저자: TomLee · 외국인
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S&P 매출은 인플레이션 둔화 속에서도 실질 가속, 이번 분기 5% 이상 성장으로 강한 실적 시즌. 금융·산업재 실적 호조. 대선 앞두고 공화당 상원 장악 기대가 시장 모멘텀 요인. 헤드라인 CPI 유가 영향 우려는 있으나 연준 중립 복귀 경로 유지, 주식은 '하락시 매수' 시장. S&P 목표 6000 언급. 골드만의 10년 3% 수익률 전망에는 회의적, 자산배분 상 주식 저비중 투자자 많아 상승 여지 주장. 마진 디트 우려는 있으나 시장 신호를 따른다는 입장.
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his Target to S&P 6K Tom good to have you I loved your note the other day looking at what S&P Revenue has done in the face of declining inflation and your general point is that real Revenue has accelerated and that kind of explains why equities have been so resilient uh that's right Carl you know as you know many investors and pundits thought as inflation fell and it it's been cut in half in the last two years that that would cause Revenue growth not only to hit a wall but that earnings would stall but instead S&P Revenue growth is is going to be over 5% this quarter and a real basis that's over two plus 2% and that's the strongest it's really one of the strongest numbers in more than two years and so it is a really high quality earning season so far and you know close to 80% or actually more than 80% are beating earnings so far so it's it's a good beat season but it's early right and how much of it is due to financials the is any kind of Tailwind although we we heard various uh comments about this is if a Fed Tailwind does exist is it likely to affect other areas of the economy as much as the banks well uh you know in your opening comments you talked about Industrials and that's something to watch because last week financials reported and it it was you know pretty much universally better than expected and financials are doing really well year to dat but the other group that's very sensitive to the FED cutting would be Industrials and there's a lot of industrial reports this week it's about a quarter of the S&P but I'd say it's so far so good and again Industrials are doing well in the face of an ism that's kind of been at rock bottom for for two years now Tom how much would you ascribe the recent momentum to aspects of the election as that draws near just over two weeks away I I think that's been a dynamic I mean I've been fooled by seasonality because I figured from September to election day markets would be very tentative because this is an extremely close race I mean this is a coin toss according to Nate silver but something that Stan Diller said last week might explain a lot that markets are betting that Republicans could take the Senate and that actually could ignite Animal Spirits so there may be underlying momentum that the Republicans take parts of Congress and that's why markets are bullish are you at all worried there were some comments out of and German PPI was down 14 year on your Tom but there was some ancillary commentary about worries about a reflationary uh period largely due to geopolitical events we mentioned oil coming back a bit today how worried are you about that well I think that headline CPI could definitely get affected because oil uh is oil moves dynamically and it has an immediate almost immediate effect on Headline CPI and we know transport costs uh have also spiked recently part of it seasonal but that affects headline I I think the Market's going to be somewhat skeptical that that could trigger a sustained reigniting of inflation but I think the economic data is going to be a little confusing the next couple months because you know the the boing strike itself is going to affect the jobs report but I think ultimately the FED is still on a path towards getting back to neutral I think that that should be the focus and that means you know stocks which have been strong are really still a buy the dip Market I'm curious Tom uh in the intro to this segment Carl outlined what uh Goldman is saying this morning with regard to kind of longer term returns for equities in the competition they may face from other asset classes if as Goldman says the S&P 500 delivers an annualized nominal Total return of 3% during the next 10 years it could face competition obviously from potentially treasury yields which are at at 4% um how how are you kind of thinking about just the overall asset allocation in light of some of these potential changes in just the overall dynamics of the market uh well I haven't seen the Goldman report and I'm sure it's thoroughly explained but to me a 3% nominal return for the S&P which is basically inflation tells me that the PE multiple in their model must be contracting because S&P earnings should be inflation plus GDP growth let's say that's you know six plus BuyBacks which would be eight and then if there's any multiple expansion you should add to it so I think that they're talking about a derating of the stock market I I I'm a little skeptical of that because last week I was at a very large advisor's conference and I pulled the audience it was close to 400 people in the audience and I asked how many of your clients are overallocated to stocks and I saw one hand and then how many feel under allocated equities because as you know a lot of stats show that there's no cash on the sidelines or whatever I would say close to 80% of the audience raise their hand saying that their clients have been avoiding stocks for the last two years and feel under allocated so to me that points to stocks having better than expected returns over the next decade because they have to allocate but you know Goldman's it's 10year view so they could be right right but it also fits with your view from a few weeks ago about margin debt does it not yes that's right yeah it in fact the audience response is very congruent to what we're seeing which is there's been a drisking just in the last four months in the face of a market that's been relentlessly Rising I I think there's been a lot of macros skepticism and it's triggered a lot of fears I mean partially I've been fooled by that because I thought markets would stall but they've been very strong and to me the market is uh is the signal Tom great discussion uh way to start out the week look forward to talking again soon uh Tom Le this morning frontstrap there's been a lot
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