저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
중앙은행 신뢰 부족으로 귀금속(금·은·백금)을 장기 보유 자산으로 선호한다고 밝힘. 미국 증시는 2026년 하락 가능성을 언급하며, 원유가 저평가 자산으로 귀금속·대형 기업·신흥국(태국 은행 등) 대비 상대적 우위를 주장. 미국 대형 기술주(엔비디아)는 고평가로 판단. 글로벌 경기침체 및 지정학 리스크(희토류 중국 통제) 언급.
다듬은 글
I'm an investor in precious metals out of conviction that central bankers are basically frauds who want to deceive the public and see to it that the purchasing power of money diminishes. And in my view, a responsible citizen must own for his cash instead of owning currencies the way currencies are such as the dollar and the euro and the whatever exists as a currency that is safe and maintains its purchasing power, they must own precious metals.
Now, I don't follow the markets like the silver market on a day-by-day basis and minute-by-minute basis because I own silver and I will never sell my silver. And I own gold and platinum and I will never sell them because as long as I see these clowns in central banks and supported by their troops of additional clowns in government, I'd rather own precious metals than anything else except maybe stocks.
But we have to define, you know, the relative attractiveness of stocks compared to precious metals etc. I think someone would have to make a very strong case for me to sell gold. He would have to prove to me that a central banker is of the quality of say Paul Volcker or the old school of central bankers that paid attention to the purchasing power of money.
The new central bankers basically want to boost asset prices and make sure that asset prices don't decline because they're afraid that the declining asset markets would destroy the economy, which is likely to be the case, but it doesn't justify the printing of money. My interest is I want to have an asset that over time maintains its purchasing power.
I'm not saying it will go up. Gold could go down by say 50%, but the Dow Jones could go down by 90%. So, in gold terms, I would have made money compared to the Dow Jones. You can become rich in a deflationary environment say you have assets of 100. Your neighbor's asset declined by say 80% and your assets declined by 50%.
So, you're relatively speaking richer than your neighbor. I think people should consider in what currency do they want to measure their wealth? I think the dollar is not a relevant currency in order to measure your real wealth because compared to say gold, an asset such as the S&P, and the S&P has performed fabulously over the last 20 years, but it hasn't performed as well as gold.
Well, this would be my view that whatever happens, you're better off in precious metals going forward than in home prices, in commercial properties, and in stocks, in US stocks. Now, someone may come up and say, "Well, but Nvidia has performed better than gold and so forth." Yes, one stock or the other stock may have performed better, but as you point out, an entire index that represents essentially to a large extent what individuals own has not performed particularly well against precious metals in the last few years.
I have very negative view about the global economy. We're ahead of a massive recession, but equally, we may have World War III. I can tell you that the rare earth metals, not all, but some, will go ballistic. The ones that are used in the defense industry, they are 95% controlled by China, by the way.
That's why the trade war with China really doesn't make any sense. Only a complete narcissistic person would engage in a trade war with China. But this is what the US president has done at the present time. Anyway, these rare earths, they're rare. I mean, China can stop exporting any of them, and then the defense industry in the western world collapses.
When interest rates are negative in real terms, in other say, inflation is 6% and your 10-year treasury is 4%, then you have negative real interest rates. In that case, the environment is relatively favorable for precious metals. When interest rates, say, would be 15% and inflation 8%, then the environment is relatively unfavorable for precious metals.
The measurement of price increases by the government is a fraud. That prices go up much more than the government is pretending and announcing through their CPI figures. But I'd like to remind you, in 2024 and at the beginning of 2025, people said, "This bull market is so unusual because the price of gold is going up, but the miners are lagging behind." I mean, you could have bought American battery until the summer without any price appreciation.
And suddenly, they move. And I'd like to remind you viewers, markets are very funny animals. They're largely unpredictable. Sometimes you have gold moving up and the gold shares move up less, but usually in a bull market the gold shares will move up more than the physical gold. That is the usual pattern.
Especially when you're in a friendly country like the US that may nationalize the miners one day. And the miners are not going to perform particularly well. And so we have to be also careful. There are miners, say if you owned mining companies in Russia, you lost essentially all your money after the Ukraine war.
At the beginning of 2025, in other words, a year ago, Goldman Sachs had a conference and then they asked the participants which market would perform the best and the majority of participants argued that the US would be the best performing market as it had been for most years since 2010. But as it happened, as you know, many emerging markets and the European markets have performed much better than the US in 2025 last year.
And we have to be very careful about the consensus that everything will go up. I think we may be in an environment where regardless interest rates go up or interest rates go down, it bad for asset prices, especially for US stocks. Emerging markets, in my view, are more attractive because the valuations are relatively low both in Latin America and in Southeast Asia.
I mean you take Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and so forth, the valuations are relatively low. So these markets may also go down if everything goes down, but go down less. I think the economic outlook in emerging markets is rather favorable, but we need peace. The peace is the precondition.
And one of my favorite asset classes, I mean people will say you're crazy and so forth, but I think Thai commercial banks are relatively attractively priced. Bangkok Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, Kasikorn, Krung Thai, and so forth. I think they're okay. Bloomberg had a survey of strategists and analysts and economists, and all of them were bullish about stocks for 2026.
This comes because for the last 10 years, US stocks have gone up every year. But it doesn't mean that it will continue. My view would be that 2026, the stock market in the US will go down. Now, how will it go down? Will it go down say from 40,000 to 20,000, or does it go down because the price goes from 40,000 to 50,000, but the currency collapses?
That we don't know. The US stock market is a colossal bubble, not the only one. There was other asset bubbles like residential real estate in some cities. But in general, if you ask Mark, "What do you regard as relatively safe?" Then I would say precious metals. I don't think they're particularly cheap.
You know, if you ask me about a cheap commodity, I would say oil. Crude oil is very cheap at the moment. And agricultural commodities are in general reasonably priced. You and I, we each put $100,000 into oil and silver. My view would be that the one who puts it in oil will be better off relatively speaking.
Let's assume silver collapses, then maybe oil also goes down, but not as much as silver. On the other hand, if silver continues its upswing, then I would think that oil will have an upward move. So, in either condition, I think oil will outperform. But, it could be that both go down, but one goes down less than the other.
I think the majors are not terribly expensive, and you can get maybe a dividend yield of around 5% at least you're paid while waiting. But, I also have some smaller companies and Latin American oil companies like Petrobras and Ecopetrol and Ma'aden, which is a Canadian company. And, it seems to me that they're reasonably priced.
And, it seems to me that companies like Rio Tinto and BHP and so forth and Vale in Brazil are also reasonably priced. But, it's not a guaranteed that the price will move up strongly, but I think say Nvidia and so forth, they're not reasonably priced, they're overpriced. This is my view. I think oil is a relatively inexpensive asset at the present time.
I don't think that gold is necessarily an inexpensive asset, but I find it difficult to identify anything that is cheap. I mean, you show me a office building in San Francisco or New York or Chicago, maybe the office building is down 80% from its high in 2018, and then I may tell you, yes, it's relatively cheap.
But, it could be that the world is changing and that people will no longer go to office buildings a lot, that they stay, like you can do your work out of your home. I can do my job out of my home in Chiang Mai in the north of Thailand, where I'm probably one of the very few people that invest globally.
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