저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 주식시장은 '약간' 고평가가 아니라 충격적으로 고평가된 초거품 상태라는 주장. 나스닥 급등과 투기주 붕괴(종목 40%가 50% 이상 하락)는 붕괴 시작의 신호이며, S&P500이 고점 대비 50% 하락할 가능성이 높다고 봄. 인플레이션과 금리 상승이 밸류에이션을 압박하고, 연준이 결국 강하게 대응할 것이라 전망. 미국 외 시장은 상대적으로 덜 고평가되어 하락도 덜하고 먼저 반등할 수 있다고 언급. 현금 보유와 고평가 시장 회피를 권고.
다듬은 글
the US is not moderately overpriced it is shockingly overpriced I think they'll do pretty well by selling whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles Jeremy Grantham is a renowned figure in the investment World distinguished by his expertise in long-term value invest M strategies known for his commitment to sustainable investment approach us he emphasizes the influence of environmental factors on investment decisions additionally he's recognized for his warnings about excessive valuations and market bubbles today I'm sharing Jeremy grantham's most watched interview of all time with you I kindly request you to watch the interview until the end if you understand and interpret this interview well you'll gain a comprehensive understanding of the current economic situation in the United States the trajectory of the stock market and Concepts like inflation and recession you'll undoubtedly agree with me once you've watched the interview in its entirety if you'd like to see more of such interviews don't forget to like my video and mention it in the comments let's dive into the interview the US is not moderately overpriced it is shockingly overpriced I think they'll do pretty well by selling whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist being there done that myself a few decades ago made a fortune and wiped myself out very salutary and I would wish on most of you that you avoid it it's crossed off all the boxes it's done all the things that are super bubble typically does and it could uh start its way down any time and perhaps a month ago it needs a long bull market and we had 11 years so the longest in history it needs a lot of crazy behavior and we had some of the great crazy behavior of all time I think they'll be telling these stories in 20 years it needs to accelerate at the end of a bubble that's something like three times the average rate of the bull market and it did that from covid on upwards the NASDAQ more than doubled and it it went up well over three times the normal rate and finally a thing that is unique to the super bubbles the two or three that just keep going and going is that at the end the speculative stocks start to peel off and even on the upside for the broad Market they start to go down and that started early last year the super duper specs the worst of them all started to decline and then one by one they fell in and started to drop and as we sit today something like 40% of all the NASDAQ stocks are down over 50% which is pretty amazing since it's only the other day the S&P was at its alltime high nothing is certain in life but I would say that is the beginning of the Burst when the specs that typically go up quite a lot more than the market go down as the market goes up so the S&P went up 25% last year and a lot of the most speculative stocks were already going down that is very rare it happened in 1929 it happened in 1972 before the very big decline then it happened in 2000 before the tech Wipeout so you're saying we are at the beginning of a crash I would say it is likely that we are I think it would be unlikely that the market would not come down by 50% from its peak the broad Market the S&P and it would be unusual if the specs did not do worse than that the problem is is it slow or is it quick grantham's Stark analysis of the current market is alarming but grounded in historical precedent the idea of a Super Bubble may sound extreme but when you dissect the ingredients of past bubbles such as the dotom crash of 2000 or the housing collapse of 2008 the parallels become clear in the tech bubble of 2000 for example we saw the NASDAQ climb to unprecedented Heights only to crash spectacularly when investors finally realized that many of the high-flying internet stocks had no sustainable business model this chart shows how quickly those gains evaporated Grantham points out that today's market has the same characteristics a long bull market fueled by speculative fervor extreme valuations and a disconnect between the broader market and the performance of individual stocks take the NASDAQ today while the index overall is near record highs nearly 40% of its stocks have lost more than 50% of their value from their peaks that kind of Divergence where the market as a whole seems strong but many underlying stocks are in freef fall is a classic signal of a bubble on the verge of bursting Grandam sees this as the first sign that the bubble has begun to deflate but here's what's really worrying Grantham expects the broad Market the S&P 500 to drop by 50% that's no small correction historically when markets drop by that much the recovery can take years for instance after the 2008 crash it took the S&P 5 years to recover to its previous High the question investors should be asking themselves isn't whether this is the top but how prepared they are for the aftermath the U stimulus program left a lot of money in individual hands for buying the dip and they have been throwing money this year individuals at the dips they have probably never invested more rapidly than they have this year and despite that of course the market is down but they have a lot of money they're pretty well funded corporations many corporations are doing well the economy isn't too bad so this could be turn out to be quite a struggle where slowly but surely the market has to readjust to higher and higher rates and higher inflation it will not give up I suspect too easily but we'll fight it out if you look at the real estate market all real estate markets pretty well around the world are uh very very high and if you look at the bond market of course interest rates are incredibly low and bond are incredibly high but when it comes to the stock market rather like 2000 and the tech bubble this is more an American Affair than anything else outside America the world is merely overpriced ham it's often overpriced it's usually not that dangerous in the US however we have an extreme overpricing extreme crazy behavior and I think we're in a rather dangerous Equity bubble so there is a decent chance that Australia the UK Japan there some fairly reasonably priced countries if they come down in sympathy they'll come down a lot less and probably rally Grantham highlights a crucial Point here this isn't just a stock market issue it's a multi-asset bubble real estate bonds and even Commodities are all Riding High largely due to the flood of liquidity That central banks have pumped into the system over the past decade in fact if you look at housing prices in the US they've surged at an unprecedented rate low interest rates and government stimulus have made borrowing cheap fueling a buying frenzy in housing but as Grantham notes this kind of broad-based bubble makes the situation even more precarious when the bubble bursts it won't just affect stocks it could hit real estate markets bonds and other assets as well investors who have Diversified across these asset classes might feel safe but when everything is overvalued there's no true diversification what's even more troubling is that while markets outside the US may be overpriced they're not as inflated as the US market this means that when the correction comes Global markets might not fall as hard as the US in fact as Grantham suggests some markets May rally sooner offering better investment opportunities for those looking to avoid the brunt of a us- Centric market crash this bubble in the US is eily similar to the 2000 Tech bubble it's led by the NASDAQ was led by the specs 2000 the specs underperformed all year and the S&P continued to climb it is just possible that the S&P will rally to a new high I think it is impossible that the specs will so I think think the game has started and uh it will play out perhaps rather like a 2000 historically the stock market has hated inflation it crushes price earnings ratios this time uniquely it did not inflation started roared through the roof and the Pees continued to rise nothing like that had happened before and we have a model that goes back to 1925 and there are two factors that determine price earnings ratios or the price level of the market one of them is profit margins of course it loves them and the other is inflation of course it hates it grantham's comparison to the 2000 bubble is particularly insightful the tech bubble saw the rise of speculative stocks that lost touch with fundamentals and when they finally crashed the broader Market followed today speculative stocks what Grantham refers to as specs are playing a similar role meme stocks specs and even cryptocurrency have captured the imagination of retail investors pushing their prices to unsustainable levels but unlike the tech bubble where inflation wasn't a significant factor we now have inflation roaring at multi-decade highs historically inflation is the stock market's worst enemy it compresses price SL earnings ratios as investors demand higher returns to offset the rising cost of living yet as Grantham points out the current market has Shrugged off inflation fears but how long can that last this is where Grant anthem's point about profit margins becomes crucial if inflation continues to rise companies will see their input costs increase squeezing profit margins and when margins shrink so do earnings leading to lower stock prices this is the classic recipe for a market correction and we've already seen the early signs of it and if that seeps into the market in the usual way it will mercilessly depress the price earnings ratios and In the End the Fed doesn't like to get on the bad side of the administration politically inflation is De the average person in the street notices it measures it if anything exaggerates it but even with that exaggeration it's painful and politically very very tough on the voting pattern and therefore the administration really wants to do everything it can to get inflation down so it will be discreetly leaning on the FED to do what it can there are people who spend their entire lives watching the fed and going into the nuances of quarter points and half points and I do not I am confident that they will move at the stronger end of the range I am confident they will try very hard to make sure that inflation does not become embedded grantham's prediction that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to intervene is rooted in political and economic reality inflation is a deeply political issue and Rising prices hit everyday consumers the hardest as inflation climbs public pressure mounts on politicians to take action and the easiest tool at their disposal is the fed's monetary policy however raising interest rates is a double-edged sword while it can help control inflation it also risks slowing down economic growth and triggering a recession this delicate Balancing Act is what makes the current market so dangerous the fed's next moves will be critical and as Grantham suggests they may find themselves behind the curve in conclusion Jeremy grantham's warnings are not to be taken lightly history has shown us time and time again that bubbles especially super bubbles end in painful Corrections whether it's the tech bubble of 2000 or the housing crash of 2008 the signs are clear and the current market Bears all the Hallmarks of another looming disaster for investors the key takeaway is caution Grantham emphasizes the importance of holding cash reserves and staying out of overpriced markets the temptation to chase returns at the peak of a bubble is strong but as Grantham wisely advises resisting that urge is the best way to avoid fin ruin so there you have it make sure to hit that subscribe button because it is my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors talk to you again soon
Comments 0