저자: Mizuno · 한국인
요약 보기
TQQQ가 8월 고점 대비 약 48% 하락한 상황에서 기술주 밸류에이션(PER 18.66, S&P500 PER 19 등)을 분석. 금리 인상 여지로 추가 조정(10~15%) 가능성을 언급하며 기술주는 아직 고평가/추가 하락 가능성이 있다고 봄. RSI 30 부근에서 지지선이 형성되고 있으나 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락 우려. 10년물 금리는 6월 저점 이후 하락 반전 조짐, 유가 하락으로 인플레 둔화 신호 제시. 결론적으로 소량 분할 매수나 단기 매매는 고려 가능하나 레버리지 리스크 주의, 연준 금리인상 중단 시점 이후 진입이 더 안전하다고 제안.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Mizuno. Recently, TQ has dropped by almost half from its August high. Today, I will analyze whether now is a good time to buy. Recently, investor activity has started to change slightly. If you look at the screen, this is the ranking of overseas stock trading history for the past week.
You can see that TQ is currently in first place, Tesla in second, and SQQ in third. Just a week and a half ago, SQQQ was in first place and TQQ was in second. This indicates that investors have started to slightly shift their investment direction because TQQ has fallen so significantly. First of all, you can consider TQQ to be three times the value of QQ, so it is very important to know what is included in QQQ.
Looking at the current holdings, Apple is 11%, Microsoft is 10% , Amazon is almost 8%, and Google is also about 8% if you combine Classy and Classy. You can view it that way, and then it is an ETF composed of Facebook, Tesla, Nvidia, PayPal, Adobe, and other tech stocks. So, let's start with tech stocks.
Although valuations have dropped significantly, given the sharp decline in tech stocks, I am going to analyze whether there is a reasonable price for these stocks now or if they are still overvalued. It is true that the P-ratio has fallen considerably recently. It is currently at 18.66, a level that is close to that seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2018.
However, the COVID-19 period was an exception; it can be seen as a "Phoenix" event triggered by a once-in-a-century pandemic. The 2018 low was actually due to a severe economic slowdown, and companies like Nvidia had poor earnings at the time. As the Fed began raising interest rates, a market crash ensued.
Even then, the P-ratio had dropped to around 17.5 to 18. However, the market has not yet reached that level. When calculating valuations based on interest rates, the Fed only raised them to 2.5% back then, whereas now they are being viewed as ranging from 4.25% to 4.75%. From that perspective, you should definitely leave open the possibility of a further decline.
I think it will work. You can consider the SAP 500 and TQQ to move with almost the same correlation, but you can view their volatility as being about four times higher than the S&P. Now, looking at the next step, I’d like to analyze the P/E ratio of tech stocks. It might be a bit difficult to understand, but I will explain it as simply as possible.
As you can see, the current S&P 500 is 19. However, considering the probability of interest rate hikes, I think there is a possibility that the P /E ratio could drop to around 16, even in a worst-case scenario. In that case, many experts say that tech stocks should typically be about 30% more expensive than the S&P average.
Since tech stocks are companies that investors look to the future, you can assume that their P/E ratios are bound to be somewhat higher. However, currently, you can see that the P/E ratios for Microsoft and Apple are around 24. Now, there is a weakness in P/E analysis. If growth potential is good, the P/E ratio is bound to go up.
I will explain that as well, but in my opinion, looking at a sub-growth rate of 10% to 15%... I personally think around 20 to 21p is a reasonable range. Now, if you look at the screen, these are the current P/E ratios. As you can see, Microsoft and Apple are currently very expensive; you can view both as being between 24 and 25.
Google is between 18 and 19. As you can see, Amazon and Tesla are holding very high premiums. In Tesla's case, since its growth rate is very strong, I believe it is dissolving its high premium. As for Amazon, they invest a significant amount of their earnings, so you can consider it one of the companies that is very difficult to analyze using P/E valuation.
However, when calculating P/E ratios based on next year's projected earnings, Microsoft has dropped significantly to 20. Apple is at 23, and Google has fallen from 18 to 17. This implies that Google's growth rate next year is not expected to be that strong, because it is an advertising-focused company.
Since its growth rate is currently somewhat weak, you can consider its P/E ratio to be low. Also, as you can see, I expect the P/E ratios of Tesla and Amazon to drop by almost half. And as you can see, you can confirm how low the PE ratios are for energy companies, financial stocks, and some semiconductor stocks.
Companies with low P ratios, good prospects, and strong growth rates can be considered currently undervalued. In any case, interest rates are expected to rise a bit more in the future, and from a valuation perspective regarding tech stocks, I think it would be safer to invest while expecting a correction of about 10%, or even 15% if things go badly.
Now, however, I would like to analyze this from a technical perspective as well. If you look at the screen, this is TQ. As you can see, there was only one time this year when the RSI dropped this much. That was during the market crash in early January. At that time, stocks were extremely overvalued, and since they suddenly collapsed as interest rate hikes began, there was a subsequent additional decline, so I think it was somewhat of an exception.
In this case, after hitting almost 70, the RSI has now hit exactly 30, and you can see that a support level has recently started to appear. To show you this part in a bit more detail—it was hard to see clearly because it overlapped with the trading volume—if you look at this section, what is a support level?
We can view this as the stock market starting to rise slightly now, as buyers have been winning a little after a fierce battle between sellers and buyers following a sharp decline. Of course, if this level is broken due to speculation caused by news, you may need to prepare for further declines. For example, if PC data comes out negative again this Friday, investors might view it negatively and drive the stock price down.
Now, zooming out to show you, there have been a few major drops recently. On this day, the market fell after the Fed made hawkish announcements at Jackson Hole, followed by continued declines. Then, there were additional drops for several days due to bad CPI data. After that, the Fed raised the index by 75 points and maintained hawkish rhetoric, causing the market to fall for a few more days.
Now, a support level has been established. Therefore, if news causes a decline and the key level breaks, further drops could follow. I believe you must keep this in mind and invest while managing leveraged risk. Now, I would like to share a few positive points and my conclusion to wrap up. If you look at the screen, the 10-year bond yield and This is TQQ.
Interestingly, the point is that bond yields peaked and began to decline precisely at the June low level. This is a very important point. You can think of it as bond yields and TQQQ moving almost in the exact opposite direction. As of today, September 28th, bond yields have fallen significantly for the first time in a long while.
Last time, when bond yields rose in a bubble-like fashion and then bad candlesticks started appearing, they fell sharply, and stock prices actually began to rebound. Therefore, going forward, it will be very important to watch whether bond yields break the 12-hour average and a downtrend emerges. However, looking at the probabilities right now, I don't think that is highly likely because the Fed is so volatile.
But since the stock market has many variables, no one knows exactly what will happen. Also, to give you some positive news, oil prices are currently in a downtrend and falling significantly overall. Because the Fed is raising interest rates so quickly, we expect oil demand to decrease significantly.
Accordingly, looking at the current leading data, inflation It has definitely started to look like it is gradually coming down. Of course, I think there is a bit of a problem because I am judging the current policy based on lagging data like CPI or PC. However, since there is a downward trend to this extent, I view this data as being from the CPI.
Consequently, I expect interest rate hikes will eventually stop at some point. So, to wrap up, when analyzing using Validation, it still seems a bit expensive, especially considering the rate hike process is set between 4 and 5. However, it is currently significantly oversold, and support levels are starting to appear.
Therefore, I would n't object to you buying little by little to accumulate shares, or treating it as a short-term trade to take profits once it rises to a certain level. However, there is risk involved, and the stock market right now is full of variables. If you want to invest in TQ more safely, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to enter the market when the stock price drops further around the time the Fed stops raising interest rates. That concludes today's analysis. Thank you very much for watching.
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