstating the earnings of our most valuable companies by more than 50%.
In his consolidated study, Bury calculated that the 97 technology companies in the NASDAQ 100 reported $ 4.9 trillion in combined GAAP net income . But Wall Street analysts include stock-based compensation ( SBC) in their analysis, pushing that figure up to $5.8 trillion, creating the illusion of $ 1.7 trillion in earnings.
As the article puts it, the investor believes that market multiples are seriously distorted. If you strip the NASDAQ 100 companies of their accounting assumptions, the real The PE-to-earnings ratio, according to Bury, would be 43, not 30, as Wall Street usually thinks. So the price is actually much higher than the earnings, says Wall Street, which over the past 10 years has led investors to expect 42% more earnings than there actually were.
Where there is profit, there is manipulation, Bury said. So that's what's happening on the cost side of the equation. They're essentially under-reporting costs. But you also have to look at what's happening on the revenue side. Bury recalls Cisco in 2001-2002, when it was making tight, long-term contracts with suppliers to buy huge quantities of components.
That gave them huge upfront revenue. But what really happened was that those components went unclaimed after the dot-com bust. As a result, Cisco had to take a huge write-down, effectively wiping out the profits of its most successful years. Now let's move on to Today: Nvidia has a similar situation with huge billion-dollar contracts with chip supplier TSMC.
Michael Bury says that this poses the same threat as Cisco , and that the revenue may not be as guaranteed as some think. So, this is the picture of the market before the crash at this point. First, we have the continuous hype around AI. Investors are putting all their money into AI companies, based on the idea that these companies will make huge profits in the future thanks to AI.
Second, we have understated profits due to the exclusion of expenses such as stock compensation, underdepreciation of assets, etc. And third, we have overstated profits through pre- contracts, which are not necessarily guarantees. All of this is part of the recipe that Bury believes will inevitably cause a market crash.
Now we get to the interesting part, because I like to follow what people think and say about the forecast Bury. And there is some debate about his prediction and Bury in general. Market Pulse said Bury predicted 47 of the last three crashes. Yes, that’s true . He’s made a ton of predictions, especially in the last few years.
AI Money Lab said that a person who plays against the market says the market is going to crash. Yes, that’s true. He really does have a lot of short positions. So if at least some stocks crash, he can profit. So there’s a bit of self- interest bias here. I have to admit. One Reddit user said that bears are wrong so often that when they finally got it right, they made a movie about it.
Remnant pointed out that Michael Bury was wrong far more often than he was right. He’s a constant bear, which allows him to be right from time to time, but not because he’s smart. A broken clock is right twice a day. An advanced honey said he’s never seen anyone get so much fame for one prediction 18 years ago.
Theo then pointed out that the movie gave him a huge amount of PR, but that brings me to the other side of the story. Galaxy said, “I mean, he made billions on one good prediction, which I guess he deserved.” Smith said, “It’s not just that one prediction.” He’s been consistently backing his words with money since the 90s.
And as far as I can tell, he’s been right far more often than he’s been wrong, and it’s been much more profitable. Dizzy said he made a lot more than that . I think a lot of people here are just upset . He’s picking holes in the obvious narrative of irrational optimism. A lot of the “bag- that if Bury makes a prediction like that, the market is going to crash tomorrow, because the thinking in the financial world is so short-term ." Everything is based on the news.
And people give you about a week before they decide whether you're right or wrong. But if you think about "The Downside Game," the prediction that Bury was 100% right and made a lot of money on, his investors were angry with him for a long time because they thought he was wrong. The housing crash bet took a long time to play out.
If you looked at it in the short term, at the time you would think Bury was crazy. But if you gave it enough time, you would find out he was right. So that's just something to remember. We need to give it time before we determine whether he's right or not. And we need to be open-minded about what new advice Bury has for our investments.
Michael Bury wrote in a recent post on Substack: "The easier path for most people is to just reduce your holdings, especially tech stocks." For any stocks that are showing parabolic growth, reduce your position almost entirely. If a stock has gone up a lot in price or because of hype, sell it. That's what he's saying.
Michael Bury didn't specifically name the stocks he was talking about, but you can probably guess. These are most of the big tech AI stocks you see in the news. Palantir is a stock he's actively shorting, and it's up 560%. That's exactly the kind of stock. Even Nvidia is up 1,390%, another stock he's decided to short, another one with a lot of hype .
He's talking about chip companies: Super Micro Computer, AMD, or even Intel. The ones whose narrative is tied to artificial intelligence. And because they have that connection, their prices are going up. Those are the stocks Bury advises you to sell. Of course, any stock that ends in “AI” is clearly overvalued, according to Bury .
He’s not necessarily saying they’re bad companies. He says the price action itself becomes dangerous when everyone believes a stock can only go up because it has some connection to AI. Another piece of advice Bury gave us was about shorting stocks. He said he maintains a large credit short position against a portfolio of companies he believes are undervalued and cheap.
It’s a similar strategy he used in 2000. But Bury warned that betting directly against a rally through short selling is risky and impractical for most investors , especially since bearish trades have become much more expensive. He said shorting is not the way to go. It’s not something most people should do.
Buying put options is generally expensive right now, and outright shorting a stock can still cause significant damage. So he told us that he shorted, but he said not to do it yourself. It's kind of a warning: "I'm a trained professional , don't do it at home." Fair enough. I personally strongly discourage short selling either.
Historically, the market has been going up. So you're kind of swimming against the current as soon as you start shorting stocks. He's made a lot of money shorting in the past. But that doesn't mean you should be shorting stocks at home. But he did give us a little advice on what he thinks we should be doing at home.
He said investors should cut back on greed, because the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and impulse trading is pushing valuations up dramatically. He said that buying put options is generally expensive right now, and outright shorting stocks can still do a lot of damage. The idea is to accumulate cash and be prepared to put it to work when it makes more sense.
So this is essentially Warren Buffett's exact strategy for doing it. with the current market that we're in. Warren Buffett—if you look at his portfolio or his company's portfolio, Berkshire Hathaway has $263 billion invested in the stock market. And then you look at how much cash they have. They have $397 billion in cash right now.
So they have more cash than they have invested in the stock market, which seems pretty crazy the more you think about it. 65% more cash than stocks. That's exactly how Michael Berry thinks we should play this game.
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