저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 나스닥100 PSR 6.73(닷컴 버블 고점 초과) 등 과열 지표를 근거로 AI 반도체 하락 베팅을 강화했다고 설명. 동시에 페이팔(6.6% 포지션), 하이디라오, 텐센트, Temple & Webster, 룰루레몬 등 저평가 종목 매수를 소개. 버리 본인 발언 인용 기반이며 과거 성과·예측 적중률 한계를 언급. 영상은 '버리가 조정 이후를 대비 중'이라는 틀로 마무리.
다듬은 글
Recently, as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 closed at fresh all-time highs, with the NASDAQ 100 hitting a price-to-sales ratio of 6.73, higher than the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, Michael Burry did something nobody on Wall Street is doing right now. He doubled down on five beaten-down stocks.
Not once, not twice, three doublings in a single trading session. Then he loaded up on shorts against the very names driving this rally. If he is right again, we are watching the top. Burry went dark in November 2025. He deregistered Scion Asset Management with the SEC, ended the era of mandatory 13F filings, and moved everything onto a paid Substack called Cassandra Unchained.
Subscribers pay either $39 a month or $379 a year for the privilege of seeing his trades in real time. So, the only place his portfolio shows up now is in his trading posts. And his most recent trading post is one of the most aggressive he has ever published. Let's go through it. First, the macro. On the same day Burry was placing these trades, the US announced that Operation Epic Fury, a 38-day offensive against Iran that started in late February, was officially concluded.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the offensive stage of the war was over. Brent crude collapsed roughly 9% through the $100 level. The S&P 500 closed at 7,259.91, and the NASDAQ composite at 25,326.13. Both all-time highs. Then Burry pulled up a chart. The NASDAQ 100's price-to-sales ratio, 6.73, higher than the dot-com peak, higher than the post-pandemic blow-off in 2021, higher than any moment in the index's recorded history.
By his own description, FOMO is, quote, clearly in play. Companies are getting, quote, dozens of years of earnings added to their valuations within the span of days. That is the exact moment he chose to start buying. Five stocks, three doublings, one brand new position. Let's go through them. Burry called this one out himself in the post.
Quote, "The third doubling down today, the PayPal position is now a full position at 6.6% of the portfolio." That language matters. He had already doubled twice this year. This was the third. PayPal is now one of his biggest single positions. PayPal had just reported earnings. Revenue of 8.353 billion dollars, up 7% year-over-year.
Total payment volume up 11% to 464 billion. Not exciting on the surface. The market hates low-growth payments names right now. But here is what Burry sees that the market does not. The new CEO, Enrique Lores, just announced 20% layoffs over the next two to three years and at least 1.5 billion dollars in run rate savings.
PayPal is buying back stock at a roughly six billion dollar annual pace on a 41 billion dollar market cap. That is nearly 15% of the float every single year. And the company has essentially zero net debt. Burry runs his own internal metric on this, what he calls delta E, owner's earnings adjusted for stock-based compensation relative to GAAP net income.
PayPal scores 96%. That is extraordinary. It means the buybacks are real, the earnings are real, the cash is real. He thinks PayPal compounds at 16 to 17% per year going forward. And he openly says it could be in play as either a private equity target or a strategic acquisition. At $45 a share, Burry is not buying a payments company.
He is buying optionality on a takeover. Next, 6862 Hong Kong, Haidilao, China's largest hot pot chain. Burry more than doubled his position at HKD 14.16. This one needs context. In 2018, Haidilao IPO'd. In 2020 and 2021, management opened 540 restaurants right into the teeth of China's COVID lockdowns.
They wrote off 2/3 of that capital expenditure. They closed 300 locations, catastrophic. The stock cratered roughly 80% from its 2021 peak. But here is what changed. Haidilao now trades at roughly 17 times trailing earnings, generated about $870 million in free cash flow in 2024, paid out 94% of its earnings as a dividend.
That is roughly a 6% yield, and sits with around 11 billion renminbi in cash and zero financial debt. Almost every restaurant is leased with break clauses, so the cost structure is flexible, better. Haidilao operates with a permanently negative cash conversion cycle. Customers pay before suppliers do.
The company runs on 5 billion renminbi of interest-free supplier and customer float. That is roughly 12% of revenue financed entirely by the supply chain, growing every year. Burry rates Haidilao eight out of 10, a high-conviction buy. He is playing the Chinese consumer recovery, and he is playing it through the only major index in recorded financial history where revenue and earnings actually grew during a 1929-style stock crash.
Multiple compression with rising fundamentals. That is mean reversion fuel. Stock three. Burry opened a brand new position in Tencent at 468 Hong Kong dollars. He has been writing about Tencent for months. He calls it potentially the single most important company to the fabric of Chinese society. From the mid-2000s through 2020, Tencent compounded shareholder capital at about 35% per year.
Then, it went flat for half a decade. Why? Five overlapping disasters. The 2021 regulatory crackdown after Jack Ma criticized Beijing. The November 2021 global bubble pop. China's COVID zero policy, the property crash that wiped out an estimated 5 to 10 trillion dollars in Chinese household wealth, and the ongoing geopolitical risk around Taiwan.
But Tencent is back to double-digit top-line growth. Q1 2026 revenue is guided between 197.9 billion RMB and 201.4 billion RMB. Year-over-year growth of 9.9% to 11.9% Net profit could grow up to 18%. And Tencent invested 18 billion renminbi in AI products in 2025 with plans to more than double that this year.
Building Hunyuan, Yuanbao, and integrating frontier models directly into WeChat and Weixin. Burry bought it on the night the Iran ceasefire was announced after the stock had pulled back with the rest of the Hong Kong market on geopolitical fears. Drop in price, drop in price-to-sales ratio, accelerating revenue growth.
That, in Burry's words, is opportunity. Stock four, Temple & Webster, ticker TPW on the Australian Stock Exchange. Burry more than doubled his position at 5.35 Australian dollars. He said in the post, "I never expected it to fall this far back. Terrific business characteristics and cheap down here." Temple & Webster is Australia's largest pure-play online furniture retailer.
In its half-year FY26 results, revenue rose 19.8% to 375.9 million dollars. Market share hit an all-time high, 2.9% of the entire Australian furniture and homewares market. Cash on the balance sheet, 160 million Australian dollars. Zero debt. The reason the stock is down 60% year-to-date is margin compression.
Net profit collapsed 36% to 5.8 million dollars. The EBITDA margin sits at just 4%. The market is pricing this as a Wayfair-style disaster. Burry is pricing it as a scalable asset-light marketplace approaching its $1 billion revenue target by FY28 with the volume profile of the recent crash showing classic capitulation behavior.
That doubled down 2.96% portfolio position is a bet on Australian e-commerce taking out its prior cycle high. Stock five, Lululemon, ticker LULU. Burry added in the $129 range. He says the position is now 8.2% of the portfolio approaching full conviction sizing. Lululemon stock is down nearly 38% year-to-date.
The reason is brutal. North America comparable sales fell 4%. A roughly $380 million tariff headwind on China-sourced manufacturing crushed gross margins by 550 basis points. Mainland revenue surged 28% and crossed a billion dollars in a single quarter, but that did not matter because the US business is the margin engine.
On top of that, the founder, Chip Wilson, is in an open proxy war with his own board. He is trying to install three independent directors and block the appointment of incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill who was hired out of Nike. O'Neill does not even start until September. Until then, the stock has zero catalysts.
That is exactly when Burry buys. He calls the summer, quote, a vacuum. No catalysts, no support, no bid. He is buying a premium global brand at a small-cap multiple before anybody else realizes what they are looking at. Now, here is the part that ties it all together. While Burry was loading up on those five names, he was also adding aggressively to his shorts.
He more than added to to SOXX January 2027 strike 330 puts at $14. The SOXX is the iShares semiconductor ETF. Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, Micron, the entire AI infrastructure trade in one ticker. Currently trading at a price to earnings ratio of 60.92. Burry was explicit. Quote, FOMO is clearly in play.
These companies are getting dozens of years of earnings added to their valuations within the span of days because the next year or two looks locked and loaded. These are semiconductors. They will cycle hard. Then there is Palantir, PLTR. Burry opened the short ahead of Palantir's earnings release. And after hours, Palantir reported 85% year-over-year revenue growth and 104% US revenue growth.
Stock collapsed anyway, down $10.12 to 135.91. The math is impossible. Palantir's market cap of over $350 billion is greater than Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman combined. Three titans of US defense with 38 times the revenue and roughly 30 times the earnings. Trading at a PE ratio of 152.
Burry is short the December 2026 $100 puts and the January 2027 $50 puts. He is publicly betting the stock cuts in half by next year. And he is openly considering a short on Intel. Quote, Intel as the poster child for the top would be poetic. That is not a price target trade. That is a thesis trade.
Burry thinks the AI capex cycle is approaching its 1907 electricity moment. The year capacity grew 375% against demand growth of 280% and Edison was forced into a JP Morgan merger. Now, the comment section under Burry's post is where it gets really interesting. 70 comments. His subscribers pushed back hard and his answers were sharper than the post itself.
First, the Intel pushback. A subscriber named I J, an Intel shareholder since the stock was $20, argued that Lip Bu Tan is the real deal as CEO, that the foundry is currently priced for zero, that Apple is going to sign on as a foundry customer, that the upcoming 14A node is going to be a successful inflection point.
Burry did not argue. He just replied, quote, yes, it plays into the narrative very well. A backhanded agreement. He sees the bull case. He thinks it makes the short sweeter, not weaker. Second, the Trump intervention thread. A subscriber named Tyler Haskell asked Burry directly how he reconciles his short positions against an administration that, in his words, is, quote, front running any volatility in the indices and using various tools to trigger strong rebounds off minor dips.
Another subscriber, Steve Lombardi, replied bluntly, intervene? Don't you mean manipulate? Burry did not answer that one publicly, but the trade itself does. Wall Street analysts have already started pricing in a so-called Trump put into 2026 valuations. Burry is buying puts that do not expire until 2027.
He is positioned to ride out anything between now and then. Third, and this is the spicy one. Burry called out the analyst who copied his thesis. Quote from his post, I saw Jefferies initiated with a price target of $70 on Palantir and cited my thesis. Well, the analyst did not cite me, but the words sounded familiar.
A subscriber named Eddie named the analyst directly. Brent Thill at Jefferies. Burry did not deny it. The Burry put on Palantir is now Wall Street consensus, just without his name attached to it. Fourth, a subscriber named Matt asked Burry very politely if he could include a portfolio pie chart at the end of each post, just to make it easier to follow.
Burry refused. Quote, "Such an image would immediately be shared and spread all over social media." He went dark from the SEC for a reason. He is not about to let an aggregator do for free what Bloomberg paid analysts to do for years. The pie chart never comes. And fifth, a subscriber pointed out he was missing Constellation Software, the legendary Canadian software roll-up.
Burry's response was three words long. "I do rank it high." He is looking at it. He just hasn't pulled the trigger. Yet. Pull back and look at the full picture. Indices at all-time highs, volatility crushed, the Nasdaq at the highest price-to-sales ratio in its recorded history, a war in the Middle East just ended, the president openly committed to the stock market through the midterms, every macro signal screaming risk on.
And on that exact day, Michael Burry executed three doublings in a single session, opened a brand new position in the most important Chinese internet company in the world, added aggressively to a beaten-down apparel name fighting an open proxy war, and loaded up on puts against semiconductors and AI data center darlings.
He is not positioned for the rally. He is positioned for what comes after the rally. You don't have to copy any of this. He has been early before. He has been wrong before. The 2023 short of the S&P and Nasdaq closed at a real loss because the market kept ripping. His timing is frequently early, sometimes by years.
That is a real documented risk. But the framework, multiple compression, supply gluts, mean reversion, asymmetric payoffs, is the same framework that worked in 2008. And right now, with the NASDAQ at the highest valuation in its recorded history, and the big short himself doubling down on the unloved corners of the market, that framework is pointing in exactly one direction. .
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