저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2025년 초 시장은 2년 연속 큰 상승 후 조정 중이나 매수-딥 장세 지속 견해. ISM 제조업 회복, 연준 완화 기조 전제로 S&P500 7,000 도달 가능성 언급(연환산 약 35% 상승 필요). 리더십은 메가캡 성장주(엔비디아 포함) 유지 속 금융·중소형주로 확산 기대. 러셀2000은 이익 가시성 개선 전망. 10년물 금리 4.6%대 부담이나 5%는 투자자가 용인할 수준이라 봄. 비트코인 9.7만달러 유지는 위험선호 신호.
다듬은 글
questions is fun stretch Tom Lee a CNBC contributor of course Tom good to see you happy New Year Happy New Year to you so first off Tom what's what's your diagnosis of what the Market's been contending with here in the last several weeks as we've gone sideways and had sort of this negative skew toward Market breath markets kind of did flail into the end of last year and the first day of 20125 and I think it was trying to digest a few things you know that the pretty dramatic move in long-term yield and the dramatic drop in yields in China I think that there has been some concerns about macro as you saw some events um over the past few days and I think there was General profit taking and some sort of like let's wait and see how 2025 is given we just book two 20% back toback years and do you think that those things will remain overhangs I mean obviously you you you certain have a bullish orientation you feel as if the S&P 500 can get to 7,000 by mid year before per pops a pullback well if we're getting from here to 7,000 in less than 6 months you're talking about you know 35% annualized pace of of gain so how do we get there well I think one thing you know the viewers need to keep in mind is that just because the calendar year change doesn't mean that the strength that we saw throughout 2024 suddenly has evaporated um you know there are Tailwinds building because the FED is doish um even if they're making fewer Cuts but I think one of the sort of two important things happening early in 2025 is going to be one we're seeing manufacturing recover you know the ISM Manufacturing you know posted one of the highest readings in almost two and a half years I mean it's been below 50 basically for for nearly 3 years and the second is that I think the labor market could be softening in a way because you whether you look at linkup data or the ism employment to tell us that the FED now has to be focused back on supporting the economy so I think this month could be quite decisive in the sense that we've got weakness because of some insecurities building but I think it's you know the same tail ones are in place I mean I I I think it's still a buy the dip kind of market and in terms of perhaps the same themes being in place does that mean that the leadership profile of the market you expect to stay similar to 2024 I mean I know it's waxed and waned between Mega cap growth leadership and then some broader participation but we did finish again with dominance by the NASDAQ 100 type stocks investors still are going to pay for earnings visibility and that's why I think the mag 7 including Nvidia are going to be important Holdings um but Financial conditions should ease this year easing Financial conditions does allow some cyclicals to post better earnings growth like financials and Regional Banks Industrials and and small cap so I think that the there should be a case for broadening of the markets this year and then finally you know I think in terms of risk appetite still one of the good measures to to look at how risk appetite is is to look at something like Bitcoin and and at 97,000 it's still telling us that you know this is still a risk-on market yeah I mean obviously it's held almost all of its gains uh since that little poke above 100,000 in Bitcoin although I do wonder what you make of the the relatively heavy outflow we were seeing in the uh in the Black Rock ETF that holds Bitcoin whether it was just sort of deferred profit taking into a new tax year or something else uh it's hard to tell and I think with the ETFs uh it is creating I think an interesting Dynamic which is that um someone who sells a black rock ETF doesn't have a 30-day holding period if they buy another Bitcoin ETF so I think in some ways uh you can see people doing basis swaps and stepped up in and tax optimization strategies and not really having to worry about that 30-day holding period right the wash sale rule yeah that that certainly would make sense as a just as tax planning and in a tactical basis um again on small caps I mean it feels as if we've had these false starts with in terms of the comeback for smaller stocks and many theories fly around as to whether you really need Market bond yields to go down you really need the FED to get more aggressive or you really need it to look like the the start of a new cycle as opposed to the continuation of an existing one yeah small caps have been frustrating because there have been a lot of rug poles especially last year um I've been disappointed that small caps haven't sustained gains but we know earnings visibility is better this year um you can look at either Bottoms Up numbers or median EPS growth and not only are they accelerating for the Russell 2000 they're still almost at least at the index level 2,000 basis points higher than the S&P earnings growth so I do think this is a year where as long as the FED is committed to getting towards neutral so that's a caveat because you know of course if inflation re accelerates small cap should really be an important beta play to that easing of financial conditions that follows and just in terms of what have seemed to be perhaps headwinds or causes for investors to to pause a little bit in terms of uh seeking risk the 10year back to 4.6% or so uh as we speak right now of course you've had this massive ramp in the dollar both those things could be occurring for relatively benign or or even outright reasons but it does seem as if the equity markets need to sort of figure out if they have the chance of being a little more hazardous that's right I I think investors understandably get leery when they think that there could be a 5% on a tenure and that means investors kind of sit on their Sidelines and see if if the markets can handle it if it doesn't damage the economy or companies and then eventually you know our expectation is that investors are going to be okay with even something like a 5% 10 year just because that's still a 20 PE for a risk rebond and and and existing Equity pees can actually go up but of course it'd be better to see tenure yields closer to the low 4% than 5% right yeah it seems like that's where uh Equity investors are slightly more comfortable though again you can you can kind of make your piece at different levels Tom back to you in a second let's bring in Jason snipe of Odyssey Capital advisers and Megan Shu of Wilmington Trust Jason of course a CNBC contributor and welcome to you both and actually Megan before we uh we get into the whole uh big picture backdrop I did want to bring up something that Richmond fed president Tom Barkin said today and it gets it this whole idea of the interplay between growth expectations fed policy and interest rates uh he essentially was pretty positive on the growth profile in general and essentially saying you know we can stay restricted for a little while longer it's a very wait and see type of message he expects more upside than downside in terms of growth labor market more likely to break toward hiring than firing and you know bond yields did lift after this you happen to think Megan that uh perhaps the FED is is going to have to be forced to do more cutting why might that be yeah um and I think that bargain comments do summarize generally the gist of what we've gotten in terms of the tone from the FED of late and our view is that relative to consensus expectations we are a bit more concerned about growth and a bit less concerned about inflation um we just do not see the ingredients needed to have inflation materially re accelerate we think it could be sticky on a year-over-year basis but will continue to Trend lower and in fact we're a bit more concerned about the state of the labor market and the state of the consumer which on the surface has been very strong but as Tom mentioned before if you look at some real-time job opening data um jolts and different metrics of job openings they are plummeting um we're really not seeing any sign of them leveling off if they continue to move lower we think that will start to show up in some real weakening of the labor market and that should also curb consumer spending which again on the whole has been relatively strong but if you dig down into what consumers are spending on it is an increase in a lot of sort of um musthaves medical bills and other um Necessities rather than discretionary items so we think that the FED will be cutting considerably more than they indicated in their summary of economic projections which should help the market on the whole but again we are attuned to some weakening of the overall economic backdrop as well yeah I suppose the fact that the feds most fixated in terms of the economic metrics and growth indicators most fixated on labor markets uh to take their queue from there uh that's a positive in the sense that you know any further weakness there probably would pull a pretty strong fed response on the other hand historically when the FED is getting more aggressive in terms of easing uh to to prevent a downturn that's when stocks struggle how would you reconcile that Megan um yeah I mean I think if the FED is easing because the labor market is deteriorating that could be a concern um but we think that we can still strike the right balance and Achieve that soft Landing our our GDP forecast is just a little bit below consensus for next year um but we think that that easing will help and that that could be very different from what we've seen historically which is that the fed's more more often than not been behind the aall they've been cutting when the uh when it's too late and when the economy is heading into recession but recession is not our expectations we think it could still be a good year for equities just probably not the returns that we've seen over the last couple of years so a little bit more about staying invested we are modestly overweight to our Benchmark um but really just sort of managing expectations from here Jason U as the early action not just this year I guess but really leading up to the turn of the Year giving you any reason to rethink uh the the overall trend of things or what's your I guess sort of Topline observation of how you'd want to approach this year yeah I think there's been a little bit of digestion obviously momentum is really strong last year I mean the momentum factor in of itself was up 48% um in 2024 so I think there was a little bit of digestion in the in the last few days of the year and then I think what we had in middle of December is obviously we had a hawkish cut you know with with the FED talking about they they're not going to be on autopilot in terms of lowering rates in 2025 they're going to be more in a wait and see mode and I think that was another pill that the market has had a difficult time digesting over the last couple weeks but I think as we turn to the turn the calendar into the new year um obviously where we are now the other the other uh factor that we've been monitoring very closely which you've talked to Tom earlier about is OB see the tenure I mean the tenure close to 4.6 potentially floating higher I do think uh the market is might potentially sniffing out some concerns around inflation what will Immigration policy look like uh what What's the FED story going to be look like and and what are potentially tariffs uh talk going to look like into 2025 and I think that has been part of the Catalyst and what's been moving uh the ten year so I think that's something that's for us closely to monitor you know we saw what happened in 2022 um we coming off of two really strong years in the market so I do think there's opportunity particularly with earning starting Earnest in the next two weeks um but we're definitely in a in a more um patient mode as we kind of review all the various factors as we look at the markets yeah I guess you know the lack of policy visibility as much as there are many expectations about what policy moves might be made Jason this coming year um the lack of policy V visibility often cause often causes the the market to kind of migrate back toward the known quantities of Mega cap Tech I mean it you know obviously it's what happened in December you're pretty well exposed uh in that area have you seen any reason uh to either lighten up there or I guess either either press even press the bets there's no doubt about it Mike that obviously the these names have done phenomenal in 2024 and we will be doing some trimming I definitely don't think will trade as a monol as as they did it last year obviously with Microsoft being the lagger there only up 12 13% in 2024 so for us uh we we favor Amazon as it as it relates to the to the mag 7 I think they've really strengthened their operating leverage you know as I Look to ad AWS in the cloud I mean the margin growth there is was phenomenal I mean the operating profit was up 50% year-over-year um you know the the cloud growth was up 19% uh year-over-year as well so there there will be picks in in that in this in that space Nvidia I think will of course be another great story but I don't think all all is well there I don't think they'll all do phenomena in in the way that they did a lot um in 2024 so um you know we're going to kind of pick and choose but definitely looking to trim um some of the high flyers from 2024 yeah in fact it's been kind of beneficial in a way that the mag 7 have gone their own way at times and kind of kept volatility low or it's kept the whole NASDAQ from maybe getting a little bit overheated all at once um Tom I wonder what your thought is about the general expectations level of investors and Wall Street and strategists and such the last couple of years as we started January you were people were able to point to a really deep well of skepticism and you had very modest S&P Targets on the cell side you had a lot of economists saying we're at risk of recession there's not a lot of that as we start 2025 basically a bullish sensus feeling as if a lot of things are primed to work is that a concern um it always is a concern because we know when you get to a top um it's because investors have now made a judgment error thinking stocks don't have downside risk I don't think we're at that point yet because we know that shorting activity has increased uh pretty sharply in the past few weeks and speaking to our own clients many have been skeptical about how stocks can do in 2025 because they view it as a stock Pickers Market given the back-to-back gain so I think the institutional Universe isn't really as bullish as many believe they would be because I think many just think you know A lot's priced in on the non-institutional side I think when we look at some of the feedback from our clients the they feel pretty beaten up since mid December I think that that sort of draw down has actually taken out a lot of bullish um expectations so I I don't think people are bearish but I don't think they're as bullish as many claim investors are yeah that's fair I mean the surveys recently have shown a little bit of moderating bullishness some of the positioning data as well uh Megan is for an investor who's uh I guess got a a more Diversified portfolio you're looking at this year what stocks gave you last year and and maybe what what the bond market is is offering there is there any kind of clear moves uh or reorientations you think they should be making well I think for one we will we have recommended and we'll probably see other investors rebalancing um because you had a stellar return for the equity Market really lackluster for bonds um going forward actually where you have the yield on an aggregate Bond index um and where we expect rates to go you're probably looking at pretty decent annualized returns over a 3 to five year basis for bonds so we are neutral uh to fixed income and recently we took down our Equity uh overweight trimming from us small cap a little bit more cautious than Tom is on the small cap space um but I would say stay underweight to cash stay neutral to fixed income the obvious risk is upside risk to rates which we've talked about um and certain policies from the new Administration could put upward pressure on yields and we would look at this 4 and a half% level on the 10e to add volatility but the 5% level to really be uh a bit of a red flag so as we're looking at positioning again it's about rebalancing staying fully invested in equities a little bit overweight uh and neutral to bonds yeah we've only really touched 5% real briefly in this cycle and before that go back a long way uh since we did have to contend with that see how it goes if we get there Tom uh Jason and Megan thanks so much appreciate it all right let's send it over to Christina
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