저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄 결론: 미국 국가부채 급증으로 달러 체제가 흔들리면 비트코인 같은 희소 자산이 상대적으로 유리하다는 주장이며, 개별 알트코인(솔라나 등)에 대한 단기 매매 관점도 함께 제시됨. 미국 국가부채: 연방정부 부채가 약 30조 달러(GDP 대비 약 143%)에 도달했다고 언급. 2008년 금융위기 이후 약 10년간 약 10조 달러에서 30조 달러로 300% 이상 증가했다고 설명. 부채 구조와 금리 리스크: 경기부양 패키지(약 5조 달러), 복지 지출 확대가 부채 증가 요인으로 제시. 금리가 오르면 이자 부담이 비례 증가하며, 금리가 10% 이상 오르면 이자 비용이 연방 지출의 100%를 넘을 수 있다는 트윗 인용 소개. 재정 붕괴 시나리오: 정부가 직원 급여·계약 이행이 어려워지고 결국 화폐 발행으로 대응할 경우 인플레이션이 심화된다고 주장. 부채가 40조 달러에 도달하는 데 3년 미만이 걸릴 것이라는 전망 언급. 비트코인 관점: 법정화폐 붕괴 시 비트코인, 금, 희소 자산이 명목상 상승할 것이라는 주장. 비트코인은 달러와 상관관계가 있는 자산이라고 설명. 온체인 지표(Santiment 분석 인용): 30일 MRV(시가총액 대비 실현가치) 비율이 15% 미만이면 매수 기회 구간으로 해석하며, 현재 그 구간에 진입했다고 언급. 고래(대형 지갑)의 축적 신호와 일부 프로토콜의 거래소 유입 증가에 대한 우려도 함께 언급. 솔라나(SOL): 일일 트랜잭션 제출 건수가 1년 전 약 190건에서 현재 약 500건 이상으로 증가해 개발 활동이 활발하다고 평가. 솔라나 가격은 약 97.90달러로 전일 대비 약 10% 하락한 상태라고 언급. 해당 Wave 3 알트코인들이 이번 주 상승 후 조정받은 상태라고 설명. 리스크 및 조건: 부채 위기 시나리오는 조건부 가정이며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 제한적. 온체인 지표 해석은 분석가 개인 견해에 근거. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 특정 자산의 단기 반등 또는 추가 조정 가능성을 명확히 단정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Crypton, what's up? So guys, in today's video we're going to talk about some very specific articles regarding the United States' debt, and it doesn't concern analyst Peter Schiff, who is one of the great enthusiasts of gold, but we're also going to analyze some analyses from Santíssima, a company focused on analyzing digital currencies.
In the article, the United States government's debt recently reached the impressive mark of 30 trillion dollars, about 143 percent of GDP, a value greater than that of the Second World War. After the 10 years of the 2008 financial crisis, the United States' debt went from about ten trillion dollars to 30 trillion dollars, a growth of more than 300 percent in just over 13 years.
American indebtedness is fueled by global power, driving federal government spending of about five trillion dollars in economic stimulus packages, expanding the welfare state with more social spending and support for businesses. The increase in the interest rate currently defined by the Federal Monetary Policy Committee tends to proportionally increase the debt burden, which is the interest paid to investors.
According to a tweet from an economist in May 2020, an interest rate increase of more than 10 percent would be enough for the cost of debt to exceed 100 percent of federal spending. Consequently, the state would become insolvent or unable to pay employees, suppliers, honor contracts, and make investments.
At this point, the only option for the United States government would be to print money, which would further aggravate the inflationary crisis in the country and other nations and companies tied to the US dollar. When the national debt reaches $30 trillion, if the increase in the CPI forces interest rates to rise to 10 percent, the interest on the debt would soon cease, and all federal tax revenue would be lost.
This means that a balanced budget would require all other federal spending to be eliminated. This scenario will worsen in the coming years; it will probably take less than three years for the national debt to reach $40 trillion. A scenario of collapse of the world's reserve currency would certainly be glorious for Bitcoin, one of the few assets since correlated with the US dollar, since it is practically one of the major companies and governments indices.
Debts, funds, and assets are trading against the dollar in this scenario. Bitcoin and other scarce assets like laurel, morbidity, and land tend to appreciate nominally relative to the collapsing fiat currency. Regarding the analysis of large companies' sentiment, which led them to conduct an analysis focused on Solana, hence the up Wave 3 altcoins.
The executive of the credit analysis firm Santiman is analyzing a handful of assets that rose in price earlier this week but have since corrected. I won't go into the Twitter/YouTube video where Santiman's marketing director, Brian, says that the 30-day market capitalization to realized value (MRV) metric is useful when looking at Crypton tokens.
The MRV metric reveals the average profit/loss of coins in circulation, according to analyst Ai, who said Krypton is centralized in a zone of good opportunities. Now, in terms of 30-day MRV, we look for anything below 15 percent as a good opportunity zone, and we definitely jumped well below 15 percent.
We are well in that zone. There is still an opportunity to bless Unisoap, however, it saw an increase in inflow into the affects. Which party should be rising according to what the analyst explains. He says that this development is somewhat worrying and raises the issue that whales have been accumulating, a touch of governance in the Wave lending protocol of Fairy.
The analyst says it 's a good sign from the main stakeholders of the asset that the chart shows. He adds that Wave is exhibiting some of the most optimistic. Here is where Suape and take note that investors seem to be selling the virtual reality platform. It's right there in the cryptocurrency trade, go to FTX.
The crypto analyst notes that this is actually the optimistic development for the asset, that the chart is quite cyclical and at the moment. This is one of the most optimistic metrics for Wave because there is an immense amount of short selling and it's going very well, so much so that it also takes note that the MRV metrics and it's a smell of 10 entered, they don't even seem low.
The Krypton analyst says that the development activity of the smart contact platform and Solano, measured by the daily submissions of Big Ramy, increased last year. The daily live submissions of The Ruby kit is trading at just over 500 per day now, after a year ago, when it was at 190. So that's a very good sign.
And besides the fact that the Solana team still believes in improving the product, innovating whenever possible, and they believe that's what has long-term sustainability, that's something really great to keep in mind when it comes to any asset. Solana's native touch is trading at $97.90 at the time of writing, a 10 percent drop from $ 1.35 the previous day.
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