저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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로저스는 미국 증시가 역사상 가장 긴 상승장을 기록 중이라 과열 신호로 보고 주식 대부분을 매도했으며 현금(주로 달러)을 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이라 펀더멘털이 나쁘다고 평가. 중국 증시는 저평가 상태라 보유 중이며, 우즈베키스탄 등 신흥시장에 관심. 귀금속은 은을 금보다 선호(은은 고점 대비 약 40% 하락), 밀·원유·면화 등 원자재 분산을 권고. 과거 일본 증시는 35년 하락 후 반등한 사례로 언급. 금융 안정성 리스크 지역으로 우즈베키스탄을 지목. 패널 질의에서는 중국 증시 민간기업 비중 감소 지적에 대해 확신은 없다고 답변.
다듬은 글
I'll use America since that's the largest stock market the American Stock Market has been going up for the longest in American history never in American history has the economy and the stock market done so well for so long maybe it's going to go on forever Washington says it will don't worry but when Washington says don't worry I worry I'm delighted to be here yes my name is Jim Rogers but I don't have a job so so maybe I shouldn't be here I don't know I know we cannot talk too much about that but I will say to you as far as investing is concern in other places at the moment I'll use America since that's the largest stock market the American Stock Market has been going up for the longest in American history never in American history has the economy and the stock market done so well for so long maybe it's going to go on forever Washington says it will don't worry but when Washington says don't worry I worry I worry a lot so as far as my investments are concerned I have sold nearly all stocks all over the world the only places I still have sh shares or China the China stock market is depressed it's one of the few stock markets in the world is depressed and usbekistan usbekistan is an old Soviet whatever they call them Soviet economy which was ruined by the Russians now it's changing and so usbekistan may be an extremely exciting place to make money China may be too so other than that I am worried about the world I will repeat the US Stock Market has had no problems for the longest in American history so I'm very very worried about what to do with my money I have a lot of cash and I have the cash mainly in US Dollars the reason I have it I mean the US is a terrible place as far as fundamentals the US is the largest deor nation in the history of the world and it's getting worse every day so you will Pro you should say well why do you own US Dollars and the reason I own US dollars is because when the turmoil comes people will look for a safe haven and many people that think think the US is a safe haven it's not we're the largest deor nation in history but because people think it's a safe haven the US dollar will go up if it happens that way I'm hope I'm smart enough enough to sell and now one of these smart panelists is going to say well what are you going to do with the money then and I don't have an answer maybe you have an answer I don't know where to put my money when I sell my US dollars so we will listen to them to find out Jim Rickards brings up a crucial concern about the US Stock Market how it's been on the longest Bull Run in history this isn't just a record it's a red flag think about it nothing grows forever and when it does it's usually followed by a sharp correction let's not forget we've seen this movie before remember 2000 in the Doom bubble or the 2008 crash both times markets hit record highs just before everything came tumbling down when the market seems too good to be true that's exactly when we should worry it's a real pleasure to share these videos with you all if you enjoyed the content it would mean the world to me if you could take a moment to like the video subscribe and share your thoughts in the comments your support truly motivates me to create more thank you so much for your time and kindness Rickards also talks about holding US Dollars despite the us being the largest dead or Nation this seems paradoxical right but it makes sense when you consider a global investor psychology in times of Crisis people flock to what they perceive as safe and for many that's still the US dollar look at the 2008 financial crisis the dollar surged despite the economic chaos it's like seeking shelter in a house that's already on fire because it's the only shelter you know but here's something we need to explore further diversification especially in overlooked markets Rickards mentions China and usbekistan now these aren't places most investors rush to but sometimes the best opportunities come from where others aren't looking a chart showing stock market valuations of countries like China versus the US would be eye openening China's stock market for instance has been trading at a lower price to earnings ratio compared to the US for years which might indicate a potential for growth compare that to the S&P 500 where valuations are historically high it's a start contrast and finally the most significant lesson here isn't just about where to put your money it's about understanding that every Market cycle has its end whether it's tomorrow or in a year the key is to be ready having cash on hand isn't a bad thing it's about patience and timing but where do you move after that that's the real question every investor should be asking right now and the answer isn't as simple as it once was uh Jim back to you I'll ask you two questions one about China One about the US and they're kind of fous questions uh the first one is about China and I'm sure you get this question all the time don't you get tired of staying in China because the stock market has not been great uh in recent times and you know people say cin ping doesn't like business and probably he has a say on what happens in China so what drives your continued optimism about China well I will hasten to tell you again I make many mistakes and I have made many mistakes in my life if if you want me to I will tell you about my first wife oh my God what a mistake that was so I have made many mistakes but as I look around the world China is one of the few countries if not the only which is rising China has had in its history has been on top three or four times it has collapsed three or four times in history in my view it is now Rising again and the Chinese market is depressed most stock markets around the world at the moment are at their alltime high or near their alltime High China is depressed that doesn't mean it's a place to buy but as far as I can see the Chinese government is trying to revive economy and to revive the country and I don't see any other markets that are depressed enough for me to buy the United States is at an all-time high the Japanese Market was down for 35 years that is not a typo 35 years now it's gone up it's making new highs again I sold my Japanese shares I sold them too soon but I don't see many markets now that are depressed other than China so I for the most part am not investing in shares in many places around the world but China is depressed does that mean I'm right of course not of course not but it is depressed and maybe I have some a little bit of protection because it is depressed so just spending one more minute about this uh you said it's a depressed Market that assumes it's a market uh when we look at the share of private sector companies uh in listed market caps in China actually that goes down not not up if you look at the last three years uh the share of s soes in the market cap aggregate market cap of the top 100 listed Chinese companies has gone sharply up not down are you confident at the market I'm not confident of anything can't tell you I'm always worried I'm always afraid when I make an investment oh my gosh am I going to make a mistake no I wish it were that easy wouldn't it be wonderful if I could just buy shares and know that I will make money no I'm always worried and I am worried about my Chinese Investments right now but if I look at Japan if I look at America these are two major economies where the stock markets at an all-time high China's not at an all-time high is that mean I'm going to make money of course not but I don't see any other markets in the world right now that are somewhat down Jim brings up an interesting point about China While most of the world's markets including the US and Japan are at or near all-time highs China's Market remains depressed this contrast is striking historically Market lows often present buying opportunities but China is a unique case due to the heavy influence of state-owned Enterprises s soes and the government's control over the economy Jim's confidence isn't rooted in blind optimism but in the potential upside of a market that's been systematically beaten down while the rest of the world continues to soar however there's a legitimate question here can we really trust China's stock market as a traditional market with the increasing dominance of s soes private companies are losing ground just in the last 3 years the share of s soes in China's top 100 companies has surged which means the government has a tighter RP on the economy this isn't your typical free market system where businesses Thrive based on Innovation or consumer demand it's a managed economy and that makes predicting outcomes even trickier but Jim's perspective reminds me of one thing all investors face risk no one invests with absolute certainty even the most well- researched decision comes with a degree of fear and uncertainty we saw this with Japan's Market which stagnated for 35 years and now it's surging again so if you're going to take a risk why not do it in a market that hasn't already hit its peak a graph showing the Divergence between China's market and the S&P 500 or Japan's Nik index would highlight just how wide this Gap is the key takeaway is that sometimes the most undervalued or depressed markets can offer the greatest potential but they also come with significant risk that's the Paradox of investing High rewards often follow High uncertainty so my next question is not about usbekistan it's about the US and you alluded to the ability of the us to be Safe Haven that people come to when there is a crisis one aspect of that is what uh now late uh French Minister called the exorbitant privilege the fact that the US can borrow a lot and there's always uh you know a demand for its debt now the US is making a lot of use of its exorbitant privilege these days there uh the deficits are out of control the debt is out of control the fiscal situation is unsustainable on basically any reasonable uh uh yard stick do you if it's unsustainable will it continue to be sustained well first of all you use the word Safe Haven I don't ever use the word safe when I'm talking about Investments I don't know anything that's safe if you do hooray tell me write it down give me a note no there's no such thing as a safe haven safe investment when you're talking about money and investment so my strong advice to all of you is only investing what you yourself know a lot about if I tell you to invest in usbekistan and you cannot find usbekistan on a map do not invest in usbekistan stay with what you know I am American I know a little bit about America but I know that the American Stock markets at an all-time high I don't like to invest in things that are an all-time high I know your parents Tau you to buy low and sell High I there many markets in the world I mean I invest in Commodities at times but even Commodities I mean gold is at an all-time high gold has never been this high if you want to invest in Precious Metals I would suggest you invest in silver I own silver I would buy more silver today see I wish show you he's taking notes here this is not this is not a gift this is just an example we're watching but silver is down 40% from its all-time high gold is at an alltime high I own both but I would buy silver today because if the world has a big problem again many people will go to Precious Metals I'm an old peasant and all of us peasants know no we need some silver in the closet we need some gold under the bed but there are other things cotton wheat oil many other kinds of Commodities and in the world in which we live today I had rather own Commodities and stocks in most countries in the world but their bonds their currencies you can invest in US dollar if you want to invest in currencies I hope all of you will learn about the other Investments besides just stocks in Korea or stocks in America because there are many ways to make money and I would urge you to start thinking about maybe some other things uh I'd like each of you to uh give a very brief response to a very complex question um where in the world at this point do you see Financial stability risk well I will go back to who um the world right now most financial markets are booming and in my experience when everybody's happy it's a time for me to worry the one of the few places that I know is who's bistan usbekistan was a Soviet Republic it was ruined by the Russians it was ruined by the Communists but now there's a new crowd of people in usbekistan who are running things the way that a meal would run things maybe that's right maybe not but if you cannot find usbekistan on a map do not invest in usbekistan you must invest in what you know if you're going to be successful Jim raises an intriguing point about the so-called exorbitant privilege of the US dollar a term coined by the late French Finance Minister valer jcar dang the US can seemingly borrow indefinitely because the world trusts it currency but here's the reality trust can be Fragile the US national debt is ballooning the fiscal deficit keeps growing and at some point this imbalance becomes unsustainable the question isn't whether the US can keep borrowing but for how long let's zoom out for a second we've seen this before historically Empires that relied too heavily on debt such as Spain in the 16th century or Britain after World War II eventually saw their economic influence decline the US despite its current dominance isn't immune to the for of economic gravity Jim's cautious optimism about silver and commodities reflects this historical perspective precious metals particularly silver have long been considered a hedge against uncertainty while gold is sitting at record highs silver as Jim points out is still 40% below its peak which suggests the potential buying opportunity but here's something even more fascinating gyms call for diversification into Commodities like wheat oil and cotton isn't just about dodging overvalued stocks it's about grounding your investments in the tangible realities of global demand Commodities aren't abstract financial instruments they're foundational to economies for example oil isn't just a trade it Powers everything from factories to transport wheat isn't just a chart it's food security AS Global Supply chains become more fragile and inflationary pressures rise Commodities could very well be the safest most practical assets to hold Jim's approach boils down to the simple Timeless truth invest in what you know if you can't find usbekistan on a map don't invest there it's not about chasing the hottest Trends or jumping on the bandwagon it's about understanding where you put your money this resonates with the age-old wisdom of patience diligence and preparation qualities that have defined successful investors across Generations so there you have it make sure to hit that subscribe button because it is my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors talk to you again soon
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