저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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현재 미국 경제는 부유층 중심으로 강하지만 서민은 취약하며 중국 성장은 둔화될 것. 중앙은행의 통화 증발이 계속되어 귀금속 가격은 상승할 것이며 금 보유 수요가 늘 것으로 봄. 자금이 미국 대형 기술주에서 가치주·신흥국으로 이동하는 전환점에 있다고 보며, 원자재는 전쟁 가능성과 인도 수요로 장기 상승 추세, 신흥국 중 홍콩·인도네시아·베트남·태국 등은 저평가로 선호. 암호화폐 열풍은 끝나가는 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
I would to be taking a bet that this is a correction in precious metals and that they will go up more. It may take 6 months, it may take a year, but I think that the central banks are dominated by people who believe that you can with money printing boost economic growth regardless of Mr. Wolf's views.
And so the money printing will go on. Number two, inflation is a very difficult concept to understand. When prices of homes go up, when prices of stocks go up, they say it's a bull market. When the prices of groceries go up, you know, you go to the store and you buy toilet paper or toothpaste and so forth.
When that goes up, then you say it's inflation. But it's the same, it comes from money printing. It's just one time the money printing goes, the printing money goes into homes and another time it goes into commodities, another time into wages and so forth, depending on the fashion and [clears throat] the social media that channels money.
So in the last few years, a lot of money flowed into cryptocurrencies. I think this is more or less over, but I wouldn't short them. But I think that most people don't own much gold. You go to a cocktail party and people will say, "Well, we own gold." And then they you ask, "Well, how much?" "Well, we got the few coins from our grandmother or an earring from the grandmother or something like this." But not I own 20 kilos or 50 kilos of gold.
There's not many people have that. And I think a lot of people, they no longer trust the essential banking system. They know that something is wrong when rich people becomes richer and the poor don't move ahead. In that environment, I think people will say, "Okay, I have $100 million in cash or 50 or 1 million, and I want 10% of that in something that is 100% safe.
Never mind the price, but I want to hold it physically." Because a bank deposit, you're lending money to a bank. The money is in the bank and the deposit that it repays you depends on the bank's ability to repay you and willingness. But gold, you own it. And so I think more and more people will buy gold.
So my view is that the price will go up. And I think, you know, we have in economics business cycles and economic cycles and price cycles, the most famous is the Kondratiev and the Kuznets and the Juglar cycle and the Kitchen. But we also have war cycles and the conditions for war today are very good.
I'm not saying World War III will break out, but it is more likely to break out now than any time in the last 50 years. I do fundamental analysis of macroeconomic data around the world. So I'm following what the economists are doing and so forth, but I also do technical analysis. In other words, I look at factors that are also economic factors, but they have an impact directly on stock prices.
Like you have liquidity in the world. Where does the liquidity flow to? US stocks, emerging markets, Europe, gold, silver, coal or food? It doesn't flow evenly. It flows into this corner and then into that corner of the world and so forth. And the last few years, the money flowed to the US. Let's not discuss for hours why it went to the US, but the economic potential of the US was perceived to be better than elsewhere.
And so foreigners bought more and more US stocks, there was heavy foreign buying. And the locals, because the market went up, they borrowed money to buy stocks and they bought options to entitle them to buy stocks. So the system became quite leveraged and based on these factors, foreign buying, margin debt, corporate profits, money printing and so forth and so on.
The technical picture of the market is not good because the market was driven in the last few years, especially after 2022, I'd say 20 stocks, the FAANG stocks and then the semiconductors. But the rest of the market didn't move. And emerging markets and Europe grossly underperformed the US since 2010.
So the US went up and the emerging markets went down as well as Europe. And we had the move of money into high-tech and AI and so forth and semiconductors. And now I think we are turning points, you understand? That the money will flow out of Nvidia and Tesla and so forth and it will go into value stocks and emerging markets.
And last year is the first year since the financial crisis in 2008-2009, where emerging markets and Europe grossly outperformed the US. They performed much better. And many stocks, so-called value companies, among them say banks and especially mining companies, they significantly outperformed the S&P 500.
And they can print money. And yes, the stock market may recover and go up, but as you know, since year 2000, the stock market compared to gold has gone down. This is the issue here. They can print money and in nominal terms, maybe stocks go up, but they don't go up as much as gold. This would be my view.
You see there two situations that we need to consider. Say in 1980, gold and silver peaked out as well as oil. And then we had in the late '70s a boom in mining stocks and throughout the '70s in oil because oil went from at the beginning in 1970, maybe less than $2 to close to $50 on the spot market in 1980.
So it was a bull market in oil and nobody talked about the Fed chairman at the time. They all talked about Sheikh Yamani. He was the head of OPEC. He was in the limelight all the time because everybody watched the oil price. And then after 1980, commodities went down and oil stocks crashed. They had been at the peak in 1980, 35% of the S&P 500.
And nowadays, they're around 5% of the S&P. But the money flowed out, but only after stocks across the board went down. In other words, the oil stock decline dragged down everything. We had a bear market from 1980 to 1982. In '82, stocks in America were no higher than they had been in 1964. And inflation adjusted, they were down 70%.
The same happened in Japan. I thought in '89 the stock market would crash in Japan and drag down the rest of the world. No, the money flowed out of Japan into the Nasdaq in America. It is conceivable that the money will flow out of the FAANG and tech stocks and semiconductors and move into other sectors or other markets or other asset classes.
As I said, we could move much more money out of stocks into gold, silver and platinum. Or we could move money out of stocks into agricultural commodities or oil, you understand? The money doesn't disappear. It may go somewhere else. Just today someone asked me that I had predicted in year 2000 a commodity supercycle, that commodities would go up, which they did because of the opening of China and the demand for commodities coming from China.
And the question today is, are we at the beginning of a huge increase in commodity prices? Now, commodity prices are funny that they obviously move according to money printing and they move because of demand. During war times, the demand for commodities goes up. And so usually commodities rally during war times.
And then you and I would have to analyze how likely is it that war breaks out around Iran or around Taiwan or around Venezuela. And my sense is that we have a president in the US that may go to war against Iran because also Israel wants to eliminate Iran or the leadership in Iran. And so I would not be short commodities.
I would rather tend to be long commodities that with the view that commodity prices will go up. On the other hand, and this is something that preoccupies me a lot and you hinted at it, the economy in the US is weak. It's not strong. The economy for the rich people is strong. The people that benefit from Wall Street going up and home prices going up and so forth, that is a strong economy.
But ordinary people, 50% of the population, or in America, 70% of the population lives paycheck to paycheck. In other words, to pay the bills, they have to receive the paycheck from the salaries from the companies they work for and so forth. Anyway, my view would be that the economy is weak and globally, China will no longer grow at 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% per annum.
It's out of the question. Why? Because they're highly leveraged already, a lot of debts, and more importantly, the population of China is shrinking, not expanding. Offsetting that, and that I admit, is the growth of India. And if you look at the oil consumption per capita in India, it's tiny compared to the US or tiny compared to Europe or Canada and so forth.
So, I think that will grow and support the demand. In general, I am not wildly optimistic about commodity prices because they go up a lot and then they correct like coffee or cocoa, but the trend is upwards. That is my belief. And I think oil is relatively inexpensive compared to other commodities and compared to the financial market.
If I look at emerging markets, some performed very well and some began to perform well. Latin American markets, including Brazil, are reasonably priced. I still like Hong Kong shares and Indo-Chinese shares, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and so forth. But you said an aggressive portfolio. I still have some aggression in on these markets and they're volatile, but I think they're reasonably priced.
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