저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 어려운 국면이지만 지금은 주식을 팔 때가 아니라 매수에 가까운 리스크·리워드 구간이라는 입장. 거시 배경: 인플레이션, 연준 금리 인상, 금리 상승에 지정학적 긴장 고조가 겹쳐 시장이 약세. 1분기 중 추가 하락 가능성은 열어둠. 시장 전망: 상반기는 험난하고 하반기에 개선될 것으로 봄. 다만 이미 지수가 약 10% 하락해 상반기 하락분이 상당 부분 반영됐을 수 있다고 봄. 우크라이나 증시가 러시아보다 상대 강세를 보이는 점을 긍정적 신호로 해석. 매수 선호 자산: FANG(메타 포워드 PER 약 15배, 마이크로소프트 약 28배 수준으로 저평가 주장), 에너지주(유가 배럴당 93달러 기준 OIH가 40~51달러 유가를 반영 중이라 재평가 여지), 금융주(금리·커브 변화를 아직 덜 반영), 비트코인·암호화폐(위험회피 국면에서 주식과 함께 약세였으나 장기 성장 여력 강조). 이들을 'BEEF'(Bitcoin, Bitcoin equities, Energy, FANG)로 묶음. 비트코인: 최근 4만 달러 하회, 3만 달러 지지 논의 언급. 5년 전 1% 배분 권고를 예로 들며 장기 수익 가능성 강조. 변동폭은 S&P 대비 ±30% 수준을 정상 범위로 봐야 한다고 주장. 장기 목표가 10만 달러 언급은 없음(과거 언급만 있음). 실사용자 약 2,100만 명 대비 성장 여력 언급. 해외 투자: 기술·금융·헬스케어 중심 미국이 시가총액과 유동성에서 우위, S&P500 상위 5개 종목 거래량이 EMEA 전체보다 크다며 미국 집중 투자 선호. 리스크: 추가 악재(전쟁 확산, 민간인 피해, 금리 추가 상승)로 하락 가능성, 상반기 인내 필요. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 단기 변동성을 감수하고 하반기 회복을 기대하는 낙관적 장기 관점 유지.
다듬은 글
great to see it carl and morgan uh you've said in prior times of stress that it's not a good time to be a hero is this one of those times well uh i mean it's been a good it's been a very difficult set up for markets because we were already seeing markets struggle with inflation and fed hikes and rising rates and then now we have a real escalation of geopolitical tensions and that's correct it's tough to be a hero but i think investors are on that sort of cliff edge and i do want to just you know encourage people this is a good risk reward moment for stocks i know it's kind of ugly today and it's been a very ugly few weeks but i would still sort of lean pretty hard into this and say this is not a time to be selling stocks i'd rather be a buyer here even if there is potentially some downside i was going to say it sounds like your view for the first half in general is somewhat treacherous before you see the markets improving in the back half of the year if you were to get in around these periods um you'd be in for a few months of where it would demand you to be patient i guess oh that's right carl i mean i guess you know in december we thought you know it would be very difficult to make money in the first six months of this year uh but now we're in february the market's down 10 percent i mean i i think the one thing that we all have to ask ourselves is you know how much more bad news can happen between now and the end of the first half that would push stocks down and this is where i'm really starting to think that you know maybe a lot of that downside that we thought would happen sometime the first half down 10 i mean it's our i mean we're already pretty much here so uh i mean i i know we're in a buyer strike and i know investors are nervous and nobody wants to see global conflict and and deaths and civil civilian casualties but at the same time you know we we should also just even look at what the market's telling us i mean ukrainian stocks are actually outperforming and they've outperformed for the past few days even as russian stocks are underperforming so from that perspective i i almost would say a half half full glass perspective that i you know it may not be as bad as we think so tom in terms of that you're a buyer of what at these levels well i think there's a lot of things that have become really attractive uh you know we've spent the last couple of weeks you know spending intense amounts of time with our clients a lot of them want to look at a lot of high quality names that have gotten really cheap and i mean some things that really come to top of mind are things like fang right uh meta is probably a 15 times forward pe uh microsoft's under 28 times ford earnings and then if you look at real asset stocks uh you know energy remains one of our top and favorite sectors because the energy stocks are so cheap to oil and oil at 93 means that i mean if you look at oih you know it's discounting 40 51 oil right now so you could have a huge re-rate in the energy stocks even from here um and financials i i think haven't really caught up to what has happened with the curve and with rates so i think there's still a lot of things to buy and and our acronym is beef you know bitcoin bitcoin equities energy and fang uh you know kryptos obviously had had it pretty rough but you know it's kind of a risk-off asset when when equities are down yeah which is which still has a lot of people shaking their heads tom as the inflation hedge story has taken a hit um the even the payment mechanism arguably has a long way to go uh this morning a lot of discussion uh regarding 30k now than the new place to watch now that we've uh fallen under 40k um i mean it wasn't too long ago we were talking about 100k as a target is that ever coming back yes uh yeah i mean i think what anyone looking at bitcoin has to remember they have to widen their bands of what they consider trading ranges i mean i know it it's a little eye-popping but what we might say is like you know plus or minus five percent of the s p uh shouldn't really rattle people in crypto it does seem like plus or minus 30 is sort of the more normal range band and i i think that the runway for bitcoin still remains tremendous i mean we uh i think you just have to use longer timeframes because you know five years ago we wrote our first report on bitcoin and we out we recommended a one percent allocation if someone just huddled that uh even accounting for the s p rising it would be 40 of their portfolio today so i think over the next five years can bitcoin deliver super normal returns i would say given there's only 21 million real users of crypto today out of 7 billion people there's a lot of runway there's some interesting context there just out of curiosity though you mentioned ukraine out performing in recent days are there opportunities abroad or should investors because there is uncertainty be sticking closer to home uh you know we think for people picking stocks and i think that's most viewers they want to buy the best companies and then buy them in the most liquid markets uh you know the us dominates technology financials and healthcare and that's 70 percent of the s p 500 in fact you know you you know these three dominate pretty much the global market cap so i think when you talk about liquidity and quality it would take people people back to the us and i think you know for instance you know just the top five stocks in the s p trade more than emea combined so there's a much greater ability to get in and out as well tom lee thanks for your take always great to speak with you straight ahead stocks spawn
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