저자: PeterLynch/영상해설자는CooperAcademy · 외국인
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결론: 하락하는 주식은 '싸 보인다'는 이유만으로 사면 안 되며, 사업 내용과 재무 상태를 이해한 뒤에만 매수 여부를 판단해야 한다. [Peter Lynch 강연 요지] - 가격이 많이 떨어졌다는 사실만으로 매수하는 것은 위험하다. 기업을 이해하지 못하면 하락 시 매도도 매수도 판단할 수 없다. - 폴라로이드(130→100 하락 후 18까지 추가 하락), 케이저 인더스트리(26→3까지 하락) 사례: 부채가 없어도 주가가 무의미하게 낮아질 수 있으며, 케이저는 보유 자회사 가치에 비해 시가총액이 극히 낮았다. - '3달러인데 얼마나 잃겠나'라는 생각은 틀렸다. 같은 금액을 투자하면 종목 가격과 무관하게 전액 손실 가능성이 같다. - 주식이 100에서 3으로 떨어졌다고 해서 저렴한 것은 아니다. 공매도 투자자는 하락 중인 종목을 계속 팔아 수익을 얻는 경우도 있다. - RCA, 플로피 디스크, 웨스턴유니온 등 회복하지 못한 기업 사례가 많다는 점도 경고한다. [해설자 요지] - 하락 시 던져야 할지, 더 살지 두 질문이 핵심이다. - 애플: 2020년 약 31% 하락 시 사업 기초 체력이 견고해 추가 매수가 합리적이었다(해설자 주장). - GE: 2016년 중반 32달러에서 2018년 초 16달러로 절반 하락했으나, 하락했다는 이유만으로 매수하는 것은 실수라고 경고. [실전 점검 방법] - 사업 모델과 수익 구조를 이해하고 향후 실적 방향을 판단한다. - 재무상태표에서 부채 규모를 확인한다(예: 델타항공 부채 과다). - 주가순자산비율(PBR)이 1 미만이면 저평가 가능성을 검토한다. 결론적으로 급락은 기회일 수도, 파산 신호일 수도 있으므로 기업 이해가 선행되어야 한다.
다듬은 글
there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further gonna go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 and a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's coming from 135 to 100.
it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18. and this is coming with no debt i mean as it comes it was just so overpriced it went down uh i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 a year to 16. i said how much lower can it go it's 16.
so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14. i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16 how much lower going to go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you got to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10.
well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now i unfortunately have rapidly i would probably be still caddying or being working at the stop and shot but i it happened fast i was able to this was compressed that uh and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kai's aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser cement they own kaiser broadcast they know kaiser santa gravel kaiser engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million and that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but i said everything's fine and eventually this worked out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they they passed out shares and kind of meant they passed out chairs and cars aluminum they passed out their public shares and kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about 50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got to 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when i went to eight what would you do one went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists haven't worked so far i've never seen them running in the the psychological psychiatry fund i've never seen this for the uh with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so i they haven't seen the help uh i've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either uh people think uh rca just about get back to its 1929 high when general electric took it over lot of double knits never came back remember those beauties uh floppy disks western union the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can i lose i've had people call me up saying i'm thinking of buying this stock at three how much can i lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in a stock at fifty or your neighbor put twenty thousand at full at fifty into the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars into three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can i lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a reason researchers thought the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at walmart they're not sure at home depot they're not sure the great companies johnson johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 70.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown taps on this thing yet it's going to zero and they're selling short seven they're selling short at six at five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know to sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing it's these people saying it's three how much lower can it go peter lynch he's one of the smartest investors of all time and this just gives you a glimpse into his genius investing mindset and i do want to explain what pete lynch is getting at for those who didn't quite grasp it you see all investors at some point in their life they have to deal with a falling stock i'm sure you've had to go through it i've certainly gone through my fair share of drops and these drops offer two very important questions the first one is should we sell the second one is should we buy more stock so i want to explain in a bit more detail the answer to these questions as per peter lynch's video and we'll start with an analogy let's say i come to you and i ask you if you want to play a game of chess we'll say the loser has to give the winner 10 000 now would you take this deal if you've never played chess before of course you wouldn't because you don't understand the game and odds are you're going to lose however if you're magnus carlsen the number one chess player in the world of course you take this deal because you understand the game and you know you're good at it it's the same with investing you need to understand the stocks and their underlying businesses before you buy anything and importantly you need to be good at this if you lack the understanding odds are you're going to be the dummy who ends up losing their money i want to give you two modern day examples of smart investing when a stock goes down and dumb investing so let's take apple stock for instance earlier this year they had a big crash they went down in terms of price by 31 almost a third of their market value wiped out now people during this time we're panicking how much further is the stock going to go down should i sell what should i do but it was those investors who actually understood the value of the business who didn't panic at all and bought more as you can see earlier on in 2020 after the crash apple was in my recommended list of stocks to buy now you can go and view that video because at the end of the day apple was still a solid business with a strong business model iphones were being used throughout the world the macbooks the ipads the watches the itunes the services segments they were still going strong it was those that understood the fundamentals of the business who knew what to do and bought more so that's an example of why is buying when a stock goes down why and more when a quality business goes below their intrinsic value but we can look at other examples that were not the smartest of buyers let's look at general electric halfway through 2016 it was selling for 32 dollars a share and everything looked rosy and then it started to drop and dropped some more at the start of 2018 it had dropped by half the original amount to 16 a share this left investors with burning questions hang on isn't general electric a complete bargain right now because it's dropped by 50 and once it was selling for 32 a share it must be a buy and this is the exact thing that peter lynch warns about don't simply buy a stock because it's dropped by a dramatic amount in price if you do this purely because of that fact most likely you're going to lose that's why warren buffett says just looking at the price is not investing at the end of the day you need to be buying a quality business one in which you understand the mechanics of and also where you got a decent idea of where the value is you need to be able to judge whether it's a falling knife or a gem that's on sale so i want to finish this video with some practical tips on how to tell if it's a falling knife or an absolute bargain because the thing is these massive price drops often offer huge opportunities you just need to be able to distinguish the good from the bad so step one is familiarize yourself with the business and the business model how do they earn money has this been hindered in any way recently in the future what is it likely to do our earnings going to increase stabilize decrease and to be able to know this you need to know the business well like a business owner would step two is do some digging in the balance sheet so you can do this simply through a website like yahoo finance and look at things like how much debt do they have for example delta airline stock has a massive pile of debt as you can see here another thing i'd look at is price to book value this is what peter lynch was talking about with kaiser industry stock back in the day if their price is ever cheaper than their book value you've got a bargain on your hands so have a look and see if the price to book is ever below 1 then you may want to consider buying so those are just a couple of simple things that you can do to determine if a stock is a falling knife or a bargain gem because at the end of the day these massive price decreases often offer major opportunity but you need to be able to distinguish if it's an opportunity to become rich or broke
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