저자: DanIves · 외국인
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트럼프 대선 승리 이후 머스크의 정부 내 영향력 확대가 테슬라의 자율주행(FSD)·AI 가치를 크게 끌어올려 약 1조 달러 가치 상승 여지가 있다고 주장. 테슬라 목표가 400달러 상향, 12~18개월 내 시총 2조 달러를 보수적 전망으로 제시. 중국 관세 리스크는 머스크의 협상력으로 상쇄 가능하다고 봄. 엔비디아는 중국 칩 판매를 협상 카드로 보며 AI 황금기를 전망, 다음 주 실적 발표를 앞두고 시총 4조 달러 가능성 언급. 애플도 중국 AI 파트너십으로 수혜 전망.
다듬은 글
popping it again today continuing to add to that postelection pop my next guest calling president-elect Trump's Victory a quote game changer for the EV maker he's raised his price Target now to $400 from 300 joining me now post N9 is wed Bush's Dan IES he is now the global head of Technology research a new title a fancy new title to go with your jacket welcome congrats thanks all right so why is this a game changer beyond the obvious of what people have seen thus far this what is a new and cozy relationship now between president-elect Trump and neon musk yeah I think it's really it's the autonomous piece I mean if you look at full self-driving autonomous I could argue it's the most undervalued AI play in the market today and I think autonomous cyber Cab in the timing I think could get accelerated two to three years and that's important in terms of from a some of the parts the stock that could add a trillion dollars of valuation alone and you could be looking at 20 30% more Revenue per year that you even see today you think $2 trillion valuation over the next 12 to 18 months is reasonable I think it's conservative potentially if they actually execute on the vision that I see not just in terms of autonomous and AI but really it's more about that software penetration within Teslas from an FSD perspective it changes the whole business model I'm trying to think of so they they have less than 10% market share in China correct byd's got like a third uh demand for EVS is already sort of slow slowing globally so if you have a a pickup in tariffs and you have what is a more protracted trade War what does that do to Tesla's prospects in China sure I think there's one big X variable the bet for the ages pardon the pun no I think the bet for the ages for musk was betting on Trump because he is going to have significant SE at the table when it comes to the China tariffs I think especially on the AI trade I fully expect there'd be carve outs relative to Tesla and apple when it comes to any sort of tariff back and forth and I think within China mus has been that sort of 10% politician 90% CEO China just had a record quarter if you look back so I I just I'm not of the belief that China is going to be a huge headwin I think overall this is a game changer for the story you know when you look at I think over the next 12 is there any um spreading yourself to thin risk M you know what I mean yeah right guy's running like all sorts of stuff and now he's got a foot and a half in the he's going to have a foot and a half in the Oval Office whenever he wants it look being essentially a whisper really a strategic advisor for Trump I mean it's going to just put another sort of balancing act for him between SpaceX tasa boring company and others but but my view here is that I investors will take that because musk having a strategic View and a strategic I think essentially chair in the White House is significant for AI it's for autonomist but most importantly the biggest regulatory issue that they've had to navigate from an autonomous perspective a lot of that now starts to dissipate and that's a key part of the value I mean I ultimately look at this is unlocking a trillion dollars of value in Tesla Ai and autonom simply because of Donald Trump's win simply because of Trump's win because Trump's win changes the whole game for musk for Tesla for autonomous for FSD they'll still have issues on States this is not going to be you know 100% smooth road but this is a much different stock than it was a week ago with Trump in the White House is there is there any risk whatsoever I mean I I I know I mean I ask you this just as like kind of Devil's Advocate I don't know what the likelihood if any there there actually is but is there any risk whatsoever of a larger role bigger than foreseen within the administration to where he would potentially be a seller of stock sure so I don't I don't see that musk is going to take a formal cabinet position we'll call him like an AI ambassador he's going to create I mean he's going to be very strategic I think in in very key aspects on Tech on tariffs on AI but I don't see any issue from a cabinet perspective selling of stock and I'd also say broader from a tech perspective whether you're an Nidia investor Apple musk having a say in Ai and in tariffs when it comes to China as odd as it seems there's actually a comfort in him having that scene at the table versus a 202 you know bureaucrat so I mentioned your new title and with that comes with a little bit wider scope of a coverage Universe now including Nvidia um how do you see the political debate around selling chips in China is there risk around that now more so than ever because of the relationship that Trump's going to have with the Chinese yeah I think it's a it's a bargaining chip because Trump musk everyone knows there's only one game in town it's Nvidia right it's Godfather ve Jensen Nvidia this is going to give them more negotiating power in terms of chips into China and it's something that's going to ultimately play out I you saw the tariffs I think it's had a contained impact on Nvidia but it it continues to be our believe this is all setting up for a golden age of AI not just for NVIDIA but for broader Tech but it's a bargaining chip as they negotiate with Beijing what about speaking of negotiates with Beijing what about for a company like apple which is trying to embed you know all this new technology around Ai and it wants to sell a lot of these phones within China they're obviously not they're not expected to be that open to just allowing anything to be sold old in their country what kind of risk is there around that if there is some escalation between the two countries and I think no one understands that better than cook in terms in the China sort of uh Dynamics I continue to believe they get a strategic partner in China whether it's B whether it's Baba that's going to be we call the AI partner for Apple when it comes to iPhone 16 eventually iPhone 17 and I think that's why China is going to be a strength for Apple not a head you can't have carve out for everything right not every single company is going to have its little carve out which enables what is an acrimonious relationship between China and the us to just benefit XYZ company and this company here at some point broader broader policies in this country are going to impact big businesses no doubt but I think musk being involved changes the whole landscape and I think that's something where in Tech the reason you haven't seen Tech sell off in terms of worries about tariffs there's a view musk understand in terms of there will be poker moves played but no poker move was better than ultimately him betting on Trump because now we're talking about something that's going to be I think trillion that sure looks like a royal flush that he had that that he he had in in in his hand um lastly and then I got to go Nvidia uh what is next week the earnings right uh what do we think about this heading in get the popcorn get the watch parties ready I mean this is going to be a jaw-dropper I think streets still underestimating in terms of where numbers go over the next one two years I think this is one you know they will battle but ultimately four trillion Mar caps on the horizon we'll leave it there Dan Ives new title and all comes to post n and shares his views we appreciate it as always thank you all right coming up navigating the
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