저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
오늘 후반 급락은 과열 후 차익실현 성격이며, 연말 상승 흐름은 유지된다는 낙관론이다. 단기 전망: 12월 말까지 주식이 잘 갈 것으로 보며, 12월은 매우 강할 것이라 봄. 다만 3~4월경 조정(페이백) 가능성 언급. 금리·연준: 지난주 연준이 도비시(완화적) 전환했다고 평가. 금리 인하 시점에 대한 시장 불안은 내년 상반기에 나타날 것이며, 실질적 이익은 하반기에 몰린다고 봄. 모기지 금리가 내년 4.75~5.25%로 내려올 수 있다고 전망. 실적·밸류에이션: 내년 실적 모멘텀 회복 및 자본지출 사이클 도래를 근거로 제시. 2025년 S&P 실적 280달러 전망(고객 질문에 대한 답). 기업 실적이 밸류에이션보다 중요하다고 주장. 수급·기술적: 65%의 펀드매니저가 벤치마크 하회, 2400억 달러 주식형 자금 이탈 → 연말 추격 매수 기대. 제로데이 옵션 물량이 단기 급락의 원인으로 거론. 출연자 전망: Scott(사회자 측 Christina Hooper 등 다른 패널 포함) 간 논쟁 — Hooper는 중소형주(S&P600, 내년 50% 상승 가능)와 경기민감주 강세를 주장, 채권(IG 크레딧·신흥국 채권) 긍정적, 달러 약세 예상. 반면 Eric Johnston은 현 밸류에이션에서 강세 확신을 주기 어렵다며 경기침체 우려 시에야 강세로 전환 가능하다고 봄. 메가캡(Fang)은 상대적으로 덜 오를 것이라는 시각. 리스크: 실질금리가 여전히 높아 경기 둔화 우려, 2025년 침체 가능성, 대선 불확실성, 통화정책의 긴 시차.
다듬은 글
welcome back thank you Scott uh what do you think we just got a little uh you know ahead of ourselves or I don't know maybe we maybe we just need a breather cuz it's been remarkable yeah that's right I wouldn't be surprised if there's some profit taking today I I don't think it changes the case that stocks are probably going to do very well between today and the end of the year and we get a pretty important report on Friday which is pce deflator yeah um you surprised that this this Market has continued to just ramp higher almost unabated uh I think there was a sequence of events that justify the move cuz we know last week we got a a Fed that has made a doish move you know ending its inflation war or shifting it towards managing the business cycle we know that 65% of fund managers are underperforming their Benchmark and we know $240 billion was pulled out of equity so between now and year end which is a small window you do have fund managers trying to catch up and I think a lot of investors reorienting their port portfolio towards a a a a nicer fed you know a less hawkish fed and I I think stocks are up investors need to allocate to stocks unless investors need to like take a breather themselves I had a conversation yesterday with Eric Johnston of caner who's been um as as bearish as you've been bullish um and told me he just can't show up now and all of a sudden change here's why I would not be able to come here and say high conviction bullish based on the current multiples where we are in the cycle where earnings are where positioning are is just not even close okay what what I would need is to see the either a recession or close to a recession where people think that it's coming we get a big growth scare and the unemployment rate starts to go above 4% a little bit of a cleansing and and lower prices in other words you're going to get all bulled up you know even more so now with multiples expanding to where they have um well you know I mean as you know valuation isn't really why anyone should ever sell a stock nor why they should buy a stock it really should be whether earnings momentum is accelerating and next year it looks like Capital spending is going to pick up there's a lot of surveys showing this and there's a gap between the hard and soft data so there's a capex cycle we also know mortgage rates could drop to something like a 475 52 next year well I mean that's a little that's not ahead of ourselves a little bit that would be taking a normal spread to the current tenure and that 200 basis point drop in mortgage r we know would stimulate the consumer um and re reliquify Regional bank balance sheets which is an earning story too so I'd say say earnings momentum picks up next year we have a fed that's trying to at least maintain the business cycle and investors are bearish there's a lot of anchored views we just heard one clearly articulate that they're can only turn bullish if there's a recession yeah but I feel like the Bears are kind of dropping like flies now right I mean there aren maybe aren't that many of them I've seen some strategists who were very bearish over the course of the last year suggest yeah well stocks can continue to go up this fed pivot is that powerful the other side of that though is what Eric Johnson and others would suggest that it's a little too early to think that earnings are going to live up to all of this hype a lot of hype that you have I mean your earnings number last time you came here like the the best case for 2025 amazing case yeah unbelievably incredible case was like 280 bucks but do I remember that correctly you you are Scott but that's that's not a prodigious feed it's about a 10% kager so it's like saying 5% from BuyBacks nominal GDP and weak or dollar get you there I don't think it's a lot to ask to get to 28 in earnings um but I think most importantly the market internals don't speak to what happens at a top this is really early cycle Behavior you know a a huge expansion of Market bread um stocks really Peak when you get good news and they go down we haven't had good new news I mean today's selloff isn't off some great headlines it's just year end rally do you think the market is at all ahead of itself in the idea that there's going to be as many Cuts as as one would like to think based on what happened you know with at the FED meeting uh I mean I I think the FED is trying to figure out how to communicate future Cuts uh and the Market's going to get anxious about it in the first half of next year that makes a lot of sense to me because we're going from a data depend fighting inflation now to under what conditions does real rate get defined and when should we titr trate that and cut rates I think that's a debate in the first half that's kind of why our 2024 view is most of the Gams happen in the second half do you think we're do you think we're pulling forward gains at this point yeah uh yeah I think December is going to end up very strong and as I think the last time I was here I thought it could be parabolic which it does seem like it's going parabolic um but a move like that isn't Consolidated sideways ways right it maybe there'll be some payback in March or April I just want you to hold your thought for for just a moment I want to bring in John spalanzani of the Miller family office who uh he's a portfolio manager there he watches the market like a hawk um what do you make of of what's happened here within the last 30 minutes or or so of of what you think is a a culprit of this sudden selloff if there is one anything more than just saying hey we've reached some pretty lofty levels let's just take some chips off the table for a minute and catch our bre hey how you doing Scott hey Tom how are you hope all as well uh yeah so it just seems like there was some big prints in the zero date options which is not a surprise it's a expiration today there's about a uh a half million almost a million uh calls and puts that printed uh a little while ago right before the sell off at the 475 strike so that was also the vwap level which is the you know for those technical people the the weighted average price that guys are pegging uh for some orders and then once we took out 475 it seems like the selling just we got selling and you know knocked us down 50 handles here so uh you know we had a stair step rally with no real nothing really uh hitting uh on the vwap all the way from really kind of uh you know probably the 5ifth or sixth of December so once we broke the vwap uh technical guys got to sell and the option the day guys just kind of piled in think it's just like maybe a little bit of an an air pocket uh for for a moment there it seems so you know volume obviously is is lighter as we get closer to Christmas people taking off and it was definitely an air pocket because we went down 50 handles pretty pretty easily from 475 to 469 but uh you know some people said that there was a couple of stories out there uh that might have done a couple of tweets that uh that uh might have been put out there you some Trina some other stuff but I don't think it I think it was more uh you know the technicals and the zero8 options which everybody's been talking about for a long time uh where you know you have you know huge gamma levels I mean you could imagine what a million uh options that are expiring today how much the Hedge is if you got that trade wrong so that's that's kind of that's like the latest and greatest Trend as we're learning I think more and more every day um in options trading whether it's from the most experienced people who are out there to more novice investors who are trying their hand at options trading uh as well I'm going to let you run I think you're with me tomorrow anyway so we'll catch up about the rally where we think 24 is going to go John thanks for calling in I just want to get some insight yep just want to get some insight on just you know tick by tick here as we as we head uh over the final stretch um at this point the markets come so far so fast I mean bars High I mean there's a lot now to live up you got to have the cuts when we think we're going to have the cuts you got to have earnings live up to what now expectations are going to rise to you got to have the economy hang in there to justify the multiple you got to have rates come down to help justify the multiple is it is it too much at some point well you're you're describing a great wall of worry and as you know markets climb a wall of worry I know but it's like maybe a wall of reality too well you know I'd say that the start of this year uh a lot of the bare arguments you played for me earlier were exactly what people said it on January 2023 we're going to have a hard Landing you can't buy stocks until we employment goes up earnings are going to be disappointing and the year played out earnings were good and we didn't have a hard Landing look at Labor Supply it's growing now so I don't know if unemployment has to go up and inflationary pressures are decreasing look at yish uh the consumer confidence service today they're back to October 2020 levels I mean inflation is disappearing from consumer expectations so I I'd say that there's a the the thing that the Bears might get wrong is multiples will do a lot more increasing Than People expect next year all right let's bring in Christina Hooper sitting here as well from Invesco this uh sudden move aside what is your view as we sort of race towards the end of the year here with these extraordinary gains since November started well I think the key is that monetary policy really since the Great Recession has had an outsized impact on markets it's really been such a critical driver of markets and a perfect example of this is what we've seen this year um and especially what the FED has communicated if we look at the September Dot Plot that implied 50 basis point cut after an implied 100 basis point cut in June was the start of a big rise in yield and now of course we're getting the FED communicating finally that we have actually seen the end of the tightening cycle in July and that has had an outsized impact on markets as it should because monetary policy has been so important so you say it's so Justified I mean we we to your point is we have as an investor class uh become conditioned to the don't fight the FED because we've learned it how powerful it could be after 08 and anytime there was any you know crisis of magnitude the feds had our back and the time they didn't we had a terrible year last year because they were raising rates rather than cutting them now the Paradigm has once again changed in our favor that's the argument you're making so this is all Justified the way the Market's reacting absolutely and uh there are there the economy is cooperating right we have an economy that has been quite resilient and we also have disinflation very much underway people were very skeptical earlier this year and I think finally in the last few months there's a realization that that the disinflationary process is happening it's very significant and we will ultimately get close to that 2% inflation Target within a reasonable period of time yeah what about the broadening um the Russell I spoke to soon of course when I said it was hanging on still a positive because now it's rolled over with everything else it's down about 1 half of 1% but it's been a remarkable run the Russell even with today's pullback is up more than 11% over one month period of time oh absolutely and I anticipate a continued broadening of the market uh and I think small caps are going to play a critical role as are cyclicals because what they're doing and what the market Ally does is it's discounting an economic reacceleration in the back half of 24 um so it makes sense that the more cyclically sensitive parts of the market are performing better this is your playbook yes that's right and then and you know when it comes to valuations I mean S&P 600's you know 11 times next year's earnings I mean uh you could see a lot of multiple expansion there that's why I think small caps could rally 50% you know next year something you continue to make that case um at the expense of of what at the expense of what well most people would say at the expense of maybe Mega cap yes I I think that's probably correct that Mega cap actually someone pointed out and I think I actually checked it was correct Fang's actually cheaper than it was at the end today than it was at the end of 2021 um because earnings have gone up like 30% and the price level is only up two but next year the multiple can be harder for to expand for the Fang so it's just more EPS growth whereas things like financials and small caps can see 50% increase in multiples plus earnings growth so I I I think you're right I think the if you're talking about PE expansion it's more of the small cap names how do you see that well I think it's at the expense of cash it's at the expense of a lot of different asset classes but what where Tom and I differ is that I don't know what is going to happen in the back half of this year in fact I suspect what we're likely to see is a leadership shift and more a focus on defensives and quality because markets will be discounting 25 and maybe that's not to mention a presidential election where who knows uh what's going to happen how messy it might get just don't know right and and let's also not forget long the long and variable lag of monetary policy so if we use that rule of thumb that it's 12 to 18 months between monetary policy implementation and when we see show up in the economy well that could mean it really hits in 24 um we really don't feel the cumulative effects until the end of 24 so could we potentially see that recession in 25 which markets could potentially start to Discount in the middle of 24 I don't know that yet we just don't have enough visibility what if I mean I saw a headline I think earlier today from the feds Harker saying that you know the economy is slowing faster than the data is suggesting what in fact if that is the case well I I think one that sets up for a growth scare in the first half and and it sets up for the market to really be debating with the FED about what they should be doing uh I would say that makes sense that's why I think the first half isn't where you make your money next year but does the FED have the tools in place I mean fed funds is at 5 and a half% they could do a lot of cutting and they have a lot of tools to really Stave this off so yeah but but but part of I I I would like to believe that part of the bull case is is yes the fed's going to cut it's going to it's going to cut because it can it's not going to cut because it it has to you're painting a scenario in almost in which it doesn't matter they have the tools if the economy slows worse if it looks like we might go to a recession well they're going to cut so that's positive anyway is it really though if they cut for that reason it is because it's one thing to be slowing when if the consumer and corporates were over levered they're not over levered today but they're paying a lot of money to borrow money so it's a cost cost of money issue that's slowing the economy so if the FED Cuts rates you're actually alleviating the biggest pressure valve on growth so yeah but uh but how how how do we justify multiples If the Fed Cuts rates because the economy's gotten that bad well it's actually that's one perspective but the reality is they're cutting rates because real rates are too high that's really what's you know it's not appropriate to be at 59% if inflation's running at two because you're running a real rate scheme that causes a recession and I think in fact if we're slowing it's proof that the real rates are actually too high right now relative to inflation right inflation's tracking it too so I I think that there's going to be a bare argument but to me it's actually perfectly in alignment with the idea that inflation's falling real rates are too high the FED actually has to make Cuts but that's a debate in the first half the idea that you know there's no way this Market is pricing in a recession no way I mean we've already placed our chips all in the middle of the table that we're going to have a soft Landing we're placing our bets at the fed's going to cut because they can not because they have to if they have to does that change the whole Paradigm about the market I think the question is moot because they don't have to this year uh I think they're 24 you mean this year exactly I think they start to cut in the second quarter because they should because they admit they are in restrictive very restrictive territory right now and so the reason for cutting is the right reason again I think that um what is UN decided at this point undetermined at this point is what happens in 2025 but I anticipate something of a bumpy brief Landing in 24 a midcycle re acceleration and then we could see more problems in 25 but but it remains to be seen at this point what what about Christina fixed income where are people supposed to be right now well if if you anticipate a bumpy Landing as I do I think investment grade credit looks really attractive also uh emerging Market debt um you know it's a supportive environment and Emerging Markets we're seeing a dollar that's weakening I think that's going to continue uh so th so those are two areas that are attractive in terms of duration long you have a view of that real quick before I go I think all that makes sense I think bonds are going to be do pretty well but of course if bonds do well PE goes up right that's why you have a big smile on your face as you finish that statement thank you guys very much h both we'll see on the other side I'm sure of that Christina and Tom all right let's send it over to another
Comments 0