저자: TomLee—출연자소속은제목·설명란미상,발언화자구분불명확으로주출연자'TomLee'기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed 9월 금리인상 가능성은 낮다고 주장. 8월 근원 CPI(약 2.3%) 발표 결과에 따라 Fed 판단이 갈리며, PCE 격차(약 100bp)는 플래시 메모리·주식가격 측정오류 탓으로 봄. 유가 상승·국채금리 상승·9/18 대형 트리플위칭 등 단기 리스크를 경고하면서도 AI 소프트웨어·로보틱스·사이버보안 등에 2027년 강세를 전망하고, 중소형주·순환주를 선호. 민주당 승리 시 AI 규제 우려도 언급.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee says today that he doesn't think the Fed will raise rates next week, and he still thinks September will be a very strong month. And while I have my doubts and concerns, the pressure on this market is growing. Let's listen to what Tom Lee just said , and then I'll share my perspective with you .
is stronger. I clearly remember that day. I was in midtown Manhattan working at JP Morgan when those attacks happened. Also, the August CPI is coming out on September 11th, and the markets will focus on that because that's what the Fed is focused on. Last week, Fed Governor Chris Waller said that he was leaning toward not raising rates in August, and everything would depend on the August CPI.
If progress in inflation continues, he will advocate holding the rate. If the August figure is high, it will consider raising the rate. And he actually believes that current policy is still disinflationary. So, this is a critical week. There are many other things coming out this week, including the New York Fed survey and the small business optimism survey.
By the way, it came out on Tuesday. The NFIB, I think, provided some promising findings. You know, if you look at inflation as a problem for business, in 2022 it was very high. It jumped earlier this year due to the war in Iran, but now it is actually on the decline. The same applies to the planned price increase, it also has a downward trend.
The New York Fed's inflation survey also showed encouraging results. It has been falling for 3 months in a row. And, by the way, this is confirmed by surveys from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board. On Thursday of this week, we will receive the August core CPI. But, of course, the main focus is on Friday.
We have the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and the August core CPI. And again , if it is soft or lower than expected, then the probability of an increase should fall, and this could be the main catalyst. But the prediction markets still give a 65, sorry, 55% chance that the Fed will raise rates. This is the base scenario.
And futures on the Fed rate indicate a 63% probability of an increase. We believe that in reality everything will go to zero. We do not expect the Fed to raise rates. And I realize that oil has risen significantly in the last week, yields are rising, and commodity prices have risen significantly, but remember what Chris Waller said.
It all comes down to the August CPI, and let me explain why. The Fed is targeting 2% annually. The core CPI for August is likely to be around 2.3. Well , that's not that far from the Fed's goal. Therefore, I believe that the Fed should be a little more patient, especially if the indicator is decreasing year over year .
But here's the thing. The Fed tends to rely on or directly relies on the core PCE index. It is 3.3%. This is 94 basis points higher than the CPI. I don't hear many people questioning this difference, but it is significant. That's 100 basis points, and of course, that's a very big difference for the Fed's decisions.
Well, here's the thing. We have already written about this. The matter comes down to two positions. Flash memory and stock prices account for almost the entire 100-basis point difference between core PCE and the CPI. So keep that in mind. I believe this is a measurement error in the PCE. And, by the way, gasoline costs are actually still quite low.
I mean, during the oil embargo, they reached 6.5% of the household budget. It was a big burden. During the Chinese supercycle before the global financial crisis, it was 4.5%. Even after the jump due to the Iran war, today it is only 2.2%. This is significantly below the 65- year average. Therefore, I think the probability of a rate hike will approach zero.
Of course, we are watching yields, and this is related to our view: if we are right and the Fed does not raise rates, then we have a contrarian position. I think September will be a positive month. It's September. We see people worried about negative seasonality, but this is a contrarian " bullish" signal.
We see a lot of pessimism about AI, but AI stocks are outperforming again. And remember, when people are bearish, it rarely means a top. We have the employment report for August and the CPI. I think both support the Fed's decision to pause. And, of course, we are waiting for the FOMC's decision on the rate.
In the meantime, let's consider what is driving the market performance since June 30. We are two months into the third quarter, and cryptocurrency remains the best performing asset, followed by energy and technology. Of course, that's where Granny is located, because we were betting that we still like AI, but since these derivative names have adjusted, Mag 7 software and crypto should outperform the market.
And the real stars of this quarter were cryptocurrencies. Of the 21 best-performing stocks in the Russell 1000, four are cryptoassets. This is a significant contribution to the results from the crypto sector. So, uh, small- cap companies, in our view, remain attractive, and that's why we've favored smaller players in the Granny J portfolio .
And that 's why we buy on dips. So, Tom Lee remains optimistic. He believes we will avoid a Fed rate hike. And look, I'm also cautiously optimistic. But, friends, we are betting on a 69.3% probability of a rate increase. If the consumer price index tomorrow doesn't come in significantly lower than expected, we'll get a rate hike.
And this is what we must be prepared for. Because the Fed always does what the markets dictate. If we go into the next Fed meeting with a 70% probability of a rate hike, and the CPI is in line with expectations or even exceeds them, and then the Fed does not raise rates, that would be an equal or even greater shock than the Fed raising rates itself .
Because it is unprecedented. And I have to be honest, there are a lot of other things happening in the markets that are making me nervous right now. And one of the most important is the "triple witch ", which will take place on September 18. This is the largest "triple witch" in history, with individual stock options, index options, and index futures expiring on the same day.
This "triple witch" event is estimated at $9.6 trillion. The previous record was in June of this year, a few months ago, and it was $7.7 trillion . Five days after the last " triple witch" the S&P fell 8% in five days. And you can see it here on the screen. And I recognize that "triple witch" events are typically neither "bullish" nor "bearish," they simply amplify whatever movement is happening in the market.
But even beyond the " triple witch", even beyond the potential Fed rate hike, which I think is the biggest short-term catalyst, we have a bunch of other problems. First, obviously, we're likely to get a rate hike unless the consumer price index is very low tomorrow. Second, the war in Iran just doesn't end, right?
So the problem with all of this, and the reason we're betting on a Fed rate hike, is simply that the war in Iran is not going to end. Oil continues to rise in price, and the oil shortage continues to grow. Donald Trump said last night that he believes the war with Iran will end after the midterm elections.
But secretly, Trump's inner team is discussing the possibility that the war in Iran will not end by the end of his term. I think we're past the point where Trump can make decisions here. And if that's the case , even if Trump wants to end the war, he may not be able to do so. And this is a very big problem for the markets.
Third, if the Fed raises rates, I don't think they will give a clear signal that this was a one-time move. The Fed, under Kevin Warsh, adheres to the idea that they should not communicate with the markets. Well, the lack of communication with the markets will mean that the Fed's decisions will depend on economic data.
So, logically, if the Fed raises rates, they won't assure you that it was a one-time event. If we get just one raise and the Fed says, "Yeah, that's it. We're done." That would actually be communication, and the Fed is currently opposed to any communication. Stocks would have risen sharply on this , even despite the rate hike.
But most likely, the Fed will come out, raise rates and say, "We depend on the data. We will do what the data tells us." And in that case, markets will begin to price in repeated Fed rate hikes. And look, all of this can change because of one headline. Even if we get a strong CPI report tomorrow morning , on Monday a Fed official could appear on ABC News or Kevin Warsh could say we don't need to raise rates now.
That is, anything can happen. We've seen this before under Jerome Powell, but we can't count on it . Fourth, the Houthis are close to controlling the Bab el- Mandeb Strait . Not sure if I pronounced it correctly, but they are taking over coastal towns and cities right on the border of the strait. At any moment they could declare it closed and start attacking ships, and that would be a huge problem.
Oil is worth almost $100 a barrel and shows no signs of stopping. In Thorpe says that artificial intelligence will destroy the world. Plus, we have a "triple witching" next Friday with the Fed meeting, and bond yields are soaring. Scott Bessant's rescue plan effectively failed. 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds are reaching some of the highest interest rates we've seen in decades.
So right now, I'm not nervous about just one thing. This combination of all these factors makes me feel a bit anxious. And even in a hypothetical scenario, if inflation turns out to be low tomorrow and we don't see a rate hike, if the price of oil continues to rise, the Fed will be forced to raise rates at its next meeting .
Today is October 28th. So to some extent, the question arises: will the Fed raise rates next week? Or will they raise them in October? If we don't see a rate hike next week, it will effectively just be postponing the problem. After all, until the war with Iran ends, oil will remain expensive and put pressure on the Fed, forcing it to raise rates at some point.
Again , I am cautiously optimistic. I keep some "powder in the powder kegs" ready to buy out a correction if it happens. At the same time, I remain invested in the market. I'm just a little slower to buy on the dip. For example, even though the markets fell today and some stocks have been going down in recent days, I'm in no rush to spend a significant portion of my capital right now.
I save most of it . But none of this really changes my view of 2027 . I really think 2027 will be a very strong year for the stock market, especially for AI software, robotics, automation, and cybersecurity. These are my main ideas for next year. In addition, it is worth paying attention to cyclical companies.
Cyclical stocks, the travel sector, non-AI industrial companies, non-AI financial companies, and I think healthcare. They will also show better results. I also have to mention another risk that I have n't talked about yet in this video. Just add it to everything else. This is due to the midterm elections: we are now betting on a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
And while there are arguments between Democrats and Republicans about AI and data centers, the vast majority of criticism comes from Democrats who are trying to limit and slow down the development of AI, especially given the recent news broadcast in the world media yesterday that Anthropic researchers are warning about the threat of AI to the world, claiming that the probability of this in the next decade is over 10%.
If the projections for Democratic victories in the House and Senate hold, and that doesn't change until the war with Iran is over, which, again , seems unlikely right now, it could put pressure on AI- equipment stocks, a key component of the S&P and Nasdaq, right up until the midterm elections themselves.
After all, if Democrats take control of the Senate and House of Representatives , there could potentially be bills and actions that would slow down the development of AI. And that will put pressure on the broader markets, although it doesn't really hinder or inhibit the areas that I believe in very much, right?
AI software, cybersecurity, robotics, and automation—these industries, you know, will continue to grow. They are not very affected by the resistance to data centers that we are currently seeing. So, I think this is more of a problem for indexes. And this is one of the reasons why I am more optimistic about the diversification of trade in the mentioned areas over the next 12–24 months.
Honestly , as I've said on this channel for a long time, I think the hardware development phase for AI is already saturated. I think we all understand what this opportunity is. The performance has been great, and to some extent, when you become as successful as Nvidia and many other AI hardware stocks, your success turns against you, right?
Every time Nvidia releases a stunning report, people say, “Well, great, but when will this end?” » So, I don't think we'll be back to the AI hype cycle anytime soon . So, these are just my thoughts on the matter . I believe we are in a more dangerous environment, especially if your portfolio is 100% invested, you don't have any "stocks" in reserve, or if you are fully invested in options or something like that.
I don't think this is the market situation where you should bet everything on just one direction. Especially if you use short-term derivatives like options, right? Now is not the time for this. I also don't think now is the time to hedge 20% of your portfolio. I don't think it's worth keeping 20% of your portfolio in put options right now.
This is also not the right market situation. Again, this is just my personal opinion, I am not a financial advisor. Do as you see fit. If you want to trade and invest with us, where I point out asymmetric opportunities, invest in them and act. Stocks that , in my opinion, are significantly undervalued.
I want to find stocks that Wall Street is wrong about before they realize it themselves . And there are many of them now. And if we see a correction over the next few weeks, even more such opportunities will emerge . And we will take full advantage of them. It is thanks to this that our trading community has had almost 91% profit since the beginning of the year.
It's been an amazing year, but I believe the best days are yet to come. A bold thought. So again , share your thoughts on . And also support the video before you leave. Have a great evening, see you in the next video.
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