저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 주식 변동성은 피로감에 따른 일시적 현상이며 공포는 없다고 봄. 채권시장이 AI 투자 채무를 질적으로 구분하기 시작한 건 건전한 신호. 인도 IT서비스는 AI 위협 우려가 과도했다는 인식 확산. 실적 시즌 매출 성장(약 25%) 기대로 강세장으로 판단. 중간선거 후 정치적 양극화 심화로 정책 행동은 제약되나 프랑스식 재정위기 가능성은 경계.
다듬은 글
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, now joins us. Thank you very much, Ed, for joining. How about starting with technology? There are many topics to discuss: oil, war, Trump sanctions, but the MSCI index of chipmakers fell 7.5% last weekend. And I don't know if you're following this, but the index of Indian service companies, software companies in India, was up about 12% last week.
And it was the largest ever gap in the performance of Indian stocks compared to chipmakers. AI-related stocks faltered slightly in Korea, Taiwan and the US. Do you have any thoughts on how to assess this recent hesitation or nervousness? So, I think we're just seeing a period of volatility in AI stock trading.
I think everyone is tired of artificial intelligence. Every day we get a new headline about AI, and it seems to contradict what we might have known the day before. So there is a lot of uncertainty, particularly about whether all this spending on AI infrastructure will actually be profitable. What I think is a very healthy development is that the bond market is starting to differentiate between high-quality and low-quality credit .
Coreweave has a huge amount of debt that may or may not be backed by the revenues that Coreweave will be able to generate. So the bond market really did significantly reduce the prices of Coreweave securities. In other words, their bond yields have increased. So seeing capital markets allocate funds more rationally in the AI sector is good.
As far as India is concerned, I think for some time there was a perception that AI was hurting software companies , IT consulting companies. And now, I think, there's a healthier understanding that this ecosystem is not just an AI ecosystem, but also an IT ecosystem. And India certainly has many very positive reasons to invest in the IT sector.
Mhm. And what is the mood in the US now regarding the decline we have seen? Are people in any panic? No, I don't think there is any panic. In fact, we will see what the ratio of " bulls" and "bears" will be for both investment newsletter authors and retail investors. But last week there was no sign that everyone was becoming pessimistic.
No, I think everyone is somehow used to the volatility in these trades. Well, you know, something could fall 10% one day and very well go up 10% the next. I guess it's just the nature of this phenomenon. That's the nature of this, uh, revolution. This AI revolution can be confusing, as I said before.
Things can change very quickly, and I think it's hard for people to appreciate what that means. Therefore, it doesn't take much effort to cause a one-day panic that may pass the next day . I read on your screen that the KOSPI fell again by about 3%, and then bounced back after the Samsung statement .
So let's see how the reporting season goes for American technology companies. I think everything will be fine. Revenues are expected to grow by 25% year-on-year overall. So I think we are definitely in a bull market. Yes. In two weeks we have midterm elections in the US. You know, on Friday we had a guest join us who believes that regardless of the outcome— win or lose— President Trump will become even more unilateral and aggressive in his actions.
Do you share this view? No, I think the system of checks and balances in the United States still works very well. In financial markets, we call this a political stalemate, and it is usually considered a positive for the markets. We don't want politicians to have complete freedom to do whatever they want.
I think with the likelihood that Trump will have a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, and possibly in the Senate, it will be harder for him to act . He will be bound by many attacks from the Democratic majority, which could well lead to a new round of impeachments. So he will be quite busy fighting off all the attacks within the country.
I don't think he will be able to become even more aggressive on the world stage. Mhm. And if he loses, do you expect chaos, or do you think he will accept the results and move on? Well, I guess he'll have no choice but to do it. You know, he can say whatever he wants, but reality will remain reality.
We will have a legitimate election with a legitimate vote count, and if the Republicans make a surprise move and hold both houses, I'm sure he will be thrilled. Although this idea he voiced, about $5,000 for every American if he retains the majority, looks quite strange. But, after all, you know, we have a lot of noise in Washington.
And I think it's important to realize how well the US economy is doing despite everything that's going on in Washington. Ed, tell us briefly what will happen after the elections . Do you expect to see a much more aggressive Mr. Trump in the Middle East? What I, what I think we're going to see is an increase in partisanship.
This is simply a continuation of what has been happening over the past few years. The Democratic Party is becoming more radical on the left flank, and the Republican Party is becoming more radical on the right. And as a result, it becomes increasingly difficult to do anything, which, again, is not a bad thing if you look at it through the eyes of investors.
However, if we do get into a financial crisis, I mean, France is currently in the early stages of a debt crisis. If the United States goes in this direction and we need a policy response to calm the bond market, that could be very difficult to do. So yes, the election has its consequences, and this one will be more partisan, and again, I don't think it will put Trump...
I mean, his rhetoric may be more aggressive, but I don't think he will be able to act as freely as he has in the last 2 years. Okay, thank you very much, Ed, for joining us.
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