저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 주식은 이미 리세션을 선반영했고 2022년 하반기 긍정적 서프라이즈가 나와 상승할 가능성이 크다. 시장 상황: 최근 반등은 숏커버링이 아니라 과도한 약세 포지션을 되돌리는 포지션 재조정이며, 2020년 4월·2009년 패턴과 유사하다고 봤다. 기관 현금 보유, 소비자 신뢰지수, 리테일 센티먼트가 2009년 수준으로 낮다. 경기·소비: 소비자 대차대조표는 양호하고(저소득 하위 2분위도 초과저축 12%), 부채 수준이 낮아 리세션을 피할 수 있다고 본다. 전쟁 등 위기 시기가 오히려 경제 성장에 긍정적일 수 있다. 인플레이션: 운송지수(Cass Freight Index)가 전년비 마이너스로 꺾여 상품 인플레이션은 둔화 중이며, 이 지표는 CPI를 약 6개월 선행한다. 인플레이션이 정점을 지나면 연준이 예상보다 덜 긴축할 수 있어 비둘기적 전개로 본다. 금리: 실질금리는 마이너스 상태로 기업 차입이 오히려 유리해 위험자산에 긍정적. 시장은 연준 7회 인상을 반영 중이나 인상 횟수가 줄면 긍정적이다. 기술적 분석가 Mark Newton은 10년물이 2.5% 부근에서 정점을 찍고 하락할 것으로 본다. 종목: 미국 주식이 가장 안전한 투자처이며 TINA(대안 없음)가 하반기에 강해질 것으로 봤다. FANG 계열이 고금리에도 피해가 적어 강세가 예상되고, 메타는 16배로 저평가로 봤다. 애플은 150달러 부근의 위험 구간을 벗어나 강하게 움직이고 있어 애플이 강하면 S&P500에 대한 약세 견해를 갖기 어렵다고 했다. 리스크: 임금 상승과 높은 차입비용이 기업 활동을 둔화시킬 수 있고, 주식의 40%가 약세장에 있는 점을 인정했다. 과거 낙관 전망이 지나쳤다고 시인했다.
다듬은 글
founder and head of research he is here as i said at post nine and it's great to see you in person yeah great to see you scott for what you said was your first in-person interview since 2019. that's right so uh you know for the last three years everything's been virtual well it's good to have you here and look you told me the other day you admitted that you've been a little too bullish at times on stocks but yet you sit here today and you continue to make the case that they can go higher uh yes i think stocks are definitely going through a very difficult period because we know the bond market is uh quite hawkish and the fed has to you know sort of meet market expectations there and we know that consumers gonna be taking a pretty big hit from commodities and fuel but if we avoid recession which is our belief then stocks have discounted more than a recession because when we look at investor positioning institutionally there they have more cash than they did in 09 consumer confidence is as low as it was in 09 and then if you look at retail sentiment it's as bad as 0 9.
so people are pricing in i think a calamitous scenario and that's when stocks can start to rally i mean isn't it just a matter of time though before earning slow before the consumer stops start spending less i mean how how can all of this not transpire in the kind of backdrop that we have extremely high inflation a hawkish fed et cetera et cetera et cetera yeah it's a great question and we won't know for a few months that's i think what stocks are going to sort of be worried about but isn't that the base case is that the base case that earnings are going to slow the consumer is going to slow the economy is going to slow by the very nature of what the fed is going to do that's exactly right but that's also why 40 of stocks are in a bear market so i think the market has now said over half of the s p should be d rated by 20 and we know that consumer balance sheets are in great shape you know goldman had a great report showing that even in the bottom two quintiles of income they have 12 percent excess savings right now and if consumer debt levels which are really low means you may not see a contraction even though prices are high so we could see a positive surprise coming out of the consumer and war times are generally good for economic growth so i actually think we could have some positive surprise in the second half so i think if as much people worry about things getting bad things could actually get better let's talk about this current rally that we've experienced today not notwithstanding what's it about are these real buyers is it reliable is it simply short covering bear market bounce what is it uh to me if i guess it feels like position squaring i think people got bearish uh went to cash and then they realized things are so bad that you have to be somewhat re-risked i don't think there's a lot of conviction i think today is an example that but we can see leadership too i mean basic materials is a structural long and then i think we're seeing as you guys were talking about some pretty good relative performance of things like fang so i think fang is going to be one of the groups that people realize doesn't get hurt by higher prices and the multiples have come in and in the second half they're going to be i think really strong stocks i mean if you talk about you know changing positioning that has a connotation with it that it's a longer lasting potential move this is not simply short covering it's literally people changing positions because they got too bearish that's right in fact uh you know ryan detrick actually has some great stats this looks a lot like the position squaring that took place on april 2020 and 2009 so in a way people got into a deep recession position they need to re-risk but then there's better resilience and then suddenly people want to buy stocks again i don't know for at that point you know might take a couple months but i think stocks are definitely surprising to the upside i think one of the principal parts of your narrative is that inflation as bad as it has been and as bad as it remains could be rolling over and you look at a freight index i want you to explain why that's important to you and why you flagged that as a principal thing you're looking at yeah um it's a little complicated but you know the inflation that we saw last year was due to supply chain glitches so let's say that was the event was uh movement of goods and cast freight index is a measure of of that because it skyrocketed well that's rolled over so sharply it's now a negative year-over-year and historically that leads cpi by six months so i think the goods inflation that we had hitting us last year is now diminishing this year what we're dealing with is now this spilling into services and now oil risk but if those actually start to plateau then we're sort of saying the inflation picture is probably a little better than the fed was worried about and that's kind of a dovish development what if i say okay but labor costs show no sign of slowing down and we know where borrowing costs are going to that's going to slow corporate activity yes uh ironically in a borrowing costs haven't risen as much as inflation so actually the cost of money has gotten cheaper this year so we're actually more negative real rates today if you borrow money you're buying it at negative five percent so it's almost positive for corporates to borrow money today because they can earn more money that's actually good for risk assets historically that's when stocks can actually see pe expansion so i as bad as it sounds it's actually marginally positive you need to make you need to make calls at times when the world seems uneasy you can't wait for the market to you know be at all-time highs to say yeah i i said we're going higher so i totally get it i just wonder if it in some respects you ignore some of the risks that are on the table that may be insurmountable as i was discussing with with adam parker um the fed is going to be aggressive yes we we know that and by virtue of the move that we've seen in the market and if it does continue don't they get emboldened by that uh yeah i mean the market's pricing in seven hikes um you know that's consensus that's what the fed futures are saying if there are fewer hikes as adam was referring to that's a positive development because we're going to be reaching the end of that hawkish cycle sooner and of course rates could be capped a lot sooner our technician mark newton thinks the 10 year is going to sort of hit 250 and then actually start to descend that will be good for pe as well hey look scott miner was on in the in the first couple of days of these new programs and suggested two two and a quarter i mean maybe that becomes the the top on the tenure so he's not the only one thinking that if in fact that is the case what does it mean for the tech trade uh it's great for the tech trade because now you're paying you know 45 almost 50 times for a bond uh you know face meta at 16 times looks like a bargain i think the idea of tina comes back strong in the second half and especially owning u.s stocks i mean it's probably the safest place to put money today i wouldn't really if i was an asian wealthy person or a european wealthy person i'd be putting capital in the u.s quickly how quickly are you focused on a stock like apple which we had made the point i just did with pete nigerian the move that it's had from 150 which was really a perilous point and we noted that on the very first day of overtime that you have to watch what's happening with apple the biggest stock in the market you can't have that breakdown that's right it's going the opposite direction yep that's right it's a bellwether it's a great company it's now acting very strong and it's kind of benefiting from supply chain easing so i think in a lot of ways if apple's strong i don't think you can be that bearish on the s p all right it's great to see in person yeah great to see you thanks for coming down to post nine that's fun strats tom lee we have breaking news now
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