US Treasury Yields Rally | Believe US Treasury Is Managing The Yield Curve: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

요약 보기

미국 고용은 3개월 평균 약 5만명으로 완전고용 수준(손익분기)이며 실질 GDP는 약 3.5%, 임금 상승은 약 1.5%로 3분기 실적이 양호할 것이라 주장. 금리 상승은 강한 경제가 수요를 키워 장기금리를 올리는 것으로 봤고, 10년물 6% 이상이면 성장 우려. 일본 엔캐리 청산과 신흥국(인도 등) 자본유출 우려도 언급하나 세계경제는 예상보다 견조하다고 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joining us is Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research. Ed, your latest thought on the US economy: just last week, markets were pricing in over a 70 percent probability of a rate hike. Now those expectations have faded. What is your outlook for US markets, the macro economy, and bond yields? Well, I think the employment figure that we got on Friday was certainly weaker than expected.

02. But if you look at the three-month average, it's around 50,000. And I think most economists would agree that 50,000 is probably the break-even point. In other words, all we need is 50,000 jobs per month, and the unemployment rate will likely remain around 4–4.5%, which is effectively full employment.

03. So, the labor market is actually feeling pretty good. Do you know what's happening? There is a real shortage of workers, and I think as a result, companies are doing everything they can to increase productivity, and real GDP is growing by about 3.5%, while labor costs are growing by about 1.5%. So the third quarter should show very good performance numbers.

04. Mhm. Ed, is the 5.5% level on the US 10-year bond critical for stocks, or do you not think so? I don't think so. I think we're seeing everyone around here saying that interest rates are going to be higher for a longer period of time. I don't really like this phrase. I think it would be more accurate to say that interest rates will be normal for a longer period of time.

05. We are back to normal. I mean, the anomaly was short-term rates near zero and very low bond yields around the world. The bond market was actually rigged, if I may put it bluntly, between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis. Now the bond market is free to vote and express its opinion.

06. And I think he's making the point that the U.S. economy, by the way, like the global economy, has proven to be remarkably resilient. And that's exactly the level of interest rates that makes sense in a world where the US economy is actually thriving. Consumers are spending money, capital spending is very strong.

07. And the demand for credit, in my opinion, is what is pushing bond yields up. I would say, you know, if we get closer to 6% or higher, then I would start to worry about the impact on economic growth. But right now, I think the causal relationship is this: a strong economy pushes bond yields up. Good.

08. Congratulations, Ed. Nice to see you. Ed, what are your thoughts on yield curve control? Do you think we are approaching a stage where we should expect some steps in this direction, or are you not considering it at all ? As the talk about this is getting louder and louder. I think as soon as the Fed announced the buyback, they shot themselves in the foot.

09. Because since then, yields have actually increased by almost 30 basis points. So I wanted to hear your perspective on YCC. So, I think the Fed is no longer in the business of controlling the yield curve. I think the Ministry of Finance itself could well take on this. Finance Minister Scott Bessant introduced a small ......small tool a few weeks ago that didn't have a significant impact.

10. It wasn't a "bazooka". And I think the possibility of using the bazooka is still there if we start to see something that really resembles a debt crisis. You mentioned France earlier. It looks like France is entering a debt crisis. I don't think that's our case, but if bond yields continue to rise to, say, 6%, then I think Scott Bessant could use a bazooka to control the yield curve.

11. This would mean buying not $ 6 billion at bond auctions, but somewhere around $15 , $20, or $25 billion—something that would really grab the attention of the bond market, and it would be financed through the issuance of Treasury bills. This would be classic yield curve control. Mm. So, last question.

12. You said that the tipping point for US bond yields, where it gets really painful, is 6%. We're not there yet. 10-year bonds have a yield of around 5.2 %, 30-year bonds are closer to 5.6%, but from the perspective of emerging markets , for example, investments in India, are the current levels uncomfortable?

13. Does this lead to a massive capital flight from emerging markets like India? Great question, and I think there is a lot of cause for concern about this. I think this may be partly due to the so- called rollback of "yen carry trade" operations. Many hedge funds and other players borrow money in Japan at near-zero interest rates and use it to buy bonds in other parts of the world.

14. It could be the United States, maybe Brazil, maybe a little bit of India, where they could get a nice margin on top of their money's worth. And now that the Japanese are raising interest rates, it could turn the tide. So, look, I think there's a lot of cause for concern if you look at the past experience of interest rate hikes.

15. But on the other hand, the global economy has proven surprisingly resilient, as has India in the face of these shocks, the latest of which was the oil shock . Mhm. We will stop there. Thank you very much for joining us. Always welcome and appreciate your time here at CNBC-TV 18. nsight biggest market maker.