저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Salesforce 분기 실적은 매출은 상회했으나 이익은 하회. Dan Ives는 AI 소프트웨어 사이클의 시작이라며 Salesforce와 소프트웨어 섹터 상승을 강조하고, 기술주 전반이 내년 20% 상승할 것으로 전망. 자막 후반부는 Nvidia 관련 패널 토론(밸류에이션 적정성, Blackwell 수요, 경쟁 우위, 법인세 인하 기대)으로, 화자 구분이 불명확하여 Nvidia 긍정 견해를 보인 발언들을 포함.
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Dan it's great to have you back on the show listen they missed on the bottom line uh but they did better on the top line it looks like their full fiscal year Revenue guidance is slightly stronger than expected to but I think the Top Line it really seems like that's the focus here because this is one of those Tech names where there's been a lot of concerned over the last couple of years about how much they can grow their sales and here it is 8% year-over-year is that what's driving the stock higher yeah look Goldilocks quarter because it also shows the AI Revolution the software piece is now coming to Salesforce and you look at the they've had issues clearly over the last year I think it's to get out the popcorn M this is the start not just for Salesforce but for broader for software a huge moment where we are in the AI Revolution so in light of that how much then is going to hinge on the commentary and the guidance we have relating to agent force specifically oh I think that's front and center I mean that's the goals at the end of the rainbow in terms of agent force I think that could be 5 six billion a year as this all plays out hearing from Benny off is is very important in terms of what they're seeing from a demand perspective but Morgan we've talked about I mean all of our checks are showing this is just the start this is going to be a renaissance of growth for Benny off and Salesforce this is a stock I think has massive upside over the next year Dan current uh remaining performance obligations up 10% speaks well of the pipeline but why don't why don't you care about this bottom line Miss yeah I think John right now you want to see them just focus on spending especially uh when it comes to what they're building out you know from from an AI perspective I think that was an issue that they had six months ago so even though bottom line in margins was an issue if you go back a year and a half two years ago no longer I mean right now this is a phenomenal balance of growth you look at what we see going forward double digit type growth I I think this actually a stock that starts to get rated and broader the software piece of the AI party now comes it's not just Oracle now it sales for service now you know many others of course led by the Messi of AI paler so it's interesting you say that Dan because um Pure Storage also uh has some costs kind of spinning up a hyperscaler deal that they're involved with we're going to hear from the CEO on that in just a minute should investors get used to the idea Beyond the hyperscalers themselves of companies having to spend Salesforce pure to capture that AI opportunity yeah and that's be phenomenal interview on the Pure Storage because I think what it shows it's about these second third fourth derivatives we're talking about the biggest Tech Trend in the last 40 to 50 years so investors the street they're fine if you're spending if you're seeing the growth and you're seeing the deal flow but now it's not just about mag 7 and those are going to continue to do phenomenal it's about wear and software in cyber in storage it just shows now this AI party you having the rest of tech come which is why our view tech stocks are up another 20% next year this is just the beginning in terms of what we're seeing tonight's a huge night Nvidia is setting the stock market a buzz with its remarkable performance positioning itself as a front runner in the technological Arena recently the company's Financial successes and Innovative leadership in artificial intelligence have sparked a wave of interest from investors AC across the globe as the single best performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2023 Nvidia continues to impress ranking consistently within the top five in 2024 their state-of-the-art Graphics processing units are fueling this astonishing growth but there are more intriguing developments in the pipeline that Merit attention notably the excitement surrounding nvidia's newest GPU Blackwell is stirring conversations and setting expectations Skyhigh high with industry leaders and analysts weighing in on its potential impact all eyes are on Nvidia As It prepares to reshape the market once again leaving stakeholders eager to see what unfolds next welcome back everyone to invest talky if you take a look at the stock of Nvidia which we all think is an unbelievably good stock oh we think it's an unbelievably good company right okay I'll allow you to say it's unbelievably good stock a year ago the stock looked like it was selling at at 55 5times forward earnings okay okay it turned out to be selling it 20 times earnings because Nvidia far exceeded what anyone thought it could do so you could have bought that stock at 20 times earnings last year you could have bought it at 18 times earnings before the Big rampid Bay and we sit here and we think what an overvalued stock it turned out to be undervalued right it turned out to be radically undervalued versus the S&P versus vers versus General Mills doesn't that show you that okay but that is a unique perhaps one in a lifetime kind of move in term a move uh uh increase in earnings I mean they came into 23 analist were expecting like 20s something billion in earnings they did 60 but but I'm saying that if that's able to do that maybe we're maybe we are being too negative that Nvidia the greatest story of all time arguably turn out to be very cheap that's not supposed to be that means it may and as a result every other name is cheap no is cheap can I finish no people say I want the next Nvidia and it might be Reddit maybe it's app Lov that's all is happening and who am I just who might s I'll tell you who you are you're a guy who's been on TV yapping about this stuff for 20s something years youan a h fun yeah and on and on and I could easily see you sitting here in 10 minutes and saying these things are all completely hot air well no I'm I'm saying that those are two different things there's a dichotomy okay there are people who say I want the next Nvidia at 3.5 trillion and there are companies that could be the next Nidia but people are not Discerning they are saying you know what maybe Joby Is For Real first of all there's not going to be another Nvidia how many do you think there are there's only one there are many people who buy lottery tickets every single day oh so now we're playing the lottery Joby we're into flying cars why not okay and we know what the total address market right look there's there's a person I'm going to tell you a wild story you that there's a man who has maybe the largest supercomputer in the world in Tennessee I do he spent a fortune on Nvidia chips know a l about maybe tens of billions of dollars no not tens of billions yeah not yet hundreds no no no he's spent he's he's going to spend 10 billion and devel I'm going to make that Li he's developing humanoids how crazy is that David I'm saying that the crazy stuff is paying off in many humanoids in musle developing human there's a guy there's two trillionaires fight billionaires fighting against each other right in tweets Bezos and musk you're talking about and these guy and I want a piece of that everyone wants a piece of the action in the arena of cuttingedge Technology Nvidia stands not only as a veteran but as a prime Exemplar of innovation enthusiastic newscasters have pointed to the company's latest stride towards dominance an inevitable conversation starter among enthusias and investors alike here's a billion dooll question are nvidia's gpus the caffeine in ai's coffee the evidence suggests they very well might be analysts from Forester research led by Mike gualtier claim modern AI as we know it couldn't exist without nvidia's gpus and that's no exaggeration Nvidia finds itself at the heart of a golden epic credited largely to the cuta software development tools ecosystem and the unmatched prowess of its gpus in AI training and inference Gearheads are buzzing about the Blackwell GPU a technological Marvel in nvidia's Arsenal anticipated to advance AI tasks exponentially four times faster in training and 30 times faster in inferences than its predecessor to put things in perspective CFO colet Cress has already stated that the demand for Blackwell is staggering to the extent that it's sold out for an entire year this isn't just Market chatter it's a sign of nvidia's impending Triumph with predictions pointing toward Market beating returns once Blackwell augments the Topline figures in the subsequent fiscal year understanding nvidia's dominance also demands examining its Financial strategionan uh thoughts on the broader Market hitting new highs on the Dow uh the S&P within a hair of 6,000 or pick up on Tim's thinking on the semis versus software so I'm going to be defensive and offensive I'm going to avoid the question first and then answer it second ni so um in terms of the broader Market listen I think we're in essentially an everything rally right now going into the Nvidia print I think a lot of us spoke about how we were a bit concerned about that we'd like to see it perhaps trade a little flat or perhaps just be a bit more defensive in terms of posturing before going into that print I think that kind of explains the move that we saw post earnings because it was yet another blowout quarter I think questions about blackw Supply and ability uh and and and back ordering and pull forward of uh of ordering there I think those those um concerns have been assuaged and then in terms of the Divergence between um what we're seeing from um SMA and I give up is you know a lot of those names let's take Sal Salesforce for example the question was and this is also with some of the hypers scalers this AI related cap capex spin needs to be justified that was the prevailing wisdom at the time and and these companies were coming under pressure because investors really didn't feel like they had an accurate answer to that question you saw Salesforce tradeoff I don't know what it was 20 25% post earnings and so a lot of those names had gotten beaten up coming into the print and and so that that explains a bit of it it's essentially you have like a star player like Nvidia dragging up the rest of the balance and so you've kind of been mired in in that drag because again there's been a massive Divergence between AI related capex Spin and then capex spin going forward amidst speculations of eroding margins and competitor threats Nvidia has maintained an extraordinary operating margin a full 18 percentage points above its counterparts Among The Magnificent Seven even as Rivals like Amazon Microsoft and alphabet Venture into creating custom AI accelerators they falter without an equivalent software ecosystem like Cuda bearing in mind Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore statement about the pervasive underestimation of nvidia's competitive fortitude one can't help but engage in a moment of levity battling Nvidia is an uphill climb akin to bringing a knife to a GPU fight furthermore nvidia's strategic foray into share BuyBacks has also bolstered its Market position with president-elect Donald Trump proposing a slashing of corporate tax rates to 15% companies like Nvidia could potentially see significant financial benefits though these fiscal changes won't take immediate effect the anticipation alone could catalyze a surge in Share value a typical case of the stock market's forward-looking nature Financial entities eagerly forecast these developments with nvidia's affordable valuation adding to its Allure despite a 9-fold increase in market value since early 2023 nvidia's valuation remains surprisingly reasonable compared to other AI Enterprises it's p ratio slightly surpasses one setting up Nvidia for continued robust performance unrivaled by many in the tech indust Nvidia okay um -y you as the excitement surrounding Nvidia continues to escalate the company embodies the very Spirit of modern technological prowess its pioneering efforts in AI coupled with Savvy Financial maneuvering render it a formidable Contender for any Investor's portfolio with the Blackwell GPU gearing up to hit markets Nvidia is well positioned for an uptrend bolstered by strong growth forecasts and a stable footing in the face of Industry challenges the current state of nvidia's stock Echoes this sentiment trading at favorable valuations and poised for ascendency investors can glean much from nvidia's trajectory a beacon of innovation and proactive Market strategy clearly set for thrilling advances the market watches eagerly as the next chapter of nvidia's illustrious Journey unfolds inviting everyone to share their thoughts and opinions what does the future hold for NVIDIA this remains an open field for both seasoned investors and newcomers to speculate and engag
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