저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2023년 12월 Fundstrat의 Tom Lee는 2024~2025년 증시 전망을 제시했다. 결론: S&P500 2024년 목표 5,200을 유지하며, 실적 회복과 금리 인하 기대로 소형주·금융·산업재가 메가캡 기술주보다 나을 것이라 주장한다. [시장 흐름 진단] 올해 상승은 침체 우려를 잘못 본 시장의 실수와 기술적 지표 반등이 만든 결과. 연준은 인플레이션 싸움에서 경기순환 관리로 전환 중이며, 경기민감주·은행·소형주 주도는 조기 확장기 신호라고 본다. [금리·채권] 10년물 금리가 3.2~3.5%까지 내려갈 수 있다고 보며(테크니컬 Mark Newton 인용), 이 경우 모기지 금리는 5% 이하로 떨어져 경제와 설비투자 수요를 자극한다. 하이일드 스프레드 축소는 유동성 개선 랠리로 해석한다. [S&P500 목표 근거] 2025년 주당순이익 265달러 가정(연 약 9% 성장, 자사주 매입·현금 기여 포함), PER 20배 적용 시 5,200 도출. 20배는 10년물 4~5% 구간에서 가장 흔했던 밸류에이션이라 보수적이라 주장한다. [섹터 전망] 에너지·소재는 PPI와 연동되어 인플레 둔화 시 이익이 줄지만, 기술·산업재는 인플레 상관이 거의 없고 금융은 양(+)의 상관. 설비투자 회복, 주택 회복, 금리 하락이 산업재·금융에 유리하다. [소형주·은행] 소형주 대 대형주 주가순자산비율이 1999년 수준으로, 12년 소외 후 강세장 초입과 유사하다고 본다. 지역은행 회복이 소형주를 끌어올릴 것이며 소형주는 50%, 금융·산업재는 25~30% 상승 여지, 메가캡(FANG)은 상대적으로 덜 오를 것이라 예상. 메가캡 주도권은 내년에 약해진다는 평가. [리스크·조건] 목표 달성에는 인플레 둔화, 연준 인하, 견조한 고용, 실적 회복이 동시에 필요하다는 점을 인정. 연준이 인하하지 않아도 채권 금리 상승과 주식 동반 상승이 가능하다고 본다. [패널 반론] Joe Terranova는 금융 실적 우려(이자수익 감소, 트레이딩·투자은행 수익 약화, 규제 부담)를 제기하며 목표치의 과도함을 지적. 에너지 역시 가격 하락 시 청산 위험을 경고. Tom Lee는 금융의 밸류에이션 확장 여력과 거래 활동 회복 가능성으로 반박. [출연자 전망 요약] Tom Lee는 강세 유지, 2025년 실적 275~280 가능성까지 언급하며 금융·산업재·소형주 중심 확장을 예상.
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to where you think we can go you were pretty right as to where you thought we would be right you 4750 was your target for the end of this year we at 46 we'll call it you said Mega cap was going to lead the way in fact it has why do you think things have gone right for you and investors and Bulls for the most part especially lately uh I I think people were fooled by the yield curve at the start of this year thinking we'd have a hard landing and they didn't want to fight a Fed but they're forgetting the Fed was fighting an inflation War not a business cycle so our bet was inflation would be softer you'd avoid a hard landing and then we've seen the FED kind of take its foot off the neck of monetary policy so I I think it was economists were too bearish and the technical picture turned positive very quickly it was a Triumph of technicians yeah it's not over yet right and there are those who still say that the the Cycle's going to end because of what the FED has already done we just have haven't seen it yet you've heard that how do you respond to that I I think people should study Market internal structure we've seen a huge turn around in cyclical stocks the banks are turning the regional banks are turning up small caps are leading this is not end of cycle Market Behavior this is early cycle expansion reaccelerating what if it's just a latee run as fast as you can catch up to what you missed a lot of money has come in and it's just chasing everything to the end of the year as rates of come down well if if we thought this was a head fake uh and you know I think if this is 98 you know we can run another 7% from today to when to year end but year end well I think 4,800 is more reasonable but um but I think that if it was a head fake we'd see credit calling baloney and we'd see spreads riding or high yield falling but what's happened is spreads have rallied high yields rallied it's actually a improving liquidity rally while investors took $240 billion out of stocks this year so you are you're a believer in the broadening of the move and you think it carries beyond the calendar turn yeah because now as we get into next year uh we'll have an fomc decision but I think it's going to show the FED is no longer fighting an inflation War but really shifting towards managing the business cycle huge change um I think interest rates could make a huge move lower Mark Newton our technician thinks it could be 3 3 and a half% 3.2 and that would take mortgage rates down to 5 or under % we know that would help the economy and I think there's a lot of pent up demand for capex so I I I'd say that stocks could do very well next year well you must if you think we're going to get to your target for 2024 S&P is 5200 yes what gets us there uh well it's earnings recovery so we think earnings hit 265 by 2025 that's 2 years of like 9% growth and you put a 20p a 20 PE has happened 50% of the time when the 10 years between 4 and 5% so it's the most common PE to apply and that would be 5200 but I think that's conservative because 265 is 5% of it's coming from cash right so there's like 3% organic growth I mean cash earnings is 5% growth right now per year I hear Bear say earnings aren't going to be as good because inflation is not going to be as good for earnings and that's going to be a negative and that's why the Market's overvalued and people like you at 2 $ 60 $260 are just way too optimistic on where earnings are going to be uh well I think people should study the PPI uh like four or five sectors are correlated to PPI like materials energy meaning as inflation Falls they they make less money but Tech and Industrials have almost no correlation to inflation and then financials are positively correlated so I think you have more groups that could actually have better earnings power into next year and especially if caution comes off companies you know capex there's a lot of pent up demand in capex x five out of 10 groups actually sort of cut capex as a percentage of revenues last year so you have a capex opportunity you have a home recovery opportunity and you have interest rates falling it's it's hard to say stock should fall next year so the market thinks the fed's going to cut first in March three meetings from now is that what you think uh I mean to me that intuitively seems aggressive but what's going to matter more is what the bond market starts to price and I think the two the 2-year is telling us the does have to cut meaningfully next year because if they don't cut and inflation weakens the level of real fed funds is associated with hard Landing like the FED if they're trying to manage a business cycle would be cutting rates yeah but you think it could be a little aggressive in terms of March do you do you need the FED to be somewhat aggressive in cutting to get to your 5200 uh we just need the market to get comfortable with two things that the curve can stay inverted meaning the tenure could actually go to 2.5 and the fed's still at four and the second is that stocks and bonds don't have to be positively correlated so yields could go up and stocks could rise so I I think that there's some protection or buffer against If the Fed doesn't cut rates how much do you need uh cash to come in from money markets that's been sitting in safety and now it goes towards risk assets because rates have come down and you get better yield out of the equity Market yeah I mean Scott I this year if someone bought Fang they'd be up you know 85% that's 15 years of money market cash if they buy small caps next year and small caps are 50 that's 10 years so I do think that $240 billion that left is coming back in but hedge funds also have very light positioning in equities I mean I don't know if you saw there's almost a 5year low in hedge fund positioning in financials and financials really should be where things turn next year you think financials are going to be one of the leaderships what about small caps because that's where a lot of the conversation has been of late this Awakening that the Russell has had yes um there's still a lot of non-believers yes uh I think there's the cows in place we've had 12 years of underperformance The Price to Book of small caps to the large caps is exactly where it was in '99 which was the start of a 12year bull run uh banks are huge weight in small caps we know falling rates helps asset quality so Regional Banks should rally that should pull up small caps it's clearly under owned and they benefit from inflows and then of course I think large cap banks are really good plays on capex cycle so to me it's easy to see the 20 30% kind of moves in those groups I mean small cats maybe 50 whereas it's harder to say Fang can do 50 next year the other big call that you're making today despite revealing your target at 5200 is suggesting that Mega caps Tech not going to lead next year that's right I think uh it's that I think the earnings growth they produce doesn't look as special if the pmis are turning up if the ism turns up S&P earnings going to grow you know 15 20% and then on terms of multiple expansion I think it's people are going to be more willing to fade a Fang multiple expansion whereas they'll buy a financials multiple expansion so I want to be clear um so you think there's going to be a rotation out of Mega cap into some of these quote unquote unloved areas yes I mean I'm I'm you know Fang is still a number three pick which means it outperforms but if someone's saying where will they get the best risk W I think it's clearly financials or Industrials when you when you say that Fang still outperforms the the word you use put some context to that what does that mean well let's say S&P is up 12 to 15 next year Fang will be maybe a little bit better whereas financials probably can be up 30 and Industrials can be up 25 and small caps can be up 50 so we're going to really have that significant of a a mean reversion trade so to speak yeah I think it's consistent if you look at like the history of a stock like Amazon they they have great you know a step up year and then they consolidate Wow Let's expand the conversation bring in CNBC contributor Joe teranova of verdis and aako yoshioka of wealth enhancement group it's great to have everybody with us ya I I go to you first um does Tom Lee make a lot of sense or not hi uh yes absolutely you know 2023 has really been defined by a very narrow market and so it makes a lot of sense that going into 2024 uh that we would see a broadening out of the market and especially if the economic data comes in um you know relatively benign you know neither too hot or new too cold so you do think we're going to have a broadening you agree with Tom that that we're going to have these lagging sectors are going to be the leaders that Tech can still do well it just doesn't have to carry all of the weight like it did this year a absolutely I mean I I think if the economy continues to stay relatively strong I mean some of the you know uh names in the lower half of the S&P 500 um have a lot of room to you know have the multiple expansion as well as perhaps some upside surprises to their earnings growth as people start to anticipate a recovery from The Slowdown uh in 2025 Joe is is Tom too optimistic or not well first of all Tom's been incredibly accurate so far in 2023 so congratulations for that uh I run an equally weighted strategy so I'm excited to hear your comments for 2024 because that obviously means the strategy is going to be favored but there's three points I think we need to hit on first of all when you look at the market right now and you talk to advisers who has clients sitting in cash the first thing that they will tell you is they expect the economy to slow and the cash that Scott cites going into risk assets those risk assets are inequities they want to put those assets into credit because they believe they're also going to get price appreciation how would you respond to that uh you know I'm a fan of bonds you know high yield returns 80% of stocks with less volatility um but we know that if bonds rally next year that actually has an expansionary effect on P so to the extent people decide to allocate to bonds and and spreads have a huge rally it actually means there's upside to the S&P just because the multiple now has more room to expand so Joe what so Tom says 20 times earnings Mak sense um earnings at at 260 mhm make sense is that too aggressive or not he's too aggressive with financials I'm worried about financials let me explain why what about the overall Give me the give me the view of he says 5200 on the S&P follow me stay with me no I'm I'm staying with you Scott you know me a long time I don't do S&P price targets I do the environment I'm not I've never sat here and said we're going to 5200 Environ is meas let me rephrase it into a way that we can agree to have a conversation about this is is is the environment going to be optimistic enough absolutely that the S&P can get to 5200 I don't know the answer to that I don't think anyone knows the answer to that I'm sorry Tom I don't think anyone know can we have double digit returns next year yes absolutely you can okay a what about you what do you think I think we could have double digit returns too but I think the setup is very different going into 2024 than what we had in 2022 you know we had a lot of upside surprises this year in 2023 um and I think we could have some jolts uh depending upon how the data really pans out um and how earnings really pan out in 2024 well I mean for earnings to get to to $260 things have to go really right don't they I mean how perfect I I hate to use that word but in some sense things need to be perfect that inflation needs to come down to Target the FED definitively needs to be done if not cutting the business cycle needs to keep humming the labor market needs to remain robust so that consumers don't stop spending can all of those things mesh and and make this a perfect in quotes scenario I mean I never say never but at the same time it does uh create difficulties for you know 2024 I think you're going to get bouts of it and it's not going to be a straight path to those potential double digigit returns in 2024 I think the first half could be a little bit more murky as everybody anticipates these rate cuts and if we don't get them um and and the economic data it really does slow um and perhaps more so than everybody anticipates then that bad news can really create some havoc in markets Tom how how would you assess how I've described what needs to happen for you to be right am am I overstating it things or do things really need to be perfect for you to get to 5200 I mean here's some simple math to think about earnings this year 225 so we say 2 years 265 so $40 you know 15 is going to come from just interest on the cash so it's you know 25 from organic growth which is 10% over 2 years it's basically GDP of 3% real uh I think that's pretty doable so unless we have a recession 265 is actually a low number it could be 275 280 wow for 2025 in earnings in earnings cuz remember BuyBacks is another five I mean just Buybacks in cash is 10% a year 275 280 will make you like in I mean you're so high up I we can barely see you we need a telescope to see your number on on earnings relative to where everybody else on the street is I haven't heard anybody suggest gosh you could get high as 280 I mean just keep in mind this year Healthcare earnings are down 20% they won't be down 20% for 2 more years and basic materials energy are down like 40 and Staples are down so we could as those turn those contribute to S&P earnings meaningfully especially energy right energy was such a huge swing factor it's been absent for this year why is it going to be better next year Well if if let's say price stabilizes so you just look off the curve there they won't be dragging earnings you'll actually have a positive contribution because they're not declining so it's it's not hard to get to 265 actually sounds strange but that's 2 years from now all right ya um financials energy do you like either in 2024 we we like energy I I think the setup for energy Still Remains very favorable you know valuations still aren't at you know extremes I think you know you've had some big announcements uh you know in the industry that are consolidating um and you know you have earnings growth and if the economy really doesn't slow that much um if we get that mild recession or the you know soft Landing scenario energy should continue to do well as we go into 2025 and and and Beyond Joe you wanted to take on Tom about his financials call why financials and energy first of all with energy what if the price doesn't go lower it keeps right if what if the price doesn't go high the price goes lower you get a massive liquidation everyone is overweight energy Tom you know that in addition on financials where's the where's the earnings growth come from because if you think about it you lose the effective interest income interest income was up 22% in 2022 was up 18% in 23 it's actually going to decline next year JP Morgan and City told us yesterday at the Goldman Ser Sachs conference the trading revenues down you've got all CEOs complaining about regulation in basil 3 what does that leave you with deal making yeah well a couple things one uh what you've described as why no one owns financials right because that's why hedge funds have the lowest long positions in 5 years uh second as George Boyd the head of ker research famously says it takes a whole lot of e to offset PE the financials trade next year is about Price to Book or price to earnings which means it doesn't mean it doesn't matter what earnings do next year it's how earnings power is transforming and look if we have lower interest rates we know that this saves commercial real estate it revives housing I don't think any investor says oh well your Q2 numbers aren't going to be great they're going to say this is a switch in how we look at earnings power for the next couple years so I think financials have huge multiple expansion potential and then trading as you know trading is spontaneous it's weak this quarter it could be huge next year I mean $240 billion Taken Out gross exposure is low I'm not surprised there hasn't been much trading it's going to pick up a lot next year but in that scenario you have to have a soft Landing the way you're describing it I I hope we don't have a landing yes I don't think Tom's like suggesting anything other than that if not no Landing right I mean you're if if you think we can 270 280 on earnings well we can't even come close to a soft Landing that better be a no Landing no late cycle reacceleration of the economy for all the factors that you suggested yeah Scott and one thing I think people have lost perspective on is when the FED went on those tightening campaign and brought rates in the US above any other developed world we already had a hard Landing in Europe and China so the US avoided a hard Landing cuz what broke was outside the US if you think those economies worsen next year then we're in trouble but if they're turning around and the a is telling you things are turning around Europe you don't need a landing in in the US cuz we we had a landing elsewhere a I give you the last word no I I think uh you know Tom always makes some great points about uh you know the Market Outlook and betting against Tom uh has not been favorable I think to many investors so I would go and listen to what Tom has to say all right a thank you Tom of course thank you as well Joe we'll see in the market cuz we have a little broad time to talk about
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