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What a bar we see to open up on Monday. My goodness. My goodness. My goodness. All the time we spent in here looking at the price action saying how nothing bearish is showing here while a bunch of people are just saying bearish things. Those things form into squeezes and you have to recognize when price action is the most important thing and we realize that.
So thank you. Thank you. Thank you. If you're subscribed to this channel. Look at the gap up straight out of the zone using it to retest right now and boom ending at the high of day. But maybe going into tomorrow we need to seriously talk about a pullback and I have been doing a lot of work since we closed down that live stream at the end of today.
We will have more live streams tomorrow if you want to join us in the morning and in the afternoon. But I've been doing my due diligence because something is not adding up here and maybe we were right to call out that after options expiration you can see something ugly. So let's get into it. That was the SPX but we need all our fun lines on there, right?
You're not a technical analyst unless you have more lines on your chart. Okay, we're getting those lines coming in. Uh you are reacting into the top side zone very, very briefly here reacting outside the weekly expected move early on in the week which means what? 68% chance to close back down into these areas by the end of the week.
That's right. By the end of the week. So you can do a lot up here but 68% of the time it will close down. One thing I wanted to point out is you still have OPEX, right? We've been mentioning OPEX for about a week, maybe a week and a half now. OPEX I do believe they want a strong close into options expiration based on what we have seen going into the first part of May.
Based on what we've seen going into the first part of May, it has overall been a bullish trend. So I would assume Wall Street wants the highest prices for that option expiration but we will read into these shorter time frames today looking at the two-hour chart. We're actually going to revisit the two-hour chart in a moment.
What I wanted to talk about was the 30-minute and give you guys some daily expected moves. Uh right away here we see to the upside 589.43 to the upside in red your daily expected moves 57655 to the downside. Some key things here is or are we have the decision-making area. Thank you to my Patreon members who came to the live show and just said, "Hey, thank you so much for putting out that video for bringing me back, right?
Reeling me in." Because you can get really excited about these times and I just want you guys to make sure that we're having a level head. And I even explained how What did I do? Oh, I woke up early because I was I was My body was excited, so I woke up early and I was like, "I'm I'm too excited. If I trade like this, it's not going to be a good time." So, I went to the gym.
I worked out some of that stuff, had a nice breakfast, and then I made that Patreon video for you guys to suggest, "Hey, maybe do the same because this is a decision-making area, especially I would say on the first move." If we keep extending this move, you are in for a mean pullback going into options expiration.
I will say that. But, we can read into these daily expected moves. We notice that we are getting closer and closer to the monthly. We'll see if we're able to continue squeezing there. But, what is the most probable thing for tomorrow? The most probable thing for tomorrow is to get a pullback. Now, you do have a daily expected move down in these areas.
Uh we have CPI. I don't see how no one is trying to like overall price in anything bad happening with CPI at all, which I think is very interesting to me. So, what I'm really paying attention to is if we can come retest 570 all the way down to 564. If we can come retesting into these levels tomorrow, that would be a good thing.
We had the volatility up today by 16%. We will go over that in a moment, but it was up by more than what? 10%, which means to us that the market, the spy, has an 85% chance to see a down day in the next two trading sessions. So, if you missed out on this entire move, I would say be patient because tomorrow is your very likely day to see some kind of pullback, whether that's to the down in the downward direction and maybe we take a couple of days to figure our stuff out, or if that's going to be in one swoop down to here and we just see that curl up into positive territory.
So, going into tomorrow, the most probable thing is you are going to see this MACD roll down, and at some point, maybe even by the end of the day, you'll see that bad boy able to rotate back up in the upward direction, or at the open on Wednesday, or Wednesday morning. Okay, so these are some things we're watching.
Now, what would that cause? That would potentially cause some problems going into OPEX, and this is the timing of it that I'm not really understanding. why I was looking at charts so much. Even if we dipped all the way down, we saw something surprising, we go all the way down to say 570, 569, and you curl up here because this trend is very likely to continue, you can run into some serious traps at these levels for the bigger 2-hour pullback.
Now, if we kind of time this out in a certain way, this would lead us to a downside move on Friday, and maybe we see that extend on Friday. We see some upside, and then we're actually able to exceed that on Monday, setting the actual real trap, the real trap on Monday. Because we are still looking for what?
The sell in May and go away type of situation. I still do believe that the psychology side of the market, and the way that this is shaping up right now, is we are going to eventually see a daily pullback. And something that can be really used at these times for that daily pullback would be OPEX, would be Vix expiration, it would be the mentality in May of sell in May and go away.
And so, I actually did want to give you guys this a little bit early and just say, "This is what I'm going to be looking for over the next few trading sessions." See if we see a trap going into options expiration, or just like one or two, maybe like one day after that Monday or something like that. So, I'll be paying attention to that stuff further on into the future.
the 2-hour chart, just so you're aware, you have violated all the divergence on the 2-hour, which is suggesting that this will continue. Okay, this will continue. And what is the way, right? Let's remind ourselves real quick at the end of the spy here, how do we break down? Well, at this point we would have to break this low right over here.
Probably see a reaction, then roll that move to break through 545. And if you break through 545 and you see some kind of lip on that, watch out because these are where the market is starting to shift down on the 30-minute. This is how the 30-minute starts to go negative, and this curl down over here is what starts to shoot the two-hour down in the negative direction, right?
So, we're still going to be aware of the way that this thing goes bearish, understanding more so that this has a serious bullish tilt at this point, and the most probable thing for the spy tomorrow is to see a 30-minute pullback. And if we do see continued upside and it just keeps squeezing, squeezing, squeezing like this, we have our monthly expected move that keeps us from making any kind of serious mistake like chasing some kind of move.
Once again, the reason that I'm paying attention to if we just want to squeeze to the upside in some way is because look at that daily move right by the monthly move for the Qs. 514.55 is your daily expected move. Your monthly expected move is right by it 514.24. So, you know, this is where for the month of May it says take your foot off the gas, and you are almost at it now.
I think we will get there, and I think that this is is um kind of like I think bait. I I really think that all-time highs, uh right? All-time highs for the spy and and the Qs going up to like this type of level, I think these things are bait right now, but I think we will get there. And I think we would more so get there after some kind of 30-minute pullback in some way, right?
Show us the way lower, maybe going into say Wednesday, and we see that surge on Thursday. We'll have to find out how this is going to shape up. Or for tomorrow, maybe I should just pay attention to 501.15. If we can dip down into that area, take our time with it, right? Throughout most of the day, we actually could see that curl up at at end of the day and keep this nice and tight.
Now, what would be a great thing for the market though? Retest down towards 492 for the Qs. Just see some kind of move like this early on in the day, right? Just see it spike down. Honestly, see it go like this and then just keep going for an hour and a half and then build that thing back up because what you'll do is you'll curl over with those first red bars and then you'll start to see it flatten out with the other ones and then we'll start curling up into positive territory.
That's more how I see us making a new high for the time being, but I still want to be aware if this thing just goes up and up and up. I have my yellow line to keep me from making any kind of silly decisions at this point. Very, very good stuff. But it's it the timing of it is, you know, we were we were looking like, oh, we could we could see some kind of bigger daily pullback going after OPEX.
This could leak into next week from what I see, but I'm going to be seriously paying attention to the price action and make sure and make sure to update you guys. So, Patreon members, make sure you do have your notifications on in case we do get a random update video from me a few times this week. Once again, on the 2-hour, violating the divergence for the 2-hour.
Perfect. That's exactly what we want to see. It's exactly what we talk about. And uh now we're noticing what? Well, we're up here. We're way up there and and we really would like to retest what? Some key levels, right? 493, 492 would be fantastic. We see that happen without curling down the 2-hour. It's kind of quick.
Then we curl to the upside. Then maybe maybe this is all you get, right? to be seriously aware of any kind of trap that could be forming um on as far as when we get to something like a monthly expected move. We will be treating it seriously with the inclination like, hey, this all can continue over time if we're seeing the 2-hour pullback.
By the way, this 2-hour pullback, I really like the filling of this gap. So, maybe I'm reading into it too far. It's just the way that this is timing out. I really wanted to see if that thing would rotate down. If I get the rotation down, I'm starting to understand what's going on here a lot more. So, we'll pay attention to it.
So, for now, I guess the main thing to pay attention to for tomorrow is just going to be does the 30-minute keep scaling up here for some kind of rug pull going into the next trading session or so, or do we see the 30-minute give us those nice curves, right? Those nice curves that tell us when that 2-hour pullback is coming and we're very likely to fill this gap at that point.
Yeah, there are some things that are causing some turbulence in the market. And one of those things being the 10-year yield just seeing a massive move to the upside there. So, this will see some reactions tomorrow. We were trying to read into TLT. We talked about how it'd be a risk-reward play. Just ask during the live show tomorrow.
We can maybe talk about it further. But something I like to see was the fact that HGX was showing that upside. But one thing about HGX is notice it's reacting into the top of the block. It's not getting above there like the SPY. So, very interesting there. High yield growth as well seeing a nice little breakout, but is it getting above the high?
No. So, the SPY and the Qs might be getting a little excited here and that's all I wanted to point out in this portion before we get into volatility. Volatility absolutely massive move down. Where are we paying attention? Right around that 1683 again, right? That that important level that I just mark off, right?
These are just levels that I always have on my VIX chart because I see reactions a lot of the time around those key levels, especially when you get to 1212. It's a very, very good level to pay attention to with obviously 20 and and 36 and things like that. Um the gap fill. Notice we gapped through the gap fill.
So, you are very likely to see like price action take you through this. So, I think that's very interesting and that's where I wanted to bring up the fact that CPI actually comes out before market open tomorrow. Now, we are supposed to see a slight increase in the core inflation rate. Core inflation rate month over month that is.
Core inflation rate year over year is supposed to remain pretty good, but the inflation rate month over month, inflation rate year over year are both supposed to increase a little bit. So, we'll see that reaction and the 10-year yield is suggesting higher prices and TLT is not at the monthly move yet.
So, just want to be aware if the daily starts to really scale up here, right? We can come fill this gap and I think that's perfectly fine. We might end up seeing a gap fill, but you don't have major, major reversal signals from the 30-minute even from the 2-hour now. You just don't have it. So, you are very likely to see like a 30-minute big reaction from volatility and people really read into things and then it's just going to do what?
It's just going to like fail, right? Maybe it comes all the way to gap fill. I'm kind of doubtful on that. I think we see some kind of move to the upside, then we curl back down, then we see that 2-hour start to really kick in. For what? Well, the 2-hour to get some kind of bounce. You've gotten rid of all of the divergences down here on the VIX for the RSI.
And so, this is overall leading us to believe that yes, the 30-minute is the main thing to pay attention to and a 30-minute pullback is the most probable with the awareness that after that 30-minute makes one more move to the upside, I would seriously be on guard if divergence forms for a 2-hour move up to potentially fill that gap that we just left behind today.
I would really take into consideration that portion right there. I did want to just say thank you for joining the live streams today. We've had some great live streams lately, okay? Let's keep it going. We had We only had one troll come in in the whole like last couple weeks we've been doing the live show at the end of the day, adding more, adding more live shows for you guys.
So, that's just fantastic. Like that's great. And no, like if someone is annoying in the chat, if someone, you know, be respectful and at the same time, if you are one of those type of people, go get a life, go do something else. You're just going to get banned. Goodbye. So, I really wanted to put out something helpful for you guys and I am reading into this more and more.
I need to see more price action, but for now, going into tomorrow, the main thing is have those daily expected moves, maybe look at the reaction to CPI, and then if I'm not in this move and I want a little 30-minute trade, I think you're likely to see one when this 30-minute MACD is able to curl back up into positive territory, right?
You are well into positive territory, you should not be fearful of some kind of massive drop. If the massive drop is going to come, you already know those rules to kind of look for that negative trend to go into. For now, it looks like even if we see something surprising and you go all the way down to like 570 or 569, maybe 568, uh you will turn back up into positive territory and go grab that up in here.
Uh that's where we'll start to watch out a little bit uh further. So, thank you guys so much for being a part of this community. Thank you guys for joining me today. I will be live in the morning to hang out with you guys, look at stocks with you guys, see how the price action's behaving, but right now we know that this was a decision-making area, so hopefully you're just sitting back enjoying those profits and waiting for the next good trade to set up.
A good person who trades like water, right? And understands there's a big rock tomorrow and I don't have enough info right now to say, "Ooh, short sounds like a good idea." So, maybe I'm just going to relax for a little bit, eat some pizza, and go touch some grass or something. Hey, thank you guys so much for being a part of this community.
Thank you guys for liking, subscribing, and doing all that stuff all the time. Thank you guys for the donations during the live stream. You guys are just fantastic and I appreciate you every single day. So, I'll see you in the morning and I just hope to be helpful. All right, guys? Peace out.
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