저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Nvidia 급락은 과잉반응이며 기회로 봄. AI 수요(글로벌 노동력 부족, Nvidia 칩 지배력)는 유지되고 Nvidia PE ~30배는 부담이 크지 않다고 판단. 빅테크 및 S&P 500 상단 기업들의 이익 성장이 필요하지만 시장 폭은 양호(금융·헬스케어·필수소비재 상승). 금융섹터를 S&P 최선호 섹터로 제시, 2025년 두 자릿수 상승 가능성 언급. 연준은 비둘기파적일 가능성, 2025년 금리인상 확률 27%는 과도하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee welcome back it's good to see you great to see especially on this day how you what do you make of this well um you know markets don't like uncertainty they like visibility they like Moes so markets are a little scared today to me it's an overreaction I mean it Nvidia decline is the worst since March 2020 and we know that that ended up being a huge opportunity for investors so uh I think it's you know it's not a fun day but uh I'd be looking at this as an opportunity I just I've been thinking about you know the people who've been coming on today um of of all sort of professions whether it's a strategist or investor whatever analyst um defending all this or saying it's overblown how do we know what if it's not and if it isn't what does that mean we don't know if it's overblown you're right um but this is this is the nature of Technology I'd be personally surprised if Nvidia became betamax in the past week I mean that's really would be the kind of change that would be required to really justify selling Nvidia here and given I think this the need for glob need for AI because of global labor shortage and Nvidia chip dominance is still strong unless a new model emerges that doesn't require gpus entirely I I I'd say that markets just generally do fire Ready Aim I mean I think it's uh I won't I won't disagree with you on that I mean that that's that's how the market tends to to do that but um a lot of AI was sort of sold to investors on a hope and a dream right we haven't seen in many cases the ability yet to monetize all this or at least to have a a sizable return on the investment that a lot of these hyperscalers are are make tens of billions of dollars that they're pledging to to spend doesn't that matter I mean what if some of that hope and dream just doesn't come to the degree that we thought or we decide that it wasn't worth the money that we were willing to pay for it um I mean these are fair questions if Nvidia was at 100 PE I'd probably say that there's too much good news priced in but you know the PE is around 30 times I'm not sure that that's very demanding for investors and if you look a couple years out it's in the 20s um I don't think Nvidia is priced for protect for Perfection is the market itself I don't think so I mean the 10e now is is backing off to 45 so you're still paying over 20 times for a 10-year bond uh the median PE and the S&P is around 18 times yeah but I mean because it's skewed though because of the mega caps we're still like 22 is times so you know earnings have to be really good from from here on out right don't tell me about multiple expansion again driving this train you got to put up or shut up when it comes to earnings this this period that's right but you know I I've been researching companies since the early '90s so over 34 years I never found a PE for a high quality company to be at 22 times let's say for mag 7 to be a demanding multiple again I think if if you're talking about price for Perfection it really has to be stocks where you have to back into the npv of 100% earnings growth forever what happens if at at bare minimum we are questioning NASDAQ stocks for the foreseeable future like this doesn't feel like oh tomorrow everything's going to be great kind of deal so as long as we're doing that is there enough momentum behind some of these other areas of the market that this Market as a whole can be okay well today Market bre's actually pretty good financials Healthcare Staples they're green Dows up almost 200 that's right even in NASDAQ we have stocks that are up um yeah apple Uber meta yeah and I think the year-to date we have three weeks in and year-to date bitcoin's outperforming small caps outperforming Financial so I think the market does look pretty healthy um I would say it's also very encouraging that if we can close on the S&P above 5881 by the end of this week it really solidifies that 2025 is going to be a a probably a double digigit gain Year what's your favorite part of the market right now outside of tech uh I I think financials to me represent a pretty good fundamental case of change this year because we have a new Administration a Fed that is doish yields that aren't uh painful for banks and at a time when it could lead to upside for Capital markets activity and multiples are low so I think financials remain our number one S&P sector idea I mean because I I ask you because your your narrative is so levered so to speak to big cap Tech your top five ideas in the market are Nvidia Amazon meta Google and JP Morgan yeah are you're not rethinking any of that no at the moment no and even even though this one day is painful I I do think markets tend to overreact again unless we're on the cusp of a recession uh this this pullback in Nvidia is going to prove to be a buying opportunity as well any fed risk this week at all can they what do you have any worries about what they could say they're not going to do anything we don't think but you know they always say a lot yeah uh there's a lot of uncertainty going into January FMC because last month uh it really caused markets to rethink the probability of a hike but the probability of a hike for 2025 now stands at 27% I I think that's an extraordinarily high probability I think there's a chance the FED sounds more doish than Market expects Tom we'll talk to you soon it's good to see as always especially here at Post 9 that's Tom Lee fun Strat up next big Tech under pressure
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