저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 주식시장이 2022년 상반기 저점을 통과했을 가능성이 높으며 올해 신고가 경신 가능성이 더 크다는 낙관론. 시장 신호 측면: 최근 과도한 일간 1% 변동, 포지셔닝 등 정량 신호가 바닥을 암시하며, 주식시장이 거시 불안보다 더 강한 메시지를 보낸다고 주장. 금리곡선 측면: 장단기 금리차(10년-2년) 역전은 인플레이션 백워데이션을 반영한 것으로, 실질금리 곡선은 정상적이므로 역전 신호의 가중치를 낮춰야 한다고 주장. 2019년과 달리 2년 실질금리는 여전히 저렴하다고 봄. 반론 측면: Josh Brown은 이번 반등을 하락추세 속 약세장 반등(bear market rally)으로 보며 Tom Lee와 견해가 다름. 그는 VIX 20~30 구간에서 매수 준비를 하는 레짐 전략을 제시. 주택 측면: 주택건설업체 약세가 비정상적이며, 모기지금리 급등이 주택 활동과 GDP에 부담을 준다고 봄. 다만 소비자가 꺾였다는 결정적 증거는 아직 없다고 함. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 S&P500 5,000~6,000 범위를 제시하며 강세 유지. 리스크로는 금리 상승, 인플레이션, 수익 둔화를 언급.
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welcome back it's good to see you great to see you scott you say that stocks are quote whispering bottom what does that mean well i think stocks are communicating a very different message than the apparent macro that we're seeing because uh you know it's obvious there's inflation problems restoration hardware is making that pretty clear and we know the fed's quite hawkish and we know there's even commodity risk because of all this the russian ukraine war and so i i think in general we should be really cautious about the macro but at the same time the stock market is acting far more resilient than what we expect in fact uh over the past couple of weeks i think there's been a lot of quantitative signals that have really signaled bottom whether it's excessive one percent days or positioning and in the past it's always been better to listen to the market and i think it's really whispering pretty loudly that we fought yeah but i mean whispering implies that you're not ready to yell bottom what gets you there um well you know uh i think with each day that's passing we're a lot more confident that glib answer is if we make new highs then it's really validated that we've bottomed but so far you know we're above the 200 day it looks like we've broken the downtrend i'd love to see more strength from technology but scott i i would say i think it's you know our sort of view is we've probably made the low for the first half of 2022 on true 24 february 24th which is the day of the invasion and hopefully this all translates into the markets holding and then being very strong in the second half that's an interesting headline and that's what it's going to be we've probably made the low for the first half i think that's what people are going to hang on jonathan krinsky who i know uh you know of well put out a note this afternoon that said quote while we're nearing april historically a strong month for equities our sense is the recent rally has borrowed from some of those gains you agree with that uh again yeah i mean there's a lot of logic to what jonathan's saying because you know if we just think about how the next you know 20 trading days will look i don't think we're going to necessarily get positive uh developments because you know earnings might be challenged we're going to hear companies talk about supply chain issues and inflationary pressures but the stock market is is hanging in there pretty strongly and i think it's because you know institutional and retail investors sort of positioned for a recession in early march and now if we don't have one i think stocks have quite a lot of upside yeah but we're going to be on the clock the moment that the yield curve inverts right i mean you know that and that's going to start dominating the narrative so how do we get over that hump uh yeah the the yield version is a big deal because we know a lot of people are watching it and we know a lot of systems and algorithms are going to react to it but we did put a pretty big study out on it this morning that one of the reasons why you might have to modify or reduce how much weight you put on the yield curve is that the yield curve right now is is reflecting what we call inflation backwardation meaning if you look at the inflation curves okay which looks at the tips and nominal yields bond market yields have to reflect what the market's expecting for inflation and the market is expecting an inflation spike in the near term but in the out years pretty normal inflation that means that the sort of normal yield curve is going to be inverted but the real yield curve is actually quite normal that's something we highlighted in that's very different than o6 in 2019 because at that time the real cost of money okay adjusting for inflation actually didn't work the fed was indeed raised rates enough that real money turned expensive short-term today the real cost of money in the two-year is actually still very cheap compared to 10-year money and i think that charts actually is highlighting that look there are people who are clearly suggesting as well that if you're looking at the 210 spread the yield curve maybe you're looking in in the wrong place leastman and others have have made that point let's welcome in josh brown obviously from halftime into the conversation tom i'd like to do that so josh i mean if you look it's good to have you back if you look at the the rally utilities have been doing really well it's been very top-heavy led by apple and some of these other names does that cast any doubt over the the substance of this rally how valid if you want to use that word it actually is the rally was pretty textbook technically speaking the stocks that had been beaten up the most were the ones that led uh the advance i wouldn't say they bottomed first but they definitely put on the fireworks show and a lot of that is now being unwound you have arc off four percent peloton down nine roku shop roblox teledoc all the names you would expect to be the worst performers when the trend resumes the primary trend resumes are the worst performers when i talk about primary trend versus counter trend it's not jargon the primary trend for most stocks in the market is down has been since last february by the way most stocks not all stocks and not the biggest stocks but for most stocks they peaked over a year ago and they've been in a downtrend that the counter trend is what we just experienced over the last week where they've been having this rock and roll rally it's it's it's falling apart pretty quickly you lose three days in one day and that's very very textbook very typical of how a bear market rally ends in the meantime what's the prevailing trend what's the real trend wti up three percent today um look at the energy stocks rocking uh look at consumer discretionary underperforming this is what the real trend is and i would tell you one other thing so it's actually not complicated it's it's actually not complicated to be in this market right now i think i i think if you think about the vix as like the simplest shorthand for how people are behaving we're in a fairly well defined range we're in a vix regime where whenever you see us 28 29 get your buy list ready because that's overdone and then when you see us down it we we hit 18.9 yesterday on the vix um that's pretty much as good as it's gotten and that's been the case since march 2020 this new vix regime so it's not that complicated it's it's kind of judge it's kind of like god i i feel like we have a a distinct difference of opinion here on something that's important i've had tom lee just come out and suggest that the lows for the first half are in in in the market and i might also suggest that a first half that he had prior described as being treacherous and certainly he was correct i still hear you using the term bear market rally it sounds like you you think that's what this is and tom lee do you take issue with that is that what this is tom lee uh well we're in that no man's land zone where neither of you can be decided and we'll only have the answer if we make new highs i would probably say the higher probability in our minds is we're gonna make our way to new highs this year even before the first half so uh i would still view this as the market had a huge correction priced really you know more than 40 percent of stocks priced a pretty deep recession and and if we don't have that recession stocks are really better to buy josh and before i let tom go i want your rebuttal up to that why is his view wrong i actually don't think tom and i disagree um i'm give i'm giving you i'm giving you the range i'm not saying this has to get disastrously worse and i would never rule out us making a new high before the end of this year understand that stocks three out of four years finish the year up so i don't want to give you the impression that i'm telling you it's hopeless i'm giving you a very well-defined vix regime that's been in place now we're going into year three of this it works pretty well it won't work forever but remember we were in a 10 to 20 regime the vix would hang out at 10 11 cnbc.com would write articles about how traders can't make money on wall street right remember that and then you would get these spikes but the spikes would go to 20.
now it's a different game the fed is not on our side anymore they're removing liquidity they're rate they're hiking rates they're talking about hiking rates when they're not hiking rates so now it's 20 to 30. you saw the movie the irishman right so when the guy pulls out the gun in the courtroom and points it at al pacino and then his son comes running over and pulls what does he say he explains he explains when it's you know you charge when it's a gun when it's a knife you run right when the vix is under 20 you already know that you're at the more placid end of the pool it's not going to last long but when you're back at 28 29 30 which is where we were right around march 14th march 15th before the fed that's when you have to be doing your buying you have to buy something so this is not about taking your portfolio to fully invested xero it's just about being aware this is the environment i wish it were other but it's not it's not that bull market it's not that low volatility grind higher it is not that it's this i don't know ed yard jenny today on the half tom lee our condit our conclusion is that this is still a bull market that's what he said 5 000 to 6 000 is his range on the s p and this is a guy who was talking not two weeks ago about stagflation today he made the point with me on the halftime report that even if you have stagflation that the stock market can go up in the face of that i feel like everybody is now trying to make a more bullish case when not all that much has changed in the last couple of weeks well uh yeah scott i mean and i heard that interview it was really useful uh you know first of all the real cost of money tenure is still negative because 10-year inflation break-evens are higher than where the nominal is so it should argue for pe expansion but i think compared to chilesco the market had a huge test because uh we had i think a lot of negative developments and headlines over the last two weeks and instead of the market falling further it was kind of revealed that people had positioned really for already a lot of this and markets have been really resilient so i i would say it's another reason why i think the market is with spring we've already bought them maybe more than we're talking about do you see tom do you do you see a signal in what's going on with the home builders um because i've been spotlighting this on the show all year these stocks i think are important economically right they're not gigantic market caps but the itb names the xhb names i think they i think there is a signal there and tom i know a lot of your bullish thesis has been predicated on household formation demographics and obviously when young families buy homes it prolongs the expansion we might have just seen the bottom in housing inventory for the cycle and the the mortgage rate 30-year mortgage weight has exploded in the last six weeks so what's your take on whether or not we should be looking at the home builders and at all concerned with how horrific those stocks have been uh yeah josh i'd agree housing really punches above its weight because uh housing activity itself is such a huge gdp contributor you know every 250 000 homes is almost three quarters of a community gdp and every new home build creates four full-time job equivalents uh and housing is certainly gonna have to pause here because rates are rising it's affecting affordability and anybody in the northeast knows that the market volatility has actually cut wealth so people are sort of taking a pause i do think that explains why the home builders are really weak when they should be seasonally very strong right now but i don't know if it's a decisive proof that the consumer's turning because again i think over the next month we'll have a better sense of the consumers getting weaker but so far they look pretty resilient yeah tom i got to let you go i appreciate your time so much and i know we'll talk to you again soon josh you're going to stick with me and i do want to drill down with you
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