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Go beyond market headlines to understand the reasons for the today's movers and shakers and get your portfolio ready for tomorrow. Beaming live from the CNBC TV18 Motilal Oswald studio. Nikai is down 3/10enth of a percent on the flip side. Again, Cosby is up 4/10enth of a percent. All eyes on a US midterm election results this week.
So, you know, the elections are the voting early voting etc has of course been happening, but the voting is going to happen tomorrow evening, tomorrow night. Nifty Bank is I think about a half a percent higher 0.46. Yeah, almost 0.5%. There is a transition period that our borrowers are going through to pay interest regularly.
Looking to tie up with an Indian brand and that can add additional 8 to 9 million kind of volume. RBI's net short dollar position in the forward market has surged to a record high and that's $239.2 billion as of end of September. As far as Lexelvi is concerned, uh this product is differentiated mainly due to the uh speed in terms of the hair regrow growth with the patients.
Reliance Industries is single-handedly lifting the markets up and if we talk about the numbers as you pointed out strongest ever quarter 2 quarterly revenue was at a record high. Walt says third quarter bookings are robust despite this being historically the weakest quarter for the industry. it banking index all of them other culprits putting pressure on the nifty
well that is the day so far holding on to gains 230 odd points on the nifty this is closing bell we are coming to you from the CNBC TV8 multi roal studios I'm Brashant with me my colleagues Nigel and Reema guys hi good afternoon and Reliance is the hero of the day and uh one I think about about 50% % of the gains on the nifty are coming in from the Reliance industry.
So that's the extent of the gains. All those stats are at the bottom of the screen and uh I don't remember the last time I mean actually we are telling you exactly the last time the Reliance industry stock moved by that much but I mean you know when you think back it's kind of hard to imagine uh it's not happened for a while and I think that's the reason why all the focus attention on this one uh very very clearly.
So 1,200 and 62 on RIL guys. Hi and it's also helping the crude prices have also eased considerably. So Reliance Industries of course is the dominant driver for the gains today but Brent is now below $110 per barrel. This compares with Friday's closing or on Friday it had hit $118 per barrel. So compared to that uh you know we've seen a fairly sharp decline.
But what's offsetting the gains in reliance is the weakness in many of the private sector banks. ICSA bank 1 and a quarter down. Access bank 1.2% lower. A cotic mahindra bank down.9%. HDFC bank is in the red but not by a whole lot. So banks are under pressure and some inforces is the top uh nifty loser but on the whole it's a good uh day of trade.
Third day of gains and midcap small caps also moving in step. Well that's right I think and in terms of a contribution to today's gains you know more than 100 points will come in from Reliance Industries itself and that's the one that's doing the heavy lifting. remember when the top batsman the top weighted stock comes in there and performs it's good times and I think the additional trigger obviously has been uh crude oil prices cooling off 117 to sub $110 per barrel mark hopefully tomorrow we don't wake up with the root shot but hopefully trajectory is down rather than up from here on
hopefully uh Nigel oil falls uh big yeahund 110 and you know I was reading a I think it was a Goldman Sachs note which essentially said that about $30 in the in in oil prices if you uh by the way they both things they're saying $30 is geopolitical risk premium at the same time because of persistent supply issues etc there is essentially saying that their uh I think 2027 year end crude oil forecast is I think they've increased it to about $94 or so well these are all forecasts right I mean I think there is a lot of apprehension which is risk premium built into oil prices and can uh oil sell off $15 $20 quickly if there is some kind of a resolution uh you know that's that's uh that's going to be very very helpful if it were to I mean I think single most important point data point will be that if that happens just so in terms of the midterms right so the elections are tomorrow night uh tomorrow night our time and by the time we start to get a clearer picture of the results it'll be witness day afternoon our time by about 11:00 10:30 11 or so when we will start to get some of the important states into focus as far as those midterm elections are concerned.
So I think that's an important queue absolutely an important queue as well. How should you position yourself is the question. We have Mitesh Takar with us with uh you know exactly that. Midesh good afternoon. Good to have you with us here. Take longs home or square off here. What's the advice? uh pashant see you know I think squaring off here may not be the best idea purely because of the fact that u uh momentum still looks like on the upside uh we've met the target of 23350 which was the next target and then we also have a revised target of around 23500 maybe around those levels you might want to book more profits but for the timing the idea is that uh you should you know trade with long bias uh on and on the top selling look at obviously stock which are giving you breakouts So that's where the action is happening.
So I have NTPC as a buy with a stop at 318 for targets of 335 and Trent is a buy with a stop below 2990 for targets of 3150. All right, we'll come back to you and perhaps get your view on Reliance as well. But let me talk about Reliance. The company has reported record quarterly revenue consolidated profit after tax in the first half of the year has crossed 50,000 cr rupes for the first time ever.
Son joins in with the earnings fine print and what brokerages are making of it. Reliance Industries is single-handedly lifting the markets up and if we talk about the numbers as you pointed out strongest ever quarter two quarterly revenue uh was at a record high the first half has seen net profit crossing 50,000 cr rupes let's take a look at the financial as well which was a beat on all parameters revenues have come in at 3.4 lakh cr rupes if you talk about the aida as well at 62,49 cr rupes their margins have improved on a quarteronquarter basis to come in at 18.8% 8% which compares with 17.3% and profits more than 30,000 cr rupes that's the kind of record uh the company has seen uh revenues of course 3.62 62 lakh cr rupes is what the company reported this time around.
It was a beat led by all the segments but oil to chemicals what a beat there. The expectation was a 20% growth. The company has delivered a 67% growth in their eida on a quarter-on quarter basis. If we talk about Reliance retail as well uh the gross revenue was up 6.5% to come at 91,716 cr rupes. This of course is adjusted for their consumer brands business de merger.
Their oil in gas business which saw flattish performance but that was good because the street was working with a decline in their volumes and realizations but they've gone ahead and improved their operating profit margins to 81 a.5% versus 79% on a quarter-on quarter and on a y basis. Let's talk about geo platforms.
Uh the first quarter of their stellar listing gross revenues were up three and a half% on a quarteronquarter basis. They were up 11% on a y basis. So the strength continues for this one as well. The double-digit growth is what the company continues. Their Aida growth was also very strong at 54% in quarter 2.
If we talk about their subscribers, they were also higher at 550 542 million which is an improvement on a quarteronquarter basis. Brokerages quite positive on the stock. JP Morgan has an overweight with a target of 1675. Goldman Sachs has a buy, Numura has a buy and Kota constitutional equities as well trending anywhere between 1,500 to as much as 1840 rupees a share.
Most of them are quite bullish and they talk about more levers going forward especially coming in from oil to chemicals business where margins are at a decade high. Sonel thank you very much uh for that. Maybe just a quick word on reliance midesh any thoughts is this one breaking out I mean because it's an important it's going to be an important one if it is for the market broadly
it is pashant you know in fact uh uh there's a mild pivot you know when the stock was uh consolidating way back um from June till about September the lower end of the consolidation was around this 12 65 1270 zone so we're right there but I think eventually setting towards the upper end of the range uh which is around 13 uh 30 40 and once it clears that 1450 is also quite possible.
So very very positive reliance. In fact after today's big move you might get a mild pullback tomorrow if you are lucky enough then it'll be a fresh entry point. Got that. Thank you very much Mesh for that. Uh and that is reliance coming through for you. Well Bhavin Sha is with us. He's founder CIO and CEO at Samika Capital.
Abhavin good to have you with us here. Thank you very much for joining us. Uh So let me just let me just start with the biggest name which is moving the largest today which is Reliance. By the way, do you own the stock and and any thoughts at all on this one? I mean I don't own it and don't really track it that much.
So um uh yeah we recently did look at uh you know the listing of Jio platform and in context of that other opportunities but not directly reliance industries. uh I think the what I can say is you know talking to a lot of companies in the indust in in a sort of uh who are ultimately uh customers or direct or indirect customers of Reliance you know the pricing has been very strong um you know I think the crude uh flow through impact you know so I think that's probably being captured here by Reliance but you know I don't know whether it's long-term sustainable or not because ultimately high input costs are you know driving into the higher you know product prices or comp you know or affecting demand.
So I I would I would look at this current developments more you know as a short-term presuming that we actually get some reversal in crude eventually. M uh got that Bhabin uh you know so let me instead of asking you about this stock or that stock I mean since you were a stock picker and you run a portfolio of names uh stocks have corrected right I mean we've gone through a painful twoe kind of a process cleansing process so there is a fair bit of uh stuff which has corrected sharply so give us a tell us what you like right now you know post the correction if you believe that you know one problem has been that flows have been negative good results have hammered because the flow has been negative and there's nothing we can do about that.
But if the flow that flow equation changes then good earnings good companies could start to get rewarded. So it's an open question to you what do you like after the correction? So there are c certain sectors which have been h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h bit more also because of some regulatory news like for example the hospital space.
uh you know I think the uh while there will be you know there can be some bit of rationalization in in the pricing of drugs and whatn not ultimately I think uh there is a there is a huge value kind of being provided by you know by hospitals uh and I think the the demand for their services will remain strong you know demand is very sticky and growing and I think uh this is an opportunity to uh add into that space uh and we are doing that as we speak.
Um we also would go with I think like the insurance you know the insurance stocks were also hit by the IRDA regulation but you know I think in a longer run we still have a long ways to go as a country in terms of insurance penetration and then I think it actually results in lower pricing for the customers.
You know it will also lead to more volume over time. So we also like that space. I think we uh India has given what has happened in the market and all the uncertainties you sort of also forgotten about the beneficiaries of FDAs uh that have already been you know in you know kind of advanced progress especially with Europe and you know European countries and then you know there are other FDAs in the pipeline especially with US.
So I think we also like some of the exportoriented names even textile exporters for example. Um so that's those are some of the spaces where we are liking uh even uh for example rice exporters um if you know the company also has a good brand name in India and and then uh also likely to benefit from when the overall dust settles in sort of global scenario.
And just uh on that point of hospitals uh do you like the panindia players or regional players? Where is the value? Um I mean we like regional player like for example company Kawaii medical you know it's a very uh you know there is hardly any research on the company but uh you know they've been consistent uh in terms of what they deliver and consistently available attractive valuation.
I think Naran reported a very good numbers um and uh so we also and I think we we like what they're doing both in India and abroad and so we also like that so yeah I think uh I would say I mean they you know they're obviously not they are a pan India player so it's a combination of pan India and regional sometimes you know some specialized players around oncology also we like so it's a fairly you know multiple names that we like and we like the sector as a whole and multiple names within the sector that we think there is a right uh price to be paid for the growth uh that companies have to offer and we can count on them delivering superior return on capital.
Okay. Uh and we're going to dig in a little bit more. That's Kawaii Medical for you. Uh so Kawaii Medical, Narana Health Hospitals, insurance is another area for you. Uh and you're also talking about exporters on the back of all these FDAs not necess I mean textile you mentioned some rice names etc as well.
So yeah, we touched upon hospitals and we'll touch upon the other two as well, but there's a story which is breaking as we speak. Uh and this is the Tara Tussle senior advocate Darius Kata has written to Tara Trusts uh you know and this is a pretty sort of you know some punchy lines from that letter at the bottom of the screen.
Rashna has accessed the details. Rashna take us through it. That's right. Das Kata has written a letter addressed to Noel Tata who's the chairperson for Tata Trust and CEO Siddhhat Sharma. Now in this letter Das Kamata has first made it clear that he will not be seeking another term as a trustee of Tata Trust.
Remember his term at Sir Dorji Tata Trust ends on November 9th and his term at Sir Ratan Tata Trust also ends by the end of this month. Now in this letter that CNBC TV18 has accessed he says reappointment would anyway need consent of all the other co-rustees and doing something like that would uh and getting the consent of the co-rustees would mean compromising his independence so he does not want to go ahead with it but his sharpest words have come for the September 17 2026 board meeting that remember had gone ahead with third tumur and chandrahar and he calls it a day that will live in infamy he says it has sullied tatasan's reputation and hurt the image of corporate India He repeatedly invokes Ratant Tara throughout his letter.
Kamata says he became a trustee at the invitation of S of Ratant Tata and he asks whether the Tatasan's board would have acted the way they did on September 17th had he been alive. And answering that question, he says of course not. On the RBI matter, Kata says the trust had trusted Chandra Shakharan in July 2025 to engage with the regulator and help Tatasans avoid listing.
He says the engagement has not been meaningful. He also says the trust's support for a third term for Chandra Shakharan has since been overtaken by the events of August and September. And he says he's saddened by this divide between Enchandra Shakharan and Noel Tata. On the listing matter, he says he was the first to call it existential for the trust.
He argues that the Tata model worked because it never was driven by short-term gains. He also takes aim at Vijay Singh and Venush Vayushi Nasan who are the other co-rustees on the board. He says the trustees outvoted and got together and they outvoted Vijay Singh in September 2025 and after that they faced an engineered or orchestrated media campaign against them.
He says it became clear why this year when both the men started favoring the listing and were trying to discredit the other co-rustees. Kambata Hen ends the letter by leaving it to history to judge whether those Ratant Tata had entrusted to run the Tata trust or the Tata model can rise above their personal interest.
He also says that he has nominated Neville Tata who's a son of Noel Tata for a term at the trusts. U Rajna thanks very much uh for for this and we'll you know it's an important development in the Tara story. Mr. Kombat of course has been as Rashna pointed out strongly opposed to the listing of Tara sons uh and now essentially saying that he will not be seeking a reappointment on the on the trusts uh as a as a as a trustee when his term ends.
Uh of course expressing disappointment etc. I think u you know he's had this and made this view clear earlier as well but of course now uh making it very very clear and putting the blame where he thinks the blame lies. Well uh more on this story as we kind of go along but Bhavin Sha is with us of Samiksha Capital.
Bhavin uh you know thanks for waiting. So we did hospitals in uh with within insurance insurers as a space. Bhavin what's the is it life insurers general insurers and if you can name names that'll be great. Well, it was life insurance that was hit the hardest and you know that's where we already have some ownerships and you know we've added also in the correction you know the names like max life have been consistently delivering very strong numbers and uh we think they will do so they're very well positioned uh and if you wanted to look at something else maybe SBI life also has you know has had a very strong consistent delivery but you know Max is something that we we prefer a little bit more but yeah both names look very promising to us.
Uh by the way you were talking about the other pack right exporters and textile names. I was looking at Gokul does exports I think the last I checked some 8 9% higher. Is there any news here uh Bhavin or just like just got beaten down quite hard? Well I think to be honest the liquidity you know this is one of the big challenges in India you know Indian market that I think uh you know the market regulator needs to work on.
uh you know we have one dominant stock exchange we don't really have a competition for market making we don't really have a very good market making mechanism and you know unlike say US where you know the volumes are now there is no one dominant player in in trading so what happens here is that lot of stocks get bit up uh on very small volume and very small increase in demand and that's what is happening here I mean the yeah the the the story looks good but I think you know any any institutional investor would tell you it's very difficult to buy these names.
As soon as you start buying the price goes up uh very very quickly. Yeah. No, you're absolutely right. Uh I mean it's uh as as a as a CIO was telling me it's kind of all I mean all trading is largely at least the larger quantities is all blocks blocks blocks. I mean actually there is very little liquidity on the screen in that sense.
uh so perhaps uh that is that is a real issue in especially some of the mid and smaller cap parts of the market. Uh so so so those are the three areas uh where you which which you've identified for us. Bin anything else I mean you know uh single stock single stock names outside of this list where you think there is extraordinary opportunity.
I mean I think the uh you know you look at companies like Mut Finance phenomenal results uh world class I mean top of the class ROAS u and yet the stock has got derated significantly maybe because people are concerned about gold gold prices uh and whatnot but you know I yeah I mean it is possible that you know I have no idea what where the gold prices are going to go but one thing I know is that you know this company has a habit of you know delivering on a consistent basis and also outdoing especially when the opportunity is little better for them.
So I think uh you know it's very you know risk reward looks extremely promising on this name at this levels. All right Babin thanks a lot for joining in and giving us your take on a whole host of those stocks. We look forward to chatting up with you rather soon. By the way keep an eye on the bottom of your screen.
UPL it appears there is a bit of a margin beat but besides the numbers we were waiting by for any kind of commentary. The street was sniffing some kind of a corporate development. So let's see whether or not anything has come on that front but revenue is lower a bit number is higher by closer around 5%.
That would you know mathematically mean that margins have expanded a little bit though the profit number has come down. So we'll have to see what went on below the operating line because the ITA number is up closer to around 5% and the revenue is mildly lower. That would idly indain that in fact the margins have expanded and that's precisely the case.
120 basis points higher is what we're seeing in terms of margins on a year-on-year basis. But let's wait by for any kind of commentary with regard to the deal that they announced earlier uh in terms of the scheme of arrangement separating the entities. Uh so let's see whether or not there is some commentary on that front for the daming.
We're taking a short break. You come back our alpha manager of the day Rajesh Kotari is waiting for us. Stay tuned. Welcome back. Well, in Friday's trading session, we had Coal India that reacted to its numbers and it was a little bit subdued. But we had made this point that probably the second half of the year is something that the investors are more optimistic about and valuation gives them some kind of comfort.
So from there in fact the stock has has rallied close to around 9%. 4 and a half% has come in today's trading session. Let's tell you why. The October update came in and that looked quite good. The production number came in at around 67 million tons which is up close to 19%. The offtake though that was a bright spot that came in at 70 million tons which means that it was up close to 18 1.5%.
And the offtake at 70 million tons has surpassed the previous monthly record of around 69.4 million tons that was achieved earlier this year in March 2026. Additionally, the e- auction premium which is the force that drives the profitability that has stayed above the 90% mark for the second straight session.
In fact, we should get the graph up for you. Last month, it was around 94% and you know that is in the month of September and in the month of October that surged to around 140%. This is much higher than what we saw in the first half of the fiscal which means that profitability will improve from year on.
And the street anticipates that the auction prices will remain elevated because international coal prices have been firm. Indonesian exports have reduced and the low end inventory is what we're seeing both at coal India as well as power plants which will bode well in terms of offtake. What else do we track from year on?
Well, they planned the listing of MCL as well as SECL. That's in the second half of this fiscal. That's what could give rise to a special dividend. They've already given more than 10 rupees in the first half of the year. Street is under anticipating a dividend payout of around 25 rupees per share. Access Capital they've been bullish on the stock.
They continue to remain an ad rating with a 455 rupee price target. They say the earnings outlook is improving and valuations are attractive at less than five times EV bonita. Put everything together the stock is up in today's trading session on the back of a good update is what we saw in the month of October itself.
All right. And UPL FI27 guidance is out and they've maintained it. There is no change. Revenue guidance remains 11 to 14 sorry 7 to 11%. EIDA guidance at 10 to 14% in line with what they had indicated in the prior quarter. PSP's bottom line looks robust 89% increase on a year-on-year basis. Rajesh Kotari managing director Alpha Accurate Advisers is now joining in.
Rajes markets are looking up for the last three trading sessions Thursday, Friday and now even today and Reliance Industries has been the big contributor. Any thoughts on RAIL? Is it just catching up because it's underperformed in the past or do you see uh triggers opening up which can drive this kind of a performance and outperformance?
Well, I think uh you know from the market perspective, you know, the valuation itself are I think the biggest support for market and I always say you know people keep asking what will be the trigger for market to go up. The trigger for markets are only two. One is the growth. The growth should sustain it should further accelerate and second is valuations.
And if you look at from the growth perspective and most of the results commentary if you look at it I think BC 500 companies which have announced till now have delivered 18% revenue growth and 22% IITA growth and 22% profit growth. So that's very very healthy number. Look at last year FI26 where revenue and profit growth was suboptimal.
It is probably it was below 8 9%. So from 9% to 18 20% that's definitely a very very strong growth. So market's bound to do well because the valuations are very supportive. We are back to probably September 24 kind of a valuations below 18 times below 17 times one year forward. So market looks quite supportive from the company specific you know we would uh you know we are holding it and we would not like to comment on it but surely the one important thing is the you know the refining margins and they are shooting up globally.
Look at any global company look at any Indian company in that space. uh so clearly the current valuations are again a very uh what I would say attractive valuations so uh strong bound to do well um Rajes I should first start by wishing you a happy Diwali festive greetings in case uh you know this is the last conversation before we before Diwali is upon us uh so I you know Bhavin Sha was with us who I'm sure you know and I was asking him in this and he's a like you a stock picker as well uh you know mid small caps etc has been a specialty for him uh like I mean you know like and he's identified a few themes I mean you you've of course uh identified a few themes which have done phenomenally well but in the last uh before this week and before the last couple of days we've gone through a bit of a cleansing phase right main and small caps especially lots of sharp painful corrections have happened so I want to ask you uh what do you like what what is very very attractive now Rajes and if you can name names That'll be great obviously with all the disclosures in place which we will flash for our viewers.
Well, first of all, you know, wish you the season's greeting. You know, happy Diwali to the entire CNBC team and of course all the viewers from the themes perspective, you know, one theme and if you if I look at last two three quarters further accelerating the themes is the auto ancillaries and I think it is a very very less talked about subject but it's a very very interesting subject because there are multiple I would say tailwinds which are happening in this sector.
The sector itself is a consular that it is not that there are too many players for each segment. For every segment like stock shock absorber you'll find only three four companies. Airbex you will find only three four companies and so on and so forth. So number of companies in each segment are very few.
So at the market leadership technology leadership and if you look at the content per vehicle the premiumizes and trend look at you know like airbags from two airbags to six airbags. Look at the you know sunroof most cars I would say 75% of SUVs they have a sunroof now in the cars. So the primary is happening advanced driver assistance system ads norms are further expanding.
So it means be two-heer or be four-wheeler there's a huge again opportunity over there add to that the export opportunity currency benefit and Europe shifting the supply chain. So I think this is a very very even strong theme. There are many many companies which are listed in this space. Opportunity is quite huge and I think this is a very very interesting theme.
It has nothing to do with the AI bubble. So even if the AI bubble get burst nothing to happen to these autoillaries. Uh so I think this is one very clear winner if you ask my personal view. We are adding in this space. Uh across the few names one is one of the company to aerospace and defense. One company's into the shock absorber and uh you know states manufacturing with one of the largest top three global manufacturer the joint venture is already announced uh you know so
sona sona the second one is sona which is the first one Rajes no second is not sona sorry not then tell us which is the second one due disclosures come up for our viewers on the screen Rajes you know you can at least tell us directly I mean you're so yeah I mean see we we've been holding capital for quite some time and we adding it further uh please put a disclaimer.
Absolutely. This is not recommendation. We may move because we are ultimately the growth you know growth hungry fund manager. So uh we believe in numbers you know numbers should be supportive to our theme. Uh so I think the overall space looks quite interesting. So that's one theme. Second theme you know uh uh in last particularly one one and a half month before that there was an AI narrative and many stocks went up through the I would say euphoric zone valuations and we've been taking some profit booking uh in that period but in last again 30 40 days people are again becoming extreme pessimism uh so what is going to happen is that in that entire AI theme there are some few companies which are going to very enduring earnings growth not for one year but probably for next 3 4 years their order books are extremely strong and the valuations have now corrected because in last 40 45 50 days there is almost 20 30 40% correction in very few uh you know very very large leaders in this space.
So again this page looks very interesting to us. So that's the second theme and the third theme is the healthcare space where again there are some companies because of hospital you know there is overhang of the court ruling but I think beyond a point you know I I I don't think there can be more regulation in this space.
So entarma space is also looks quite interesting. So these are like three four themes if you ask me particularly in last one one and a half month the correction which has happened can be quite interesting. These are all names Rajes which you already owned which you've added on or there are new purchases as well.
Well the theme we used to we always own but you know we've been adding to this in last you know one or two weeks including the new names as well as you know adding to the few existing names. I see. So that was the first one was Gabriel. No. Look is unfortunate we can't disclose much because the stock specific but you know moment you look at the leadership criteria first
and then the size of opportunity and the growth what I'm saying is not only one name I'm saying across this you will find at least 15 18 20 good names to invest in the space is becoming bigger what I meant is forget stock specific the the space is really becoming big and and you you did mention that you know it's once uh it's in uh it's also into a aerospace right aerospace and defense is another vertical
it's a it's auto but with business operations is that a is and that's a optionality which others have also spoken about that these companies are have right especially on the forging side etc where uh you know with the same capabilities you can kind of service more end user industries uh that perhaps opens up the available market right
absolutely and you know Within this there are companies which already have a proven capabilities. They already have a you know 2 three 4,000 cr kind of order book. They already have the tabs with the you know world's top five you know the supply chain you know players. So for them the visibility is much much more stronger rather than putting a narrative that okay this is optionality if it comes you know I don't believe in if it has to be there because you know if it are just going to start then it's going to take another four years to get the real order book.
Okay. Can I uh try the first auto component company? Uh Rajes, is it Uno Minda or is it Samaran? You know, Madson. No. No. Neither. I think you should just go for it now. You know, but this is now this is like you've interested and curiosity now. This is uh this is this is I want I want to give you good to be curious about him.
All right. So, I want to give you an a I want to give you an award, Rajes. You you've held steadfast despite But anyway, Rajes, thank you very much for joining us. Good speaking with you. Appreciate you joining us here on CBC TV8 and thank you very much. Happy Diwali. Thank you. I think uh you know Reliance is up 8 and a half% and that is the biggest gainer.
The other one is Mud. I think Mutun has added maybe 10 20 bucks more from the last time that we looked at that stock. So uh you know the story in mut of course is the recovery from the day's low which is now I think tracking almost about 8% 9% or so because in the morning it was down three and a half four and now it's up about five on the day up has gone nowhere since the results came through it's absolutely flat sideways guidance has been maintained as Remo mentioned but otherwise I mean flattish uh okay let's uh take a okay I think our segment D street chatter is ready and nimsh is now joining in with the insight nimsh you're The four you're the fourth guy.
You want to make a guess or Rajes? I know the name. I was about to tell Pashan I know the name but let me not speculate because he's not spoken so I should not but I I have guessed the name. No, he's just joking. What are you? Anyway anyway so from a market perspective Rashan I I think there is a there is a large part of short covering which is which has led to this big rally in the nifty which is up almost 250 points.
Uh from a flow perspective again it's again it's mixed. My sense is there is a small selling from larger FIS today. So it won't be a large FI buy number for sure as far as institutional activity is concerned. Technically the next level to watch on the upside is 23500. If that gets taken out the feedback is you might see further short squeeze especially in the F name.
So that's something to track. Uh from a delivery perspective while the nifty index is is of the highs but there is there is delivery buying in in most of the large cap IT names from larger FIS today. that that data the delivery data on IT names would be interesting to track on postc closing basis. Uh you know again broader market has seen some bit of some bit of pullback now the breath is positive but at least from a from a you know market feedback point of view the feedback is that maybe this this upside in the broader markets might be used to exit in some of those weaker name stocks.
So that's the overall sentiment from in the broader markets but in the large caps I think it's it's large part of the rally today seems to be a shortcoming rally in most of these fo names. Okay. And uh stocks Namesh. So the first stock is V2 retail. We've seen a big up move in that name. In fact, the stock is corrected sharply from the 52 week lows, 52 week highs.
A bit of momentum today largely on back of HNI buying. But my sense is there could be some corporate development post the earnings on fifth of fifth of this month. So watch out for that. Uh earnings on fifth and after that you might see corporate development there. That's the first name. Second as I said you know buying into it name.
So both Infosys and Tech Mind they both stands out in terms of deliveries buying. uh I I'll be watching for delivery such closely. The third is urban company. The the company has gone on record that they're going to raise funds. My my senses uh the road shows have done they're likely to raise funds by QIP and large part of the funds my senses will be used for an for an inorganic move.
So that's something to track company and the last is set again a thinly traded stock been in a range but there are some block offers in in set at current level. So it looks like some larger FIS are looking to sell via block deal in SEMA. Okay, thank you very much for that. Get into a break. On the other side, we get you some trading ideas from our experts.
Jay Bal of Cash the Chaos joins in to uh talk about Reliance's rally and more. Welcome back. Markets going strong. It's uh over a 275 point rally on the nifty now and trying to make a dash towards 23,325. The momentum has been with the bulls today. Mesh is now joining in for a few BTS calls. Mesh uh I think uh with the kind of momentum the stock market is showing I think very clearly uh uh positions could be taken on the long side.
uh I would suggest a buy on alt or BTSC on Altex cement uh for a target of 11,380 to about 11,400 and a stop below 11,000 uh uh 300 that's 299 can be taken because 300 being around wrong number and the other one is u uh BTS on Z it had a big breakout on Friday look like a pullback day but the trend and the direction remains on the upside so buying on a pullback may not be a bad idea that is live is a BTS with a stop at 1225 for targets of 1263.
All right, thank you very much for that. J Bala is now joining in. J, thank you very much for joining in. Reliance is single-handedly pulling the markets up, up and away now and Reliance Industries itself is now will it make a dash towards the double digit mark. So let's begin with Reliance and how you see the charts and this kind of a breakout that we've seen very strong momentum.
Hi Rema, good to be here on the show. uh see uh reliance we've been uh pointing out for several weeks now that that was the uh one of the key pivot that the markets uh was looking for and today's move is a welcome move. Um the fact that it's look it's looking like it's going to close uh well above the uh 1249 level that I pointed out is a welcome um opening for the bulls.
Um but you know we we still not all clear um but there is a lot of uh favorable signs that are coming from the grow global macro as well as from the Indian market space uh for the uh resumption of the bull trend but um it's not yet uh you know eliminated uh the downsides but we we're still watching but a lot of things are favoring the bulls.
Uh we'll watch for uh additional clues to come from the markets. Okay. Do you want to uh so at this juncture in terms of a trade from 1274? Yeah. See uh it's uh close about 1275 is very important. It's it'll be uh you know um closing above an about 124 125 will be an exact close above that trend line.
So that that in fact you want you just want 1249 the stock reliance is giving much more. So that's a welcome sign. Um but we want other things to happen. Uh the the the problem comes for the uh nifty uh the low on October 8th was the significant low but the rise to the uh nifty's high on the uh 19th of uh October.
That's uh you know it's an ambivalent thing. It can be uh labeled as a trend reversal. It can also be labeled as a corrective rise. So that's where the u you know problem comes. So we want to see um Reliance continue to do what it's doing and also we we don't want the market to stop at uh 23750. If it does that that'll be uh stop and reverse at 23750 on the nifty.
If that happens you know that'll be a little bit of a let down for the uh bull case but you know as I pointed out earlier um the the macros are looking very positive. uh the bond yields are have have possibly uh reversed and uh crude with it two with it 4% down low to okay perspect uh Jay we're losing the line with you uh can we just reconnect please uh let's just try and get Jay back on the line on a on a better line so we can hear him clearly uh we'll do that we'll just do that uh why Why not just also play out some sound bites that we've gotten from the morning.
So just sort of you know numbers from Mutur and the performance etc. We had the new managing director of Mutur Finance uh early morning with us Alexander George Mutur on their second quarter performance uh sort of explaining the growth and also uh the asset quality concerns. So addressing those issues listening
15% is what we have achieved over the first 6 months. We have revised the guidance by another additional 10% for the next half year. So overall for the entire year about 25%. We don't see any kind of issue there for us because with our kind of core domain expertise in the gold financing segment like I said our customers are 98% of them pay on time.
uh so I think we don't see any stress on their side and because we focus on the relationships with our customers through our distribution network we have not seen any kind such kind of stress and if you look at the S3 loans uh if you look at the LTB on the principal amount it's only at 53% and if you look at the S2 loans the principal LTV is only at 72%.
So what the point I'm trying to make is that 98% of our customers pay their loans regularly and that is not a reflection of that that they don't have the money or they don't have the interest to pay. It is just a transition period that we they're all going through and I'm very confident that they will pay these loans and regularize these loans.
Okay. Well uh that is the mut out there and the management talking about the numbers. Uh you know Jay Bala was with us. We lost the connection. We'll try and have him back. ASAP but Amish Baliga is with us as well. Amish good to have you with us here on the program. Thanks for joining in. You know, uh this is just your kind of uh situation.
I'm not saying stock but you know stuff which has underperformed a long time where maybe at the margin things starting to change and you've highlighted many of these uh kind of cases and situations as ideas reliance after the very very strong beat on Friday. What's the view now Amish? Uh you'll have to unmute yourself amish.
Yeah, you can hear me now. Yeah, go on. Uh, in fact, I've been positive on RAIL for quite a while. It's a different story that the stock had underperformed the markets in the last couple of quarters. But then I think the sort of earnings which have come out, I don't think can be ignored by anyone on the street and I think that's very clearly showing in the price today.
So looks like it's clearly bottomed out and uh the fresh move has started and I'm quite sure I think the next quarter also would be on the on similar lines of what we have seen last week. Uh so I'll not be surprised if we see levels of about 1450 1475 for Reliance recently so uh and what would provide that upside trigger in the next couple of months?
Do you see a meaningful recovery in the retail side of the business or will it be hinged on a telecom tariff come through which lifts geo platforms and therefore again reliance industries or is it O2C uh I mean what provides the upside trigger from here on in the next two quarters I see it will be more on the O2C side and uh I mean retail which has uh I mean compared to the other verticals we have seen a bit of underperformance I think uh the management also clearly has been decently positive on that going ahead So I think retail is is other one which can possibly provide that flip.
Uh geo platforms I don't think will have too much of an effect because whatever said done end of the day the market gives that holding company discount. I think uh I mean the effect of that will be felt straight away on the go platform stock which again had a bumper listing no doubt. Uh so I mean I would place my bets more on OTC and retail.
Okay. OTC and uh retail. Got that. Amarish, you know you have a stock pick as well and we'll just address that in a bit. But I think we we have Jay back on the line. Uh Jay, can you hear us? Yeah, I can hear it loud and clear. Okay. Uh okay, got that. So just to complete that point, uh your your call is oil's headed down, US tenure is yields cool off and cool off more.
They're already down 40 odd basis points from the highs, which then put us in a pretty good place, right? That's the view. That's right. And more importantly, Prashant, the Indian markets have been held on by four uh corners of the table. Uh one is Reliance, one is HDFC Bank, one is um uh FMCG and the fourth being IT.
Uh both it and Reliance are now pointing to a reversal and we we we were waiting for bond deals reversal to be get uh confirmed by crude reversal and today we seem to be getting that reversal in crude 2. Uh so you know all all in all those are positive signs. So for markets to take forward we want to see Nifty not stop at 23750.
Passing at 23750 and reversing will not be a good sign. We want Nifty to just uh bludgeon to through the resistance at 23750. If it does that it's all clear and we are on to record highs. But if it were to stop at 23 750 and and reverse then we have we'll have a little bit of problem which will delay the uh medium-term bull market's resumption.
I see. I see. Um got that. So Jay uh run us through what you like in this market positionally. I'm still waiting for uh you know the markets to uh you know um give me little bit of extra confirmation. But if you want to fish, you want to be in capital goods space and real estate space. Those are the ones which are likely to power ahead in the next next leg of the move.
But you know, I would I would rather be paying a little bit of premium for the confirmation and rather than not be caught on, you know, uh if the market were to reverse from 23, 750. If you're going to do something long on the market, you definitely need to have hedges. Um yeah, once again, that's again a premium payment.
You can make pay make a pre premium payment by waiting or if you're going to be in the market you can make a extra premium by hij so nothing right now you'll wait for confirmation about 23750 and then uh I mean as you say that'll be the more sure thing to do spot on spot on Krishan that's the ideal thing to do I know it's better off you know uh you know being out of the market and regretting rather than be in the market and regret so that's the approach we need to have
okay And uh just one quick word before we wrap. Gold prices Jay uh have corrected quite a bit. Lots of interest of course here uh and actually everywhere but what's the view on gold from from where it is? Yeah last week you had poor audio and we had I was trying to make the point the audio interrupted us and yeah gold and silver both are coming to a very very attractive level.
In fact more the entire precious metals complex are approaching very important uh turnaround point. the very there's a very short-term downside pending but um you need to be preparing for the next leg of the larger move and uh that is you know is probably just one uh panic low away and um we were anticipating uh gold to reverse from about 3800 odds level it's just overshot that likewise silver around from 50 odds levels it slightly overshot that and uh you know yeah so the very probably the next panic low will be just an intraday panic low and then there'll be a reversal from that low on intraday.
So that will signal the rejection of the down move and once that's done we are expecting gold and silver to be a doubler and silver to be at least a three bagger. Wow. Uh so one downside move and then uh basically uh reversal on the way higher for gold and silver the precious metals complex. Jay, thank you very much for joining us.
Good speaking with you and appreciate your time here on CNBC TV18. We'll take a break. Amish is still with us and his stock pick is pending. So we'll do that in just a bit. 280 points on the NI uh 280 points on the nifty but of course it's a closing auction session I think which is also underway. Yeah.
Uh and we should be able to get you the rates out of that session in a bit on your screens. 200 plus uh so 500 now on the nifty although I think that should settle down uh in a bit. We are back. Welcome back. Uh few minutes left before we wrap for trade. Amish time technoplast the stock that you're recommending.
Right. Uh that's a polymer products company focused on industrial packaging infrastructure and specialized applications. It's portfolio includes those large plastic drums, jerry cans, pales, uh intermediate bulk containers, HDP pipes and MOX films. uh it also makes those composite cylinders for LTG, CNG and oxygen and along with that newer applications such as hydrogen storage, composite air receiver tanks and fire extinguishers.
They're also into this energy storage business to their subsidiary. Uh the composite cylinder business is an important growth engine for the company and recycling of polymer products also seems to be a huge opportunity going ahead. Revenue wise 65% of the business is from India 35% is global and if you look at the Q1 earnings they were quite decent which came out in August revenue grew about 25% around 15% that was at 22%.
Operating cash generation was around 155 crores and net debt also reduced by about 90 crores during that quarter. So overall focus is on reducing finance cost. Now the Q2 earnings is on 5th of November and the stock has fallen close to about 25% more due to I think the market than the performance. Uh so I believe Q2 earnings can be a sentiment booster going ahead and there are enough figures ahead.
We have capacity additions overseas expansion as well as the new businesses coming on spring. So expected EPS for FI28 is about 13.75. So my target price here is 42. All right. The bell has gone. Amish, thank you very much for joining in. And the nifty closes at uh 23,440 uh in the cash session in the last 15 minutes.
Uh the bulls were in control and we added on a little more heft. Uh so 387 points up on the nifty a 1.7% gain. Reliance Industries a double digit a 12% gain on Reliance Industries contributing significantly to the up move. Metal names higher a 5% gain on Tatastel, JSW, Coal India. So generally commodities up and about.
Shriram finance geo financial uh up and about. SBI had a gain of 2 and a half% on the way down. Private sector banks though lagged. ICSA cot access in the red and infosces lost about 2%. But a solid session uh absolutely solid session and uh lots and lots of movers. Although Rema I wonder how much of this gas powered move is going to reverse right.
uh when we come back tomorrow morning uh because uh it's a 100 110 point change uh from the uh from the uh 315 price the reference price uh the nifty bank is up 120 odd points from the reference price 315 price uh so you know we'll see I think we were up about 280 points we end with about 390 odd point gain uh in the last uh couple of minutes with the closing auction session.
So that's the those are prices. Market bread by the way is quite positive. It's not wildly positive. It's uh comfortably two is to one in favor of advances you know but it's not it's not a it's not a wild day for bulls. Uh it's large cap oriented and I think that's important to remember. It's names like Reliance etc which did a lot of the heavy lifting.
Uh broader markets have done well but the small cap index for example goes home with about 0.6 0.7% gains. So uh not a uh not a big day for the it's a it's a decent day for the broader markets but we've had better uh in the past but for large caps most certainly I think it's been a very very good session.
It's a wrap on this edition of Closing Bell. Market Forward comes up next, takes up all the action in just a bit.
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