저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 단기 약세 속에서도 Tom Lee는 강세 기조를 유지하며 2월은 반등 달이 될 것이라고 봄. 시장 진단: 고용지표는 경제가 여전히 견조함을 보여주고, 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스이며, 투자자 심리는 급격히 위축됨. 심리·기술 신호: VIX 기간구조가 정상화되고 있어 위험선호 신호로 해석하며, 유가 반등도 경제 건전성의 신호로 봄. 비트코인이 4만 달러 위로 회복한 점도 위험선호 신호로 언급. 금리 전망: 10년물 금리 2%는 과거(2018~2019년 3%대 근접) 대비 충격이 아니며, CPI가 3%여도 실질금리는 마이너스라 위험자산에 유리하다고 봄. 금리 인상 기대는 이미 가격에 반영 중이라고 판단. 은행 전망 반박: BofA의 인플레이션 충격(2021 하반기)·성장 충격(2022 하반기) 전망에 대해 방향 전환은 인정하나, 명목 GDP 7% 유지 시 주식 상승 가능하다고 봄. 채권은 금리 상승 시 손실 확정이라 자금이 주식·부동산·가상자산으로 이동(TINA)한다고 봄. 빅테크(FANG): 페이스북 실적 충격은 기업 고유 문제로 거시 영향은 제한적이라 봄. 페이스북은 연말 전에 더 오를 것으로 예상하며, 매도 물량 소화 과정으로 해석. 지수 전망: S&P500은 과거 급락 후 반등 통계(1938년 이후, 14거래일 약 11% 하락 사례)를 근거로 향후 6개월 중간 수익률 약 13% 상승을 기본 시나리오로 제시. 이후 신고가 경신 가능성 언급. 리스크: 금리 급등과 성장 둔화가 주된 위험으로 언급되며, 시장이 극도로 민감해 확신이 약하다는 점을 인정.
다듬은 글
given the jobs print and expectations that you're going to have a hostile fed sooner rather than later hey scott how are you yeah thanks for having me on um yeah i mean first of all i heard all the comments all the other guests made and i agree this is a pretty treacherous period for markets but i'm still going to lean into this weakness uh and the reason we think it makes sense to is one i think the jobs report is validating that the underlying economy still remains pretty strong and with the move-in rates and while that's alarming we still have negative real interest rates and then we know investors have essentially panicked um because they raised a lot of cash uh in the first eight weeks of this year and on top of that sentiment uh has collapsed and i think you know a seismic hit like facebook even added to that misery so uh the cues i'm sort of looking at and the reason we're staying bullish is you know the vix term structure uh is actually normalizing which means we're it's a risk-on signal and i'm i'm kind of encouraged by the rally in oil uh because that is a sign of underlying health of the economy and i think on a risk on uh one of the cues that we should be focusing on is the fact that bitcoins back above 40 000 so we're still going to tilt towards february is going to end up being a rally month but clearly the last couple days have been you know horrifying what happens if the ten year goes over two percent tom lee is the market able to have a violent rally in the face of a two percent 10-year now we are what 30 some odd percent predicting a 50 basis point move uh or at least another another hike i can't remember where we are at least at this point but the fact of the matter is the market's expecting a more aggressive fed this morning than it was yesterday two percent ten year doesn't throw you off uh i mean it's it is about perspective because you know for someone who is who started to track rates uh you know in 2020 at 50 basis points for the tenure it's obviously alarming but you know in 2019 the tenure was over two percent and it was nearly three percent actually almost three and a half percent in 2018.
so i i think a two percent ten-year and if cpi is three we still have negative real rates that really generates excess returns for risk assets for assets deployed for real estate so i viewed as a risk on signal still so bank of america is out with some commentary i'd like to get your reaction to it if i could tom they talk about quote an inflation shock inflation shock second half of 21 which we we witnessed the rate shock in the first half of 22 and a growth shock in the second half of this year equals negative returns in both credit and stocks you want to take issue with that uh i mean i agree with that there's these are shocks meaning inflections um i mean growth you know u.s real growth still going to be positive but it can't match the numbers that we saw in 2021 but you know can do stocks need five six seven percent gdp growth to actually still go up uh they don't they need nominal growth um and nominal gdp growth still be seven percent and if we have the ten-year even though it's been a rate shock at two percent that's still a 50 p e for the a government bond and you're still paying nearly 25 times to buy high-yield bond so can the smppe hold at 20 i think so and you know i think there there's still innovation that's being generated by this pandemic because even though people talk about how great this employment report is there's you know there's still 2 million less people working today than there was at the end of 2019 but productivity has allowed total output to actually exceed that i mean i think i think that's pretty impressive so that's operating leverage so i think this would still be a great environment for stocks and again there's 142 trillion of assets held by households of which like 60 are in bonds and we have to remember households have to decide how much credit they want to own if the 10-year yields are going to go up because they're guaranteed to lose money owning any kind of bond and so guaranteeing tina i just think means it flows into equities into risk assets real estate and even crypto well you've been continuing to recommend when it comes to equities the fangs right and after you picked your job off the floor uh from facebook's print i'm wondering what you think of the fragility of of that trade whether you think it's still intact now obviously facebook doesn't tell the whole story because there are other fang components amazon included today which knocked the cover off the ball and apple google and uh some of the others did did as well microsoft is the one i'm trying to think of you worried about that trade at all tom i mean you're not getting a massive follow-through today in nasdaq like you got a drift lower or an elevator uh down lower in in metal yeah it's a great point scott i mean foremost uh if someone said uh hey look investors are so bullish uh you know that uh they're buying anything you know the facebook sell-off just shows you the market is nervous and has a hair trigger so to me i think it's really a confirmation that conviction in this market is not that strong which i just don't see as a sign of a top i think at the top everyone's bullish and they'd be you know saying they're going to buy the facebook chip i don't think people are but yes from a market perspective it is a huge economic blow uh primarily to holders of facebook because you know the reality is facebook's sort of earnings miss doesn't have much implication for gdp generally because you know as you know it's not really going to hit the ism or the pmis and probably not going to hit employment so to me it it shows you that there is a company specific issue but would i be looking at 26 selloffs as a buying opportunity i mean strangely i'd say i think facebook's going to be higher before the end of the year uh but of course you know you have to let uh all the sellers sell and and sort of position square so i'm going to i'm going to let you go but before i do i just want to confirm that you think that we're set up for a 13 gain presuming you're talking about the s p 500 a 13 gain over the next six months and we're going to hit new highs after we get through this treacherous period is that what correct scott that's right uh yeah we published something this morning just highlighting that since 1938 if you look at the type of waterfall decline the stock market had which is almost 11 over 14 trading days that's actually a like a 3 percentile moving market and over the next six months the median return uh is around 13 so this is just saying within the next six months the s p retains 48.50 or so uh and that that's that's our base case yes all right tom i appreciate uh hearing your point of view and i know our viewers do as well and uh i've said it a thousand times at least at this point probably ten thousand uh you've been right we're going to see if you uh remain that way tom lee thank you thanks scott
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