저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 긴장으로 유가가 $90대로 급등하며 아시아 증시가 약세. 미국 30년물 금리는 5.3%로 2007년 이후 최고 수준으로 상승. 인도 Nifty는 24,300 지지선 시험 중이며 선물 숏 포지션이 증가. 단기 레인지 24,200~24,420 제시, 유가와 신규 물량 부담을 주요 리스크로 언급.
다듬은 글
Every morning, the countdown to the markets begins with thorough research and analysis designed to help you profit from your trading day. We are broadcasting live from the CNBC TV18 Motilal Oswal studio. Good morning. You are with us on the latest edition of Bazar Morning Call, s. Today is Tuesday morning.
There is a lot to discuss. Oil is unfortunately moving in the wrong direction, over $90 this morning as we start. I'm Prashant, with me are my colleagues Nigel and Rima , guys. Hello, Prashant. Hello, Prashant. Greetings. So, oil prices are rising. That is, oil prices are rising, above $91, and Asian markets are also at a disadvantage.
So look at the Japanese markets, they're down one and a half percent, the Taiwanese markets are down half a percent, as are the Korean markets. It's up to you . Yes, that's true, Prashant. Then let 's get straight to the point. Well, I think the main event is, of course, what's happening with oil, and, well, you see it on your screens.
I don't think there's much to say here, except to just show this indicator, and we know all the consequences of oil moving in the wrong direction. This is an important macroeconomic factor that affects in many ways: through macrochannels, microchannels, etc. Of course, we hope that it will not remain at this level.
This is not because there is an oil shortage; it is enough, even too much. We briefly saw what happens when the Strait of Hormuz opens: prices drop to $70. But the fact is that ships do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz; There is no end in sight to the blockade, and this is an important shipping route, and that is the problem.
Iran, according to the nightly news, seized an UAE- owned oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and they have stated in the last 24 hours that Iran is changing its policy from defensive to fully offensive . That is, in essence, they will not only act in response, but will themselves initiate actions first.
So, of course, I mean , there was President Trump, who told Fox News that he was in no hurry to end the war with Iran. But, of course, you understand, you have to be skeptical about this, but, you know, there are a lot of comments almost every day, and we don't know which way everything will go. Trump, of course, also says that Iran should, quote, " raise the white flag of surrender," and Iran, of course, has no desire to do so.
He said that Trump essentially stated that they were negotiating with the IRGC, which is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC denied that they were in direct negotiations with the US. So it's the same thing again. This is confusion. And we don't know what the way out of the situation will be.
I mean, foreign policy experts, even in the United States, who cover the Middle East and so on, if you read about it, the general consensus is: there is no easy solution. There is no solution that would be a net win for the US so they can just walk away. Remember, midterm elections are coming up, and all of this is not helping gas prices and sentiment.
American stocks also fell. The S&P 500 fell about half a percent. And, of course, another factor was the 30- year U.S. bond yield, which rose five basis points to 5.3%. This is the highest figure in almost 20 years, the highest since June 2007. There were two other factors that led to rising Treasury yields .
Stronger data from the US, Empire State manufacturing numbers, as well as a significant number of corporate bond issuances, which we mentioned earlier. This keeps profitability at a fairly high level. I'll just leave you with the levels . They are not very different from what we stopped at yesterday.
Although we are closer to support levels. We are actually at 24,300. The first level is 24,300, just above which the Nifty closed yesterday. Below that—it's about 24,200. About 24,220, but the 24,200 level is about that. As for growth. The first level is 24,400, and then there is that trend line, since the market has not shown much change, it is still at around 24,450-460.
So, these levels haven't changed much compared to yesterday. Gift Nifty appears on your screen, giving a quick insight into how we're likely to start and then move on. So yes, I think the levels of 24300 and even 24240, whether they come into play and whether they hold up — that's the question. Nigel walked up to the wall with FNO data and positioning.
Nigel? Well, after the kind of reporting season we've seen, one would expect markets to gradually move up. The problem lies in the fresh supply of securities. This is what drains liquidity and puts pressure on the market. And this morning we have another negative: Brent oil prices jumped from around $85-88 per barrel.
It has risen to around $91 per barrel, as we always wish. We expect Brent oil prices to decline from an optimistic perspective. Well, yesterday during the cash market session for the first time in a long time or even the first time ever—you know, the 3:15 to 3:30 session— the market was left behind by the bears as it closed down about 52 points or so .
So some of this bad news could have been factored in during the cash market session itself. Let's see how it goes , considering that Gift is indicating some weakness at the start of trading. The flows of yesterday's trading session were mixed, although buying by domestic investors continues. But the problem, as I said, is that liquidity is being washed out through QIPs, IPOs, and also large deals.
Well, moving on to the foreign investor data on index futures, short positions have increased by about 4,700 contracts, and over the past few days they have gradually increased by 20,000-30,000 contracts from the lows we saw earlier. So, the short positions are approaching two lakh contracts or so; in percentage terms—from the 86% mark we saw a few sessions ago, the figure has risen to around 89%.
So, short positions increased, and the bears returned to the system. As for index options, this will be important as today is Tuesday, which means it is also time for the weekly expiration for Nifty. And yesterday, more put options were written than call options, roughly two to one. Moving on to the options data, if we look at the active strikes, almost 30 lakh shares were added under the 24350 call option, the premium there is around Rs 70.
Meanwhile, at the lower end, the put option at 24,250 holds a premium of around Rs 20. But given yesterday's cash session, which put some pressure on us and ended below the 24,300 mark, and GIFT indicating weakness due to rising Brent oil prices, I believe that the first reference point from below until the end of the day is the 24,200 level , which should not be broken.
It will be important to monitor the 20- day moving average, which becomes the first level of resistance during the rise. Additionally, looking at the options data, given that at the 24,350 level, call options were quite active, this becomes a resistance mark. So , in terms of trading range for the day, that's 220 points between 24,200 and around 24,420.
Brent oil prices are a constant concern, as is new paper volume in the market. Thank you very much for thinsight CNBC TV18 Motila Losal's studio.
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