저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed 25bp 인상이 시장에 거의 반영됐고, 2년물은 향후 12개월 2~3회 인상을 가격에 반영 중. 인상 없으면 채권금리 급등 우려. 실적 모멘텀(FEMO)은 강하나 AI 둔화·긴축·유가 상승·중앙은행 인상이 겹치며 주식 비중 축소와 현금 확보 권고. 일본은행 완화 축소로 엔 캐리트레이드 청산 진행.
다듬은 글
But now we're joined by. We have a festive season in India. We are celebrating Ganesh Chaturthi. So thank you very much for joining us on this auspicious day. But let's start with the US markets and macro indicators. Is the rate increase already built into the price for this week?
Yeah, well, here in the United States, there are no holidays or parties. Everyone expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate on Wednesday. The question is whether this will be a one-time step or the beginning of a rate hike cycle. I think the press conference that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be very important in shaping the market's perception of this situation.
But there is a good chance that the market already believes this will not be a one-time step. Two-year Treasury bonds are now pricing in two, possibly three, rate hikes over the next 12 months or so. This is the same thing we see in the futures market.
M-hm. Ed, but you know what the beginning of the year was like, right? We started the year expecting a couple of rate cuts, and the situation has changed to the opposite: instead of a 50 to 75 basis point cut, we are now looking at a likely 50 to 75 basis point hike over the next 12 months or so. But what if they don't dare to raise the stakes? If we look at futures, they are assuming a 92% probability of a rate hike. What signal will this send? And in such a scenario, what reaction would you expect?
Well, that's almost unthinkable when markets are so convinced that the Fed will raise rates. If they don't, I think you'll see a sharp jump in bond yields. Not only the 10-year and 30-year bonds will jump, but also the 2-year ones. I coined the phrase "bond vigilantes" back in 1983. So if the Fed doesn't become vigilant about inflation, the "bond vigilantes" will do the job, and we don't want that to happen.
So, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said he would be guided by the markets. Well, the markets are just screaming that rates should go up. So I think we'll get a quarter point increase. It's unbelievable to me that this wouldn't happen.
So, from a stock market perspective, you would rather see a rate hike than no action from the Fed, right?
Yes, definitely. I really don't want to... I'd rather have the Fed establish order, not the bond "vigilantes."
Yes. What about the likelihood of AI development slowing down from now on? How will this affect stock markets, as US earnings growth has been driven by capital spending on AI? Is there a risk of a slowdown, and if we add to that tighter financial conditions over the next 12 months, will this hurt the trajectory of earnings and the US stock market?
A very, very apt question, very relevant, because it is profits that actually drive the "bull" market. In fact, I even coined the term FEMO, fabulous earnings momentum. Earnings have been extremely strong, so much so that investors can hardly believe it. Valuations have even declined while earnings have risen, and earnings have risen more than valuations have fallen. So far we have had a "bull" market. But certainly the scenario you describe is worrying.
I don't know about you, but my head is spinning from AI. So what are we rooting for now? Do we want AI to continue to develop at the same rapid pace? Do we want it to slow down? I think some investors are saying they would like a slowdown, not just because of concerns about AI safety, but simply because everything is happening too fast, putting too much pressure on labor and capital markets. Therefore, I believe that data centers will continue to be built. They are actually discussing putting certain safeguards in place for AI models. I don't think that when they say "slow down," they mean slowing down capacity expansion.
Ed, what about the Bank of Japan? This is another important meeting we are looking forward to at the end of this week. What do you expect from it?
Well, Japan has long been a model of ultra-loose monetary policy. For so long, hedge funds around the world have viewed Japan as a source of very cheap borrowing. They would borrow money in Japan at near-zero interest rates, convert the yen into other currencies, and buy higher-yielding bonds in Brazil, the United States, or elsewhere. So we can observe a certain winding down of the so-called carry trade. Hedge funds may be starting to realize that the days of cheap money in Japan are over. Meanwhile, the strengthening yen also contributes to the unwinding of this strategy.
I believe that much of this pressure on bonds is due to a reversal of all the processes that took place during the abnormal period between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis, when central banks actually manipulated bond markets. Now the bond markets are free to choose, and they are voting for higher rates.
Ed, one last question before we let you go. You were quite optimistic about US stocks. But given the current signals, rate hikes by major central banks around the world and a jump in oil prices, I assume this will slow down the development of AI, which was actually one of the factors supporting market gains. To sum it all up, don't you think it's time to be a little cautious about stocks?
I think so. I tend to be optimistic, but the most important thing in investing is to be realistic. Optimism works on the basis of trends. The long-term trend for stock prices in the United States has been upward, but there are occasional periods when they go downward. The question is, is this a buying opportunity? Most often it really turns out to be a buying opportunity, but this time I would advise you to withdraw some of your funds. Have some cash, because cheaper assets will appear. I believe the problems with oil, bonds, and central banks will remain and create difficulties for the market.
Ed, this concludes our conversation. Thank you for joining us.
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